Can the Democrats win the senate in 2004?

[sweetheart]

If we could pull this off, as well as the executive, it would VASTLY change our hopes of stemming the barbarian tide.

Are particular races up for grabs... geesh, these races themselves if they could turn things, might be as important as the presidency.

[Mistress Quickly]

1. Zell Miller's seat in GA

but the Democratic party can't find a candidate to run, so it will probably go "R". Like that would be a difference. :eyes:

[spotbird]

3. Someone beg Max to give it another try.

They won't be able to attack him in the same way and get away with it this time.

He could win.

[Adapter44]

5. What???

How can you not find someone to run? Surely some dem in the region would want to.

[Bush loves Jiang]

27. wtf? It take smore than 5 years to demolish 135 years of political control

Why are they giving up?

[lastknowngood]

2. NO we will be stuck with

either a repug 2/3 majority or effectively one counting the DINOs

[auburnblu]

4. If the job market stays really weak maybe

The economy seems to be the number one issue for voters. If jobs continue to be offshored and the unemployment rate bumps up, the senate could change hands.

[Silverhair]

10. National security will be the main issue.

I guess you forgot about 9-11.

[yankeeinlouisiana]

6. Louisiana's Breaux is retiring

I believe it's this year, but haven't heard much about it down here.

Several people are expected to run for it.

Chris John is a democrat, but to the right of Breaux. I'm not sure if that would help us. But it would be another one in the "D" column. Breaux wants him to run for his seat, but John isn't sure if he wants to run.

Bobby Jindal, (he ran for governor on the repuke ticket and lost), is thinking about moving to Metairie (suburb of New Orleans) to run for David Vitter's seat. Vitter is thinking of running for Breaux's seat also. Vitter is a right-winged idiot. I don't think he'll win. Look for the name Jindal in the future.

Richard Ieyoub is also thinking about running. He's a democrat and not too bad. He ran for governor, but lost the primary to our current Gov. Kathleen Blanco. I think he's a little bit left of Breaux and I really think he would have a chance down here.

The Senate is very important for us to take back. I hope we can!

[David__77]

7. Jindal would lose again.

He has certain weaknesses among the voters of LA.

[Bush loves Jiang]

28. A friend of mine is really in tune with the political scene there...

Bush ain't too popular. :)

[Bandit]

8. I have a hunch Bush* will have very long coattails

Many Republicans that still have a little grey matter left will just not vote because of their extreme dislike for what Bush* has done. If that is the case then many seats that normally would have been "safe" seats will now be up for grabs. We could very well win back all of Congress because republicans are not all fascists.

[spotbird]

23. He will have coattails only if he allows another attack.

That is quite possible and may be his only hope.

The October "capture" of OBL will give him a bump, but since Afghanistan will still be a disaster then, it may not put * over the top.

[Toots]

33. I think the poster was saying the coattails would be negative

Because of the intense dislike of Bush* a lot of Republicans will just not bother to vote which could mean we may win a lot of Congressional seats which otherwise would have been considered safe. That was my understanding of the post anyway. Hope he is right. :-)

[Silverhair]

9. Very little chance.

Most of the open seats were we have guys retiring are in strong red states. Sorry, fact of life. No amount of wishful thinking is going to change that.

[mandyky]

11. I think a big help would be

for all the presidential candidates between May and August while they are waiting for the convention to go to states with Dem candidates that need help to go and help. We have to make sure that even if shrub gets elected that we have checks and balances via Congress - not just the Senate, but the House to - or there won't be a country left by 2008. It is just that serious and it requires more than a change in the WH occupant.

[calimary]

15. What we really need to do is win back the HOUSE.

The House of Reps is where you start serious impeachment proceedings. And assuming we have no republi-CON president to impeach as of 2005, they could still launch investigations against the past administration, and hold it accountable.

[LostInTheMaise]

35. Lets hope that's a moot point

When 2005 rolls around we should have a Dem in office and the nasty business of impeachment should not be needed.

[JDPhD]

12. No Chance

The margin is currently 51 to 48. 51 to 49 if you count the Independent Jeffords from Vermont as a Dem.

Fitzgerald's seat in Illinois is the only currently Repub seat this a likely pick up for the Dems.

Murkowski's Repub seat in Alaska is also vulnerable, but Alaska is a heavily Republican state. Odds are they will hold on to it.

In Oklahoma, Repub Nickles is retiring and the Dems have a strong candidate, but, again, it is a heavily Repub state and the odds are they will hold on.

On the other side, 5 incumbent Dem Senators in the south are retiring. Three of those seats are in states trending heavily Repub--Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina. All three are likely Dem losses.

Florida will also have an open seat. Though a closer call than the three southern seats mentioned above, it leans Repub too. They dominate the state legislature and Jeb won reelection easily. If they settle on a decent candidate, odds are it is another Repub pick up.

The last southern seat, in Louisiana is a toss up. Though trending Repub, Louisiana has not completely converted from its old Democratic machine. It just depends on who the candidates are.

