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The first thing is that this is not 'a democracy', and has never quite been that. It has been a country whose essential social and economic order was/is colonial, with most of its people invested in calling this colonial order Good and ordained by the Divine for reasons that were never particularly good. And yet we are doing our share to dismantle it, as each generation has done. And the people defending it hold out for as long as they can each time, only to collapse and regroup around another institution of the colonial system and fight about it for the next three generations. This society has progressively struggled with and gotten rid of the privileges of the Church/theocracy (1650-1720), the privileges of the King/feudalism (1720-1790), slavery (1790-1865), and serfdom (1865-1945). Now it's white male privilege/cultural Eