Here's the deal

[patcox2]

The majority of committed dems support Dean.

But,

Turnout in both primaries was exceptionally high, independants came out in large numbers. Thats the reason Dean didn't win, he didn't lose support, its that the polls assumed there wouldn't be so many voters, so many independants, who come out and vote (typically only the committed dems vote in primaries).

If this were a typical dem primary, dean would have won, because he appeals to committed, motivatedt dems, and they are usually the only ones who vote.

But bad news for Dean way more people came out than usual, many many independants.

And the first and most important issue for almost 80% of these voters was electability.

Think about that, don't think in turns of "electability," thats just the way the poll was written, this means these people have as their number one issue beating Bush, they don't care who does it.


Bad news for Dean, but even worse news for Bush.

What does it mean? That Polls are underestimating both the number of anti-Bush voters, and their motivation to actually show up and vote.

This is the kind of under-estimation that led to the "Dewey beats Truman" projections.

I think these primary results indicate there will be a tremendous anti-bush turnout in the general election (they will support whoever the dem nominee is). This might not be indicated by the polls, which have difficulty measuring just who will turn out and vote. The turnouts in these primaries should be heartening if you are a democrat, regardless of who you support.

[lancdem]

1. I think Kerry did win among Dems in N.H.

but I agree with your assertion that there's a lot of anti-Bush sentiment out there that inside-the-beltway people are oblivious to.

[OHdem10]

2. Very good post

While I am ot a Dean supporter i think we owe Dean and the Deaniacs.
i am covinced it was their energy and sizzzle and Dr Dean courage in early on speaking the truth to Power which animated h elctions and thus promoted the turnout -- no matter for whom they voted.

Schuster at MSNBC had an interesting story tonight. In NH even Republians voted--some to express their displeasdre with direction in which Bush is taking the country. This contibuted to running low on Ballots at Londonderry.

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