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What do you lot think?
This is an interesting take…what do I think?
there has been much debate in the press over whether the PM will postpone the expected May 10th Federal Election to June or the fall Maybe among Liberals, but the debate has been squarely placed Paul ‘OJ’ Martin—‘I didn’t do it, but I will help find the guys that did’. Clearly Martin is losing the real debate and if anyone has been watching closely—he hasn’t actually done anything except feed the news cycle. “Politics is not a game played by an elite few”… a Paul Martin bon bon tossed out on CBC CrossCountry Check-Up on Sunday. He has also managed to ‘backpage’ the CSL discrepency ($335,000 vs. 161 million, then 183 million?) He didn’t know anything about that either.
The Conservative Leadership Race. This isn’t a factor because there really isn’t a race—Harper will win. Unfortunately this is not good for the NDP and great for the Conservatives. Harper is scoring soundbites in QP. It will help his Leadership campaign and do nothing for Tony Lament or Frank/Belinda Stronach. But this being Canada, national poll numbers are irrelevent to seat distribution. If the Liberals get ‘bounce’, they will go in May. The Conservatives, whoever wins, won’t have any money.
Ed Broadbent would win that by-election, thus boosting NDP fortunes right before an election and introducing a formidable opponent into the house. Ed will probably win, but so what—he ain’t the Leader. This is rather a curious situation if you think about it. Broadbent might have a shot at a seat before Jack Layton does…interesting twist. Will this matter if the Liberals wait until the Fall? No…because Parliament doesn’t sit in the summer. So Harper and Layton will be stuck dropping pamphlets at summer cottages, tossing burgers at BBQs and testing stump speeches to their party faithful.
The Liberals, of course, will do doing what Liberals do best with a great angle; Prominent Government Liberals will visit municipal ridings handing out the 2 billion earmarked by Martin for ‘municipal improvement’.
The Liberals will be out ‘saving our cities’, while the other guys will be out criticizing it. Good fit for the Conservatives as they hate government spending and out West they are '‘harper-ing’ on the gas tax in rural and urban ridings. Bad fit for the NDP as a lot of their Machine are in municipalities as are their supporters. What will Ed do…drag out the old ‘from Bay Street to Main Street’ schtick.
The rise of the NDP
The sad part is that they didn’t get much according to the Ipso-Reid poll. This is mostly because they don’t have a leader and the Media is NOT going to waste a whole lot of time with Jack Layton’s ‘mental striptease’ on the subject of government corruption. In fact, according to the numbers, the NDP fell in BC. This is inspite of a NEW provincial leader (no blowback for the Feds on whoever it is) and as such no money either. Also in BC, there is still the unresolved ‘scandal’ of prominent Martinites in the Gordo Cabinet getting searched by the cops with rumours of Martinite vote buying and grow-ops. The NDP in the BC apparantly didn’t capitalize on either of these Liberal scandals either way. Libby is probably gone and Svend will have a huge fight if the Liberals drop a ‘star candidate’ into the riding The New Dems look like they will probably peak at 20%-22%.
Back Me or Sack Me. Martin may take the considerable risk of calling a snap election
Might be a risk…didn’t work for the last Anglo Liberal PM—John Turner. Conditions in 2004 are similar to what they were back in the early 80s—Liberal patronnage corruption and an ineffectual Liberal leader. Yikes!!! Only big difference is that the Conservatives are not running a son of Quebec…however Quebec voters might take a powder and sit out the election with the larger BQ—like the numbers they had when Mulroney left.
The Chretienite reaction to Groupaction. Clearly there is a conflict brewing in the Liberal Party between two mutually exclusive camps representing Paul Martin and Jean Chretien
“conflict brewing?”…um…well…yeah…they have been at war for awhile. I distinctly remember Paul ‘a junior Minister from Quebec’ Martin being turfed along with his minions for their attempts at a ‘caucus coup’ not to long ago.
If anything Martin can turn this ‘negative’ into a positive. He has decried patronnage! Of course he has to decry patronnage, being a guy who has done little except slash government spending over the last ten years, wandered about collecting backbenchers and raising money from the corporate elite for his Leadership campaign.
The Auditor General’s report also mention the Crowns—what better cover to remove Cretin-ites than under the populist battlecry of cleaning up corruption in the Crowns and then appoint Martin’s own crew of neo-cons slashers to squeeze them for cash. Maybe even in the case of CanadaPost and VIA—privatize them.
I think a few people have noticed that Paul Martin Jr. has been actually running against his own Party for a few months now. Save for the resignation of Jean Cretin, Martin’s Liberals haven’t actually changed—it’s the same party with the same people.
Remember there is still Shawina-Gate waiting in the wings…
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