Florida Vote: Can we Talk?

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

It seems not to get discussed too much on here, but since Florida was a virtual dead heat in 2000, isn't there an argument to be made that P.O.'ed Democratic voters (as well as embarassed ones who didn't turn out who could have made a difference) could swing the state our way this time? As well as the normal collection of disgruntled Republican voters across the country who are sitting it out or voting our way?

Since many of us on this board, like me, feel that there should be a significant majority sentiment against the administration come November and this should drive a Democratic victory (i.e. winning us some states that went Republican last time), shouldn't Florida be a key consideration? I mean we consider states like Ohio to be critical swing states that went a few percentage points Repub last time, isn't there an argument that we should concentrate at least as hard in Florida?

I hear arguments like forget about FLA, Jeb is still there etc. Well, what of it? Has FLA become significantly more Repub in 3-4 years? Is Jeb a popular governor? What is the sentiment? Can any Floridians, especially those involved in politics, comment?

[stepnw1f]

1. Yes I agree...from MA

I don't know why they are skipping FL. I would have thought it was a pinnacle state and it would have helped mend the distrust for voters downthere. I know, because I lived in Orange County for 3 years.

[lastknowngood]

2. Florida is a lock for the shrub his brother has had

4 years to expanding his power base and replace anyone in the system with an ounce of integrity. The Dem couldn't win there if the shrub was caught having sex with OBL while taking a bribe from North Korea.
California is also lost they put Arnold in place to appoint a Katherine Harris clone to purge the Dem roles just before the election.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

5. If you believe that FLA and CA are both Repub Locks

Then you have given up the election already or assume it is lost to corruption/BBV. If that is true why bother.

I don't share this belief by the way. I live in TX which went 59%/38% R/D in 2000 and I feel completely motivated to work for the Democrats even though I pretty well expect something similar this time... If there was a combination of 5% shift our way with a few % complacent nonturnout etc. I couldn't live with myself if I didn't try and help the cause.

Any other thoughts? Particularly from Floridians, esp. those in politics...

[lcordero]

10. Florida is already lost

Jebby "won" by half a million votes in 2002 I think.
BBV + forged absentee ballots = Repuke lock

[mikehiggins]

8. Florida will go Democrat and so will California. Jeb is a joke and

Arnold is in office too short a period of time to have any real effect on the bureaucracy that conducts the polling and the voting.

And I'm not certain he'll be jumping for joy at the prospect of campaigning for Bush either.

We'll see, but don't write Florida off. There's a whole bunch of folks here who still resent what happened. Nobody likes to be make a fool of, and that's what happened to this entire state.

[Eric J in MN]

13. Need to make sure there are enough Provisional Ballots to fight purges.

Under the Help America Vote Act, precincts are required to give a provisional ballot to any voter who was purged.

Will there be enough provisional ballots?

Or will voters be told, "you were purged and we're out of provisional ballots, so too bad?"

Election-watchers need to make sure the precincts will have enough provisional ballots before Election Day.

[brainwashed_youth]

3. i can answer those ?'s

Being a Floridian, I believe I can answet that. Jeb is somewhat popular. The repubs absolutely adore him, the dems hate him. The Florida primary is march 9th, so I'm sure the Dems will campaign heavily here before then. I'm just hoping that at least one of them comes to the Tampa Bay area so I can go and hear them

[Norbert]

7. Question: If Bob Graham is on the ticket...

what is the probability of Florida swinging the Democrats way? That is predicated on Graham wanting or is able to stay in the political arena.

[Democrats unite]

4. Some people here have no idea what they are talking about!

I live in Florida, I lived through the 2000 fiasco, I BLAME GORE! 2000 is not going to happen again in Florida. We are ready, we are waiting & Damit, our votes are going to count this time!

[BOHICA06]

6. Please ....

if we couldn't even eject Jeb - what makes you think Florida is going to a non-incumbant. McBride didn't even come close. Sorry, but look to the states that have the major unemployment problems for victories. The non-manufacturing economy here just isn't hurting enough.

[mikehiggins]

9. Kerry or Clark could carry this state in a walk. Ditto Edwards.

It doesn't seem likely Dean will get the nomination but stranger things have happened this year. He has a phenomenal operation on the ground down here and lots of institutional support.

I know Maddox said it looks like Kerry is going to be the nominee, but that doesn't really reflect the pov of most Floridian Dems, at least not those I meet at the DEC meetings.

