CGES Sees `Genuine Shortage' Of Oil,OPEC Won't Cut In '04

[Solon]

Sorry guys, I did not see this in Latest Breaking Monday, and I just discovered it today so I decided to post it here. My apologies.

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- High oil prices stem from an actual shortage of crude, not speculators trying to run up prices, the Center for Global Energy Studies said Monday.

"Oil prices reflect a genuine shortage of oil in the market," the London-based energy consultants said in their monthly report.

(snip)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/dowjones/20040126/bs_dowjones/200401261328001093

[hatrack]

1. Gosh, CNN and MSNBC didn't lead with this!

I wonder why . . .

[Solon]

3. I find it amusing what OPEC's response was...

OPEC (news - web sites) counters that high prices are the result of speculators holding long positions, in the crude futures markets ahead of an expected OPEC cut in February.

Considering the overestimation that they have a habit of making since the '80s I would find it as no surprise that their excuse is nothing more than a smokescreen.

[Merrick]

20. Dont worry

The interplanetary oil pipeline between Mars and Earth will solve all these problems by 2040.
http://www.NewsMutiny.com

[newyawker99]

21. Hi Merrick!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[brainshrub]

2. Today marks day #1 of Peak Oil.

Remember this day like you remember 9/11: It's the first day that a mainstream source reported that we are about to have an oil shortage.

Peak Oil is going to be a bitch. I hope y'all packed your bags, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

[Solon]

4. Year 2000 was probably peak...

This is Day 1 of our realization that it hit 3 years ago.

[brainshrub]

5. Yes. (nt)

[Solon]

6. Link that alarms me...

How peak oil could affect argriculture
http://www.oilcrash.com/eating.htm

[brokensymmetry]

26. Just read the link.

Scary!

[Solon]

7. Kick n/t

[CaptainClark23]

8. Nice catch

Perhaps its time to start a "Peak Oil Watch" regular thread.

[Solon]

11. I find this to be the most important issue...

possibly of the century. Think of Iraq and the PNAC plan using this as the filter. Their world domination scheme is not so much for profitability as survivalibility of the American way of life and American Dominance. We will probably be the Hardest hit industrialized nation on the planet when oil prices skyrocket. Its like heroin for the nation, and I shudder to think about what the withdrawal will be like.

[CaptainClark23]

12. I agree

IN fact I think its the ONLY issue.

It explains almost all of the geopolitical moves made by eastern and western powers over the past few years. It puts all these events into a context that is much more probable than simple greed or lust for power.

Recall Cheney's little energy powwow which he is loathe to reveal any information about. Those are the guys who know whats in the ground, and what its gonna take to get it out. Cheney cannot reveal the nature of those meetings because to do so would spill the beans on peak oil, and then the whole paradigm shifts, and control is not guaranteed.

On a more psychological level, peak oil and "insider awareness" of the issue explains how many otherwise well-intentioned people might become complicit in questionable deeds and adventures. If clued-in to peak oil by powers on high from the view of having to literally defend the very future of America as we know it could be the self-justification many would need to engage and support radical activities (i.e. pre-emptive invasion and occupation).

Might even explain the complicity of the media and the legislative branches of government. The motive of simple greed does not explain what we are seeing happen around us.

Fellow DU'er GoreN4 is putting together a book on the subject of peak oil, and its role in Iraq invasion.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=5076

I recommend reading his work and passing it around.

[BeFree]

14. Yep, it drives foreign policy

Without cheap oil, our economy is endangered.

The time to adapt is now. If we wait much longer the changes will be much more harmful to the US.

The * administration should be held responsible as it has the knowledge, but is taking the wrong course in finding solutions.

To anyone who is hesitant about believing we are at Peak Oil, please be aware of the geologic fact is that oil is not renewing itself. Therefore, it will become more and more scarce, therefore driving the price higher and higher. There will come a time when cheap oil is history. We contend that we are at that time in history. IF... this adnministration would tell the truth, it would be just that, but we know they lie. So don't expect our government to get ahead of this issue except by stealing all the oil we can.

[Solon]

16. That's part of the reason I want to spead it far and wide.

Right now its a zero sum game, with no alternatives to relieve us of the pressure. We need to start NOW, not tomorrow or the year after. There is no way we could prevent disruption in our lives, but we can soften the blow, if we actually invest in all the varieties of alternative energy. At the rate we are going, we are facing a total crash, it won't be a slow descent, rather a rapid increase in price, and then severe shortages, starvation, halt to unnecessary traffic, etc. Remember demand is going up nearly 1.5 million barrels a day, with depleting supply, that's a formula for disaster.

[Bandit]

9. Is this just more ammo for opening the Artic Wildlife Refuge?

I think this is just what they need to push once again to open ANWR. I hate what this issue has done to Labor. We have lost the Teamsters to the Dark side because of ANWR and the LIES of the VRWC. I dislike Hoffa almost as much as I do Bush*

[Solon]

10. I doubt it.

First off, if you look at it realistically, ANWR will provide about 3 months to a year worth of oil supply to the world, wow that's nice. Second is the difficulty in getting to it, and the building of the infrastructure required reduces profitability. As far as labor, how much would the teamsters like? Because in as little as 2-5 years we will need a whole new revamping of our infrastructure in the US just to even ATTEMPT to maintain our lifestyle.

[Beaker]

22. It will take 10 years to get oil from ANWR-

too little, too late.

