Gun-Barrel Democracy Has Failed Time and Again

[hedgetrimmer]

Study suggests U.S. may make Iraq an ally but produce little freedom there.
By George W. Downs and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
George W. Downs is dean of social science and professor of politics at New York University. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is Silver Professor of Politics at New York University and senior fellow at the Hoov
February 4, 2004

When it involves itself in the affairs of others, the United States likes to say that it is doing so in defense of freedom and democracy. That's what we said in Iraq, among other things, when we toppled Saddam Hussein. That was part (though not all) of our argument for going after the Taliban in Afghanistan. But it's also what we said in Vietnam in the 1960s, in Grenada in 1983, in Panama in 1989 and in numerous other interventions during the 20th century.

In fact, presidents rarely fail to trot out "democracy" as a justification for their actions abroad. That's because it is popular with Americans, who like to feel they are on the side of the angels. But if it's democracy we're after, we are failing miserably.

Between World War II and the present, the United States intervened more than 35 times in developing countries around the world. But our research shows that in only one case — Colombia after the American decision in 1989 to engage in the war on drugs — did a full-fledged, stable democracy with limits on executive power, clear rules for the transition of power, universal adult suffrage and competitive elections emerge within 10 years. That's a success rate of less than 3%.

After other interventions — such as Guatemala (1954), Nicaragua (1978 and 1982) and Thailand (1966) — various trappings of democracy, such as noncompetitive elections and a limited franchise, were added in the decade that followed but the critical elements of a fully developed democracy simply never emerged.

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