So the economy isn't turning around?

[Composed Thinker]

What is the real deal? Was the reason for the nice GDP number simply military spending? The Times reported that it accounted for 70% of the number, so does that mean that the economy is still in the pits?

[wellst0nev0ter]

1. No, That Mean In Order For Bush*

To equal the type of economic growth Clinton had in his WORST days, he would have to wage a never-ending war.

[West Coast Democrat]

2. They used to call it a "Jobless Recovery"

But what they really should call it is a "Non-Recovery Recovery"

[Boom_cha]

5. now they call it

a "job-loss" recovery

[robbedvoter]

3. How can it? Bushco sucked the life out of it with the tax cuts

His rich friends are holding on to the loot, getting refunds even if they never paid taxes - Clinton's surplus is gone and we have the biggest deficit in history. Dollar is at historic low - no one abroad trusts us with investments anymore. Unemployment is skyrocketing, corporate corruption still eats at it (even if not headlined in the media anymore). And do we have someone competent in charge? W says jobs go away cuz we lack skills and recession was caused by Faux's war hyping. That ought to restore everyone's confidence! But they say so, it must be so:

[Boom_cha]

4. read this about 2Q GDP report

From John Herrmann, chief economist at Cantor Fitzgerald, comes this insight from a subscriber report (hence no link): "Some very creative accounting by the Administration pushed Q2 GDP growth  up to +2.4%. Following Q1's +1.4% GDP growth rate, GDP grew at a +2.4% rate in Q2 - we  were looking for a minor gain in Q2's real GDP growth rate to +1.4%; consensus forecast: +1.4%. Although the headline looks impressive, it really was not, as a 14% rise  in defense spending in March was actually booked in April, inflating Q2's Federal Government spending outlays to their largest Quarterly gain since  the Korean War. Big deal, that is just good old-fashioned Texas accounting hard at work. Federal government spending jumped over 25.0% for the quarter, and the  Federal deficit is well on its way to a new record size."

[Composed Thinker]

6. Interesting stuff

Is there any way that this will come up and Bush won't be given credit for a "recovery"?

[Boom_cha]

7. I don't know

the point may be too arcane for the general public to grasp. But not to worry, the "recovery" will peter out soon enough. I give it two more quarters. Then the economy rolls over again in time for the '04 presidential campaign.

[Composed Thinker]

8. That's kind of what I thought might happen

Why do you think it will happen, though? Couldn't the military spending help every other sector?

[robbedvoter]

9. Only if every sector is a subsidiary of Carlyle, Halliburton

[Composed Thinker]

10. You know, I was thinking about this today when I got out of work

If the economy is still poor during the campaign, that, along with schools being poor, could give the Democrats a huge platform. Dean/Clark or whatever ticket comes up could have a nice little slogan or two like "Prosperity for the People" for the economy and "Back to Basics" for education.

[Boom_cha]

11. Why do I think it will happen?

Because the economy is severely imbalanced after the longest uninterrupted economic expansion in US history. Specific imbalances include an overvalued dollar, a humongous current account deficit, a very low savings rate, record debt levels, etc. The recession of '01 did not correct these imbalances. And the economy will not recover in earnest until these imbalances are rectified. Moreover, in the sectors that normally pull the economy out of recession (e.g., housing, durable goods), there is no pent-up demand in the pipeline. On the contrary, consumers are completely tapped out. There is no way for a recovery to gain traction under such circumstances.

[TreasonousBastard]

12. And with real income going down...

the potential for the housing bubble to burst, no job creation, and other wierd little bumps, like all those furriners retiring and taking their SS and pension money back home with them...

Economies ultimately grow due to consumer demand-- driven by population growth, new goodies to buy, and/or wealthier consumers. None of this is on the horizon now.

We could be in very big trouble, and I don't see any way out of it.