Prediction: Dem 60 million (54%); Bush 52 million (46%)

[TruthIsAll]

1. Record-high turnout in the New Hampshire Democratic primary -- 219,787 vs. the previous record of 170,000 in 1992. This is an increase of almost 30%.

2. 15% of NH Repubs voted against Bush. Many Repubs are switching all over the country, maybe 10% or more.

3. Kerry ALREADY leads Bush in the polls, 49-46.

4. Newsweek: 47% definitely will not vote for Bush. Only 37% will.

5. Muslims will vote for the Dem this time.

6. A large number of military and veterans who voted for Bush in 2000 will not do again.

7. Millions unemployed will vote for the Dem.

8. Blacks will vote in record numbers to repay Bush for disenfranchising in Florida.

9. Small business owners who were "Walmartized" will desert Bush.

10. The Democratic Party wll be energized and united.

In 2000:
Gore 51 million votes
Bush 50.5
Nader 2.7

Based on the above, this is what could happen in 2004:

Dem: 60 million (54%)
Bush: 52 million (46%)

[rockymountaindem]

1. Do you have a link to that newsweek poll?

[TruthIsAll]

4. Polling report link

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Jan. 29-30, 2004. N=1,022 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"Suppose the next general election for president were being held TODAY and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, and , the Democrat -- who would you vote for?" If "Other" or "Undecided": "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush, the Republican, or , the Democrat?" Names rotated

Bush Kerry Other Undecided
% % %
1/29-30/04 46 48 6
1/22-23/04 46 49 5
1/08-09/04 52 41 7
12/11-12/03 51 41 8
11/6-07/03 49 45 6
10/23-24/03 50 42 8
10/9-10/03 48 42 10
9/25-26/03 50 42 8
9/18-19/03 48 43 9
......7/03 50 42 8

[TruthIsAll]

8. This is the link you want

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040124/nysa010a_1.html

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

2. Lots of time between now and NOV

I am "Fearfully Optimistic"

Optimistic because of all the trends you note.

Fearful because the possible effects of the 200M advert blitz on a gullible TV/Pablum fed public, and of course because of possible fraud.

All said I still think we'll win.

[TacticalPeek]

3. () - Stamp of Approval.

Barring the dam breaks and multiple scandals unfold in media feeding frenzy, in which case a fatter margin.

An obese margin.


:evilgrin:

[Minstrel Boy]

5. 46%: Bush pulls off another squeaker!

That guy has the darnedest luck!

[Dems Will Win]

6. I agree. Most Millennials will get over Dean maybe not being the nom,

and with the DRAFT soon to loom over their heads, they will vote. That gives the Democrat several million new votes that could be won. Dean would have won more of them, but Kerry showing he can win them too.

[loudsue]

7. Mayberry makes a good point TIA.....

That is going to be one "shock & awe" of a $200 million campaign blitz Rove has planned for bush.

Then, you have to add in the factor of their well-known "dirty tricks", the black box voting machines, Gropenator installed in California, Jeb and other crooked maniac repuke governors, the Diebold (O'Dell) promise to deliver Ohio, the extreme right wing press, and if all else fails....the Supremes, or other right wing court appointees of lesser stature.

We're going to need more than 60 million votes to outshine the fix that is already set-up.

O8) But we can WISH bush would burn! Maybe a big scandal? O8)

[calimary]

9. I love that - "shock and awe." I'll give 'em some "shock and awe."

Hopefully all of America will give 'em some "shock and awe" in November. But I, too, am nervous. It's a LOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNGGGGG time til November. A lot can happen. Especially considering this manipulative school of barracuda. I wouldn't put it past 'em. In fact, it would not surprise me if they started sending anthrax letters around to likely Democratic voters. These people are beyond Machiavellian. I wouldn't put ANYTHING past 'em. If they get desperate, watch out for a) a terrorist strike
b) another war
c) they pull Osama out of a hat.

These people invented the concept of "October Surprise." I'd love to start getting complacent, but I won't. And if Kerry's gonna be the nominee (so said this Dean person), they haven't even begun to smear him yet.

[Arugula Latte]

21. We need to get everyone to donate to the nominee

I mean EVERYONE. Dean showed you can raise millions quickly in $50 increments.

[stevedeshazer]

10. Doesn't matter

Unless you break it down into electoral college votes.

What states do Dems win that they didn't in 2000? And what states do they lose that they won last time?

That's what counts.

[many a good man]

11. Its a blowout in the electoral college

Dems pick up:
Arizona +10
Florida +27
Missouri +11
New Hampshire +4
Ohio +20

[loudsue]

12. I hope you're right....

O8)For the sake of people all over the world, I hope you're right. O8)

:kick:

[stevedeshazer]

13. What makes you think we're going to pick these up?

With all due respect, I hope you are right.

It could just as easily be:

New Mexico -5
Oregon -7
Iowa -7
Pennsylvania -21
Wisconsin -10

Why do you think the Dems will pick up the states you have named while keeping the ones I mentioned, all of which were decided by <2% of the vote?

[many a good man]

15. See Post #14

n/t

[TruthIsAll]

17. If the Dem wins Ohio, its all over. All other states will fall in line.

Likewise:
If we win FL, its all over.
If we win MO, it's all over (cause all the other states which Gore won, the Dem will win again, along with a few that he lost)

[TruthIsAll]

16. Wrong. You can't get 54% and lose the EC. Impossible.

In fact, there is no need to worry about the Electoral College if the Dem gets 52% or more.

[William Seger]

14. Prediction:

[unblock]

18. hmm. $200MM. osama. october surprise. declaration of victory. wartime

shrub has many aces-in-the-hole, and $200MM to promote them heavily.

well-orchestrated military victories, celebrations, and/or memorials.

fear-inspiring terror stories. patriotism. nationalism.

greed. tax cuts. fear of tax hikes. fear plus optimism.

dirty tricks. scary democrats. trust the leader you know. shrub is more like you. christian. moral.

$200MM promoting whatever image is convenient.

$200MM promoting damaging lies about the democrats. remember, they turned al "boy scout" gore into a pathological liar. that's right, he's such a straight shooter that they thought that that was his biggest liability, that he was TOO much of a stright arrow!

having said that, bush sr. proved that they don't do re-elections well.

but they certainly are better funded this time. why i don't know. even republicans are losing money in this market!

[TruthIsAll]

20. All I hear about is $200 million. The people see right through it.

He gets no further bounce, even if Robertson declares him to be the Second Coming of Christ.

Sorry. He is going down. He has fooled them once (9/11). To 91% approval. Twice (WMD/Iraq). To 75%. Three times (Saddam capture). To 60%.

He is below 50%. At best he will stay there. At worst, down to 40%.

[MurikanDemocrat]

19. I hope you're right

Turnout in primaries is a good sign.

Bush popularity falling is a good sign.

I'd settle for a 51%/49%, as long as Bush hits the road!

[Beetwasher]

22. One Things For Sure, IMO

The Dems are going to NEED a landslide. If they win but it's close, they will "lose".