And guys? Unless Bush catches OBL in October, I really do believe he is toast, Allah be praised.

[AndyTiedye]

11. The Majority Will Try To Vote Democratic in Florida, BUT

There is nothing we can do to prevent them from stealing it again.

Arnie was installed to do the same thing in California.
We MUST recall him before November, or it's all over.

We can win without any Southern states, just barely.

Without California, it is completely hopeless.

[Eric J in MN]

12. 39,000 Florida voters who were purged are waiting for their rights

http://www.sptimes.com/2003/12/21/State/No_telling_if_voter_r.shtml

[AndyTiedye]

14. ACCENTURE?!?!?!?!!!! (A.K.A. Andersen Consulting!?!?!)

> The state spent $1.6-million to hire another private contractor,
> Accenture, to improve the state voter database that will be used next > year.

Sure, they'll "improve" the database. Yeah right!
That just means they'll steal millions of votes
instead of the tens of thousands they stole in 2000.

[bandy]

18. Ghosts of K. Harris

I will not give up hope but Palm Beach County's Elect. Supervisor is the same one as 2000 and could care less what the public thinks. She does what Jeb tells her to do. She, Theresa LaPore, and Wexler were in court yesterday arguing paper trail. She wants the case moved to Tallahassee where it will sit for 2-3 yrs. 2000 changed me from Repub to Dem and as soon as a candidate is approved I'll be right there to volunteer.

[donsu]

15. Fl. voting machines can still be rigged

nt

[ochazuke]

16. Start from scratch

I think any analysis of the 2004 election that assumes we start with the votes we got in 2000 is bogus. People are voting up or down on the incumbant this time. It's a totally different kind of choice.

To take Florida, you have to think about regional identification with the candidate, the senior vote, having a Floridian VP candidate. About the only thing 2000 has relevant here might be lingering fear and resentment against the system on the part of those voters who were turned away from the polls in 2000. Will those people stay home this time rather than be humiliated again? Or, will they make sure that they are on the voter rolls and vote? (I hope we have an organization down there to counter the Kath. Harris "off the blacks" operation!)

[FlaGranny]

17. I was certain in 2002

that Jeb would be voted out because of the reasons you have given. I was sorely disappointed.

[Catt04]

19. South Florida

where I live, will be a major test for the Democrats. As stated in an earlier post, regional identification is important and South Florida has so many snowbirds that it is difficult to say what they connect too.

A major issue is social security but I get the feeling that the wealthier residents aren't as concerned about the changes. I also think that in this ares of FL, terrorism is an issue. I don't know why
except that people take to the "tough talk" from Bush.

It would be denial to say that the Jewish, Cuban, Haitian and Dominican Republic vote are relevant also. Each have different issues about immigration and Bush's declaration of amnesty for illegal immigrants can be important.

I have also notice that it is difficult in Palm Beach County, to get many involved or to get people excited. Quite a change from 2000 where people actually went to their street corners with a sign to protest the election and Bush. Maybe they just felt so disheartened by what happened, they have given up.

Jeb is popular in Florida, as stated. That also has to do with the actual power he has as the state Constitution is just like Texas where the governor does not have to take responsibility for anything as they have such little power anyway. Just like George when he was governor of Texas and now president.

I think Florida is a fragile toss up. Who knows? It is just an opinion.

[camero]

20. Florida is still mostly Dem

But the elections are still not honest. If there is any given, it's that the repubs will cheat any way they can. Including tampering with votes.

[Vickers]

21. I live in Palm Beach County

I have listened to 4 years of jokes. They were all very funny!

I voted in the 2000 presidential election (did it take?), the 2002 election, and I'll vote this time. I know that a lot of friends who sat out the 2000 election are going to vote this time. I don't think any are going for Bush.

As far as Jeb winning in 2002...he was running against McBride, an even LESS inspiring person than Jeb. Hard to picture, but it's true.

I honestly think that the average Floridian THIS TIME AROUND is much more politically aware. I think we all are, actually.

That won't help Bush.

[newyawker99]

22. Hi Vickers!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[onethatcares]

23. there is a base here that knows they got screwed royally in 2000

they ain't gonna let it happen again. It won't matter if diebold is the ones or any other bbv machine. The black vote here is critical, and they more than any other niche won't let 2000 go, they sure as hell aren't gonna let dumbya have another shot at another term unless they're all put on the dis enfranchised list. There hasn't been a thing this admin has done to help anyone here, watch how scary it gets.