[Solon]

13. One more kick

What nobody interested in this?

[hatrack]

18. Signs of editorial life from north of the border

EDIT

"The basic facts are these: The entire world now both produces and consumes some 75 million barrels of oil a day. By 2015, or a decade away, demand is expected to increase by more than two-thirds, or by another 60 million barrels a day. This extra demand simply cannot be met. We would have to find and develop the equivalent of 10 new North Sea oilfields in just a decade. Even if Iraq's oilfields are fully developed, with almost unlimited new investment and new technology, it could only produce an extra 6 million barrels, or a mere one-tenth of the amount needed.

Certainly, new supplies are being found in places such as Siberia, the Central Asian Republics and west Africa. But these are not net additions to the total output. At the same time, production from all existing super-giant and giant fields is contracting by 4 to 5 per cent a year. Additional supplies could be generated from tar sands and oil shale in Western Canada and in Venezuela's Orinoco belt. But more than half as much energy is used extracting this oil as the energy value of the oil produced. Other potential supplies, such as polar oil and liquid natural gas, are horrendously expensive.

The real problem isn't supply, though. It's demand. Last year, one element of the demand equation clicked into place. In 2003, China overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest consumer of oil. The International Energy Agency describes China as "the major driver of global demand growth."

EDIT

In fact, a lot could be done. Tax loopholes could be closed, like the one that makes SUVs artificially attractive. Regulations could mandate higher fuel-efficiency standards. Tax incentives could motivate householders to improve their heating efficiency. Other remedies could range from minimizing urban sprawl to developing alternatives to hydrocarbons, such as hydrogen cells. Energy economist Philip Verleger reckons that the U.S.'s oil imports, of some 11 million barrels a day, could be cut by half. Bush, though, has done nothing about the problem other than to mutter that it does exist, and no Democratic presidential candidate has dared to mention the subject. The reason is obvious: the last politician to talk seriously about conservation, Jimmy Carter in 1977, was trounced in the next presidential election."

EDIT

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0128-10.htm

[Solon]

19. I find it surprising that it has not garnered more attention...

Worldwide, in mainstream publications. We are talking about literally the end of our civilization as we know it. Even if we could soften the blow, within most of our lifetimes, the disruption would be so severe that many will not survive. It saddens me that so many people would stick their heads in the sand and say everything is fine. Even more are ignorant of the problem and say that it is alarmist, but it will be an extremely bumpy ride.

[amandabeech]

28. Peak Oil Is Too Scary

for most people. I was just in shock when I realized what was going on a couple of years ago. And for me, this is THE issue. But perhaps there is hope. Dennis Kucinich mentioned the PNAC tonight in the debate (Thurs-SC). Maybe someone will mention Peak Oil before the primaries are over. I can dream, can't I?

Oh, yes, Bump!!

Amanda

[brokensymmetry]

25. Very interested.

I think a lot of people - leader types, as well as we more ordinary folks - don't want to think about it.

Keep in mind that peak oil will be really nasty - as you and others point out - and people don't like to think about such things.

Consider food alone. We import lots of food, and export it as well. We use a great deal of fertilizer. With expensive oil, food becomes more expensive - and the variety of fresh foods we presently enjoy becomes completely out of reach for most. As millions endure famine, and we can barely feed our own population we...well, what? There aren't any easy solutions, are there?

No, I think the problem is that nobody really wants to deal with it...

[Minstrel Boy]

15. I wonder, when it will hit home?

It astounds me it hasn't already. There was more awareness 30 years ago than there is today that one day, in the not too distant future, the petroleum would run out.

But the denial is great. It's just too scary.

"Bush-Cheney Energy Strategy: Procuring the Rest of the World’s Oil" by Michael Klare: http://www.fpif.org/papers/03petropol/politics.html

[Solon]

17. It's not just oil...

Natural Gas is peaking too, remember how the rolling blackouts disrupted California, or the Blackout of the Northeast? Well what if we had those during all "Peak times".

Excerpt: "The weather has created high demand for electricity and as a result some power generating plants ran out of natural gas Thursday and increased the burden on other plants, according to ISO New England."--Friday, January 16, 2004 Posted: 1:23 AM EST Link: http://www.cnn.com/2004/WEATHER/01/15/cold.snap/index.html

[Beaker]

23. I'm 43, and when I read these kinds of stories-

it reminds me how glad I am that I chose not to have kids...the future is going to be interesting, to say the least.

[dflprincess]

24. So could OPEC be holding back their oil

in order to get Bush* out of the White House? Surely they must know what an oil shortage will do to our economy and how Americans will react to $4.00/gallon gas?

[Solon]

27. Not likely...

Understand that OPEC has been known to overestimate their own reserves, possibly up to 80% since the 1980's. Back then they could get away with it, nowadays it is getting harder, we are practically using it as its leaving the ground. They would want the world to think that they have plenty of oil, to keep prices down, so no alternatives would compete with the price. They are finding it harder to control the price. Shell oil recently corrected their own calculations and they overestimated their reserves by 20%.
http://money.tbo.com/money/MGAHFXN59PD.html

[loudnclear]

29. BINGO!!! You are on it!!!

The faulty intelligence was made and packages by this administration's handlers. An office and operation accountable to no one but Cheney along with his co-harts, Rummy, Wolfie, and Perlie!

It's time the American people found out about its existence. It's time Condi found out about it too!