There will also be a surprising upset or two. There always is. Maybe Murray in Washington or Spector in Pa. Maybe Boxer in Cali, or Reid in Nevada, or Feingold in Wisconsin, or even Daschle. The problem is, almost all these long shot races involve Dem incumbents. Almost all the Repub seats seem solidly safe.

So, based on all the above, the best guess right now is that the Dems will pick up Illinois, but the Repubs will pick up 4 out of 5 of the southern seats plus an unexpected upset. This gives the Repubs a net gain of four seats. And the balance in the Senate would then be 55 Repubs to 44 Dems. If you throw in Jeffords and a couple of DINOs, the effective voting balance on critical issues--such as filibustering judges--will be 57 to 43. The Dems ability to block stuff will be tenuous.

I think the best case scenario for the Dems is to win Illinois and Alaska, hold both Florida and Louisiana, and get one surprise win elsewhere. That is a wash, and the Repubs will still hold the Senate 51 to 48 (49 counting Jeffords).

These are just realistic guesses as things currently stand. But, of course, things could change by November--through scandal, death, sudden retirements, or a total Bush collapse. But we can't bet on any of those things. So get used to having a Repub Senate, even if we have a Dem Pres.

[goobergunch]

13. Incidentally

If Kerry is the nominee we lose another seat - Massachusetts is a Republican governor.

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[Yupster]

18. Maybe pessimistic

I agree that gaining seats would be a stretch, but I think a loss of 1-2 is more in order.

The biggest problem is just that of the three classes of senators that run each two years, this upcoming one is the toughest for the Democrats. There are more Democrats running so of course less chances for pick-ups.

Also, more Democrats are leaving than Republicans.

Also, more of the contested races will be in the south.

But, I think it is reasonable that the five southern seats could only lose 2-3 seats. I think gains can be made in Illinois and Oklahoma. I'm also skeptical about Alaska.

I also see Daschle as more vulnerable than others seem to.

Anyway, my guess is a loss of two seats for a 53-46-1 senate.

[spotbird]

19. You are wrong that Illinois is the only possible pick-up.

Brad Carson in Oklahoma is a sleeper. He is basically a Republican in his politics, but he'd caucus with the Democrats.

[sweetheart]

24. That you are a polysci professor emeritus

makes your opinion especially important to me, just how do you explain the range of thinking on this thread... and were it a matter of life and death for you at the democratic party HQ, and you were to unleash the dogs of war to win where we MUST win, can you be more specific of how to overturn the pessimistic forcast?

[MisterC2003]

32. Don't refight the last election

Things are different now. We've been through three years of economic hell (a jobless recovery is the same thing as no recovery for most folks). People are sick and tired of it, and they blame the Pubbies. Look for the Pubbies to try to counter with security issues, but short of an American city gettng nuked (a distinct possibilty, if that's what it takes to get Bush reelected) the real loss of jobs, income and opportunity for folks in the red states will win out over distant fears of angry Ay-rabs. All we need to do is have the Dems pound in the point over and over : "We will fix the economy. We will not suck up to the rich guy and give middle class voters the shaft like Bush has. We won't invite every last foreigner in to take your jobs, and we'll give corporations incentives NOT to ship your jobs overseas."

We could take Ga. back with that one, possibly a few other pubbie "strongholds" as well.

[ButterflyBlood]

26. dcpoliticalreport.com...

has us on current polls losing two seats (South Carolina and Georgia) and gaining two (Illinois and Alaska). We also have a sleeper chance in Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Missouri.

Here's a not too long shot prediction: We pick up Illinois, Alaska, and one sleeper. We lose two (probably Georgia and another Southern state). the result is a +1 pickup. We win back the White House. The Senate's 50-50, with a Dem VP being the tiebreaker. Also then we could possibly lure Lincoln Chaffee over. Not impossible to take it back.

[OKHRANA]

30. you forgot to mention the possibility of another Senatorial plane crash...

a week or two before a critical Senate election, this time due to a tropical storm in Louisiana. You never know. Stranger things have happenned.

Plus extra left over Bush campaign money.

Things might get worse, much worse, with Iran too, and you know how the people tend to unite behind a President in times of "national crisis" and if that happens in October, maybe that will give Bush some real long coat tails, maybe enough for a Filibuster proof majority.

this would mean the end of abortion rights, a direct pass to any and all judges, privatization of social security, and the end of democracy as we know it.

[Woodstock]

38. For God's sake, I hope they travel by train if they have a lead

I'm serious. They are likely safe if they are behind or even. But if the Dem candidates pull ahead in tight races, I hope they stick to train travel. Definitely stay away from private/small planes. I can't believe I'm saying stuff like this, and not even feeling paranoid. I just don't trust these people at all - they have no morals.

