Is there any way to save Iraq?

[jmags]

That's a question I've been asking myself quite a bit recently, and I'm coming to the conclusion that civil or ethnic warfare is inevitable. I had been rather critical of Kucinich's plan to withdraw our troops in 90 days, but I'm coming to believe that regardless of whether our troops, UN troops, NATO troops, any troops are there, it is going to be damn near impossible to get a unified, democratic Iraq.
Just about every time we have seen authoritarian rule by an ethnic minority collapse, that country subsequently sees a backlash in the forms of ethnic violence, civil war, discrimination, etc.
Iraq is a country of three ethnic groups put together by colonial boundaries. We now have Kurds clamoring for an autonomous state, which they have been denied for I don't know how long, the Shiites have been without power despite comprising 60% of the population, and then the Sunnis who will most likely be seen as representatives of the Hussein government whether they had anything to do with Hussein's atrocities or not.
If this situation were not explosive enough, add to the fact that many shiites want a conversion to an Islamic state, when Iraq was one of the rare countries in the mideast where secularism ruled.
Women who had enjoyed western style freedoms relative to Saudi Arabia and Iran are now being beaten in the streets if they are caught without traditional dress - something we don't hear about much in our media as we praise the Iraqi people being free.

Bush seeems to have framed this debate by saying people like myself are suggesting Iraqis are incapable of democracy. That could not be farther from the truth. What I am saying is that history has shown us that it is extremely difficult for a country as divided as Iraq is to switch over to democracy - especially when the timetable for this switch is nicely timed to fit our election patterns. It's not that Iraqi's cannot have a democratic government, but can they have it without more war and division?

So when the Democrats inherit the White House in November, what can they really do to save Iraq from civil war? Simply saying we will internationalize is not enough.

[brokensymmetry]

1. I don't believe we can stop it.

It's as if a large, delicately balanced boulder was started rolling down a mountain. It didn't take much to start it, but nothing can stop it.

The least worst option is to get out while we can. Yes, that means a terrible mess that will take a generation to fully sort itself out, and it means lots of dead Iraqis. I believe all the alternatives are even worse.

[starroute]

2. What about Iraq's neighbors?

They have an interest in maintaining stability in the region -- and it's possible they also might have sufficient influence. Iran, especially, does have close ties with the top Iraqi Shi'ites and would not be well served by an outbreak of civil war in Iraq.

I don't know if it would work, or even if it could be arranged. But it might at least have a chance of success -- where nothing the US or the UN can do as this point has a snowball's chance in hell.

[Snappy]

3. No

It is inevitable. It is beyond any belief that the Neo Fascists didn't see this coming. Can they be that stupid? I feel that they knew this could happen and felt that after the dust settles that the Multi-corps and oil corps would continue business after Iraq was three territories. The plan is to evacuate the troops in July, declare a victory and then blame the Iraqis for not being able to hold a nationwide democracy together. Not the Neo Fascist's fault.

[brokensymmetry]

4. I wonder -

Did they not see it coming? Or did they intend for it to come?

How better to relieve the pressures of population and a non-existent economy than to get a civil war going? Machiavellian, certainly.

[Dirk39]

5. Just some ideas:

The U.S. army has to leave Iraq immediately, being replaced by the U.N. and soldiers from as much countries as possible, who guarantee peace and safety.

An independent group of economists and scientists - and I mean independent - has to calculate, how much damage the U.S., along with all those countries, who did support the embargo and/or the invasion, have done to Iraq. And they have to pay it back, dollar by dollar, euro by euro. The U.S. citizens have to decide, if they want to pay with their tax-money or if they go after the corporations, who did benefit from the war.


It's made 100% sure to the people of Iraq, that their oil is their oil. It should be state-owned, and all the people of Iraq should benefit from it. No contracts are made with foreigns companies or banks, before they did vote. All contracts already made will be canceled. The IMF and the Worldbank are not allowed to interfere. A transparent system of re-destribution will be installed that prevents the use of economic force by any elected government to put any group of iraq-people at a disadvantage.


All these puppets, who have nothing to do with the people of Iraq, leave the country along with the U.S. soldiers.

There are free elections, with one exception: the rights of all minorities must be accepted - religious, racial, political. A fundamentalist islamistic government isn't accepted, even if the majority of the people - probably the Shiites - would vote for it. Islam is allowed to be the official religion, but every single iraq citizen, who isn't religious or has another religion has guaranteed rights and is protected by law.

An international group of lawyers is given insight into all the relevant papers and possible information about the people in the U.S.A., who were responsible for the invasion. They will be brought to an international court along with Hussein.

Just some ideas, I'm not an expert and I don't have enough insight into the history of Iraq, but that would be a start for me,

Hello from Germany,
Dirk

[brokensymmetry]

6. Umm...I don't know about in Germany...

but in the US, writing hot checks is a crime! :-)

Seriously, that's not about to happen. The U.S. economy is on the brink now - such a strategy would lead to implosion, with all that implies for the world economy.

[Dirk39]

9. We're even more on the brink, and we did support the

embargo, too.

If you don't want to support more wars, more killing, more dead soldiers, among them americans too (if the "outsourcing" of killing doesn't succedd - it's allready prepared.)

Better implode now, it will happen anyway.

The general fear of a an economic decline is something, I don't really understand, anyway. Apart from being idiots, we produce more wealth with less effort than ever before in the history of mankind. We have all the tools, we have all the intelligence. The end of Haliburton and Bush and the Deutsche Bank wouldn't be the end of mankind, rather the beginning.

To announce a simple truth: people aren't hungry, 'cause we don't share our food with them. The apocalyptic nightmares of our leaders don't have to become our nightmares...
Dirk

[Dirk39]

8. I have to add something...

there's one "trick" - but it's not an evil one - to overcome fundamentalism. Don't shoot me, but Karl Marx knew it: he once said, at the very moment, the royalists accepted to become a party, which means being one party among others, democrazy did win.
Give Iraq public media, not private ownned commercial media, PUBLIC media.
All the interest groups, all the different ethnic groups in Iraq are allowed to contribute, it will be their programm, their media. But they have to accept, after listening to the Shiites, to listen to all the other groups, their culture, their music, whatever...
Some people will be annoyed, but in the end, it works...
Dirk

[K-W]

7. Internationalization is all there is

There is no solution. All we can do is let the rest of the world get thier say in what is going to happen. There is no way that Iraq is going to stabilized anytime soon. The only way to do it is to give it alot of time.

[Dirk39]

10. One more issue to think about:

What if the Bush-Administration already had a plan for post-invasion Iraq, but didn't dare to announce it prior to the invasion?
Bush might be a stupid puppet, but the people behind him - although not perfect - might pretty well know, what they are doing.
The intelligence in the U.S.A. - first to mention the CIA - have some insight knowledge about all the groups in Iraq, their positions, their fights etc. ppp.

This article is pretty interesting, I think:
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/COL312A.html

If they would have announced this plan, before the invasions, the intentions of the war would have been transparent for everyone. It's much more efficient, to announce your intention would be to liberate the people and to install a democrazy...
Then wait a few month, let hundreds of U.S. soldiers die, let thousands of Iraqis die.

Many people will share your perspective, that the different groups within Iraq can't be pacified. Now offer, as a solution, that the Iraq has to be divided. And use the month, while the american soldiers and Iraqis are dying, to sell the country out.

Dirk

[brokensymmetry]

12. Good point.

I think that's a real possibility.

[leesa]

11. Get the US out now along with all the corporate whores

Let the UN take over and help them re-stabilize. The US's ONLY role should be to pay reparations for the damage we caused in an unprovoked invasion.