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I have explained the Negative Coattails Theory before, but because some of you are new here since the last time, here we go again...
A president with "coattails" is so popular, he's able to pull members of his party into congress with him--like they're riding on his coattails. (This term was invented back when coats had tails, naturally.)
Now let's talk Bush the Younger. King Sadim (read it backwards), who has the unusual gift of being able to turn everything he touches to dogshit, is becoming less popular by the day as revelations that he lied us into war, outed a CIA NOC agent as revenge, turned America into the pariah of the world and bankrupted the nation so thoroughly it's going to take Democratic presidents a hundred years to fix it, become mainstream knowledge. Once he hits his proper level of support--the twelve percent of the nation that is composed of one-issue abortion foes, hardcore racists, people who go to church seven days a week, and anti-tax crusaders, plus the filthy rich who are one percent of the electorate--his presence on the ticket will start to weigh against Republicans running for congressional seats. A truly unpopular president is able to pull members of his party back into private life--negative coattails.
There are a few safe seats--Tom DeLay's comes to mind for some strange reason--but many people will vote for Democrats just because they know what Bush plus a Republican Congress is capable of. If this happens enough, the party switch will be even more severe than it was in 1994. And we won't need a Contract on America, either--we have Bush, and Bush is the best thing that ever happened to the Democratic Party, if the Democrats have the moral courage to stand up and tell the people, repeatedly and loudly, how bad Bush fucked everything up.
Should the pre-election polls start to indicate a shift from Republican to Democratic that's larger than BBV can believably fix (no one's gonna believe that if Rick Santorum's polling twenty percent the day before the election, then wins 65-35, that the election wasn't rigged), and if two or three weeks of ads with the Democrat's face in front of a French flag set to the tune of La Marseilles don't work, they will approach the village idiot and tell him "look, we're going to give you three choices. The first is the least politically suicidal: You can do a Nixon--Cheney resigns, you elevate someone innocuous to the VP's seat then resign yourself, and then the new guy pardons you both. The second is going to be far worse for the nation: We can impeach you and Cheney, Cheney first, for the lies that started the Iraq war. There's no way you'd survive the trial in the Senate, and you know that. After you've been removed from office, a long trial will start on thousands of criminal charges. You'll go down in history as the first president to be executed for crimes committed while in office; there is no other punishment severe enough for killing a thousand American soldiers over a lie, or for allowing 3000 Americans to be killed so your friends at PNAC could have their new Pearl Harbor. More to the point, you'll be executed by a firing squad consisting of one infantryman from each division that participated in the Iraq War, plus a special forces weapons sergeant who served in Afghanistan and a New York police officer, on national television. Your third choice will be even worse for you: We'll hand you, Cheney and the whole cabinet over to the CIA. They haven't done any 'wet work' in decades, but I'm certain they could find it within themselves to accommodate you. And after the Plame case and you blowing off their analyses of Saddam's capabilities, I don't think they'd have too much trouble finding someone with a gun in her glovebox. Now, go upstairs and sleep on it, and tell us your answer in the morning. There is no fourth choice. There is no way to slide out of this. Your father will not help you on this one. Your money will not help you. Your choices are to go home and clear brush for the rest of your life, or to die. Pleasant dreams."
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