[Woodstock]

37. That is incredibly depressing

Without filibusters, the Dems will be completely powerless. Zero checks and balances. One very corrupt party in complete control. There will be nothing left of the country our founders created by 2008. Nothing left of our civil liberties, nothing left of our environment, nothing left at all for working people. The country will be so far in debt and so mired in wars (complete with a draft), world stability will be affected. And Bush will have nothing to lose - no need to even attempt to con people. It's going to be a one party system, the party of the corporation. These will be the darkest days in American history.

[CalebHayes]

14. I bet it will be a sweep either way.

Who ever wins the presidency will win the senate.

[rockymountaindem]

16. Everybody go to Gary Hart's website

and ask him to run for Senate in Colorado. He can win there and knock out Campbell. We need him to run.

[mohc]

17. Latest indications

Most of the seats up this year are safe. The Dem seats at risk are:

GA, NC, SC, FL, LA, and if Giuliani runs, NY.

Rep seats at risk are

AK, OK, PA, IL, and KY.

State leanings aside, the latest polls show the Dem ahead in NC, FL, LA, and AK. Somehow, early polls show OK close, 41-38, and thats by a Republican polling group. The one poll taken a while back in GA had Atlanta Mayor Franklin leading the Repubican, but its doubtful she will run anyway. IL and KY are actually starting to look more and more like Republican holds instead of pick-ups, Ryan is barely leading Hynes in the lastest polls.

My expectation is that as the election nears, we will be in danger of losing GA and SC, and they will be in danger of losing AK and IL. If the Democrats can either protect one of those seats, or go after PA, we could bring the senate to a tie, and then winning the White House would give us the Senate.

[welshTerrier2]

20. According to the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee

source: http://www.dscc.org/Races/poll

If The Elections Were Held Today, Recent Public Polling Shows Democrats would be at 51 seats

the info doesn't indicate how current the polls are ... pretty good news if it's true, eh ??

[Yupster]

25. Shocking

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee predicts they will pick up seats. Wow.

In another shocking twist, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee predicts they will pick up seats too.

I think I'd take my own predictions above either of them.

[spotbird]

21. The stock market may not accommodate * either.

We are in a period of irrational exuberance. Low interest rates make the market look good, but what is going on now is the mother of all sucker rallies.

It will crash, maybe in time to have some good come of it.

[Mr.Green93]

22. don't say can

say when "the Democrats win the senate in 2004"

[JCMach1]

29. I have always said it would take a major shift to win in 2004

My prediction--

IF we win, we take back the Senate and gain seats in the House (perhaps barely enough to swich power). Redistricting is going to screw us over however.

[Iverson]

31. can happen, but will not happen

In order for the Democrats to win back the Senate, Mr. and Mrs. Middle America will need to see the Democrats as a constructive alternative to the Republicans.

Those who aren't political junkies see the Democrats through the prism of the mainstream media, for the most part. They will understand the Dems as not liking Bush, but beyond that the message is unfocused.

[OKHRANA]

34. Bush also controls a lot of the media

he can cause some kind of international incident to happen, distracting public attention or even scaring it into public unity behind a president.

[gate of the sun]

36. maybe if the vote

is free of fraud.

[Woodstock]

39. whatever happened with the Georgia 2002 elections

They had instituted black box voting, and several Dem favorites, who were ahead just before the election, surprisingly lost.

[LoneStarLiberal]

40. Far More Important Than Presidency

With redistricting passing a bullshit muster here in Texas, the House is going to be lost to us for quite some time.

I think we're going to be looking at a 4 year lame duck situation even if we win the Presidency if we don't get behind our Democratic candidates for these open Senate seats. Here's my breakdown:

North Carolina: Depends on whether you believe Edwards about his chances for re-election or whether you believe some of the state polls. It's going to be close for us, and Erskine Bowles has lost a NC Senate race once before.

South Carolina: Looks like our best bet to keep any of these five seats. Inez Tannenbaum looks really good and so far I haven't heard of a decent Republican challenger.

Florida: The Bushies are throwing the kitchen sink into this race, sending Mel Martinez down from on high (HUD Secretary) to run. Looks like a crowded field on both sides...too bad Katherine Harris didn't buck the RNC and run anyway.

Georgia: Looks like we're losing this one no matter what. The Republicans have a strong slate of candidates lined up and I haven't heard anything about a Democratic challenger who can stand up, particular after that prick Miller trashed the party.

Louisiana: We have a Representative (U.S. Congress) that looks like he's going to be the guy to run for the seat; ought to do well though you have to wonder if our luck hasn't already run its course in Louisiana. Let's hope not.

So, my scorecard reads: 1 loss-1 win-3 undecided

[Cleita]

41. I think it's going to be hard.

The problem is that the sparsely populated states get two senators like the more populated states. Unfortunately the sparsely populated states vote Republican, so this really tips the Senate in a rightward direction. It's not a true representation of the population.

The House of Representatives is tough too. I know that all the districts in my state have been gerrymandered like they are trying to do in Texas and it's creating more Republican seats than Democratic seats.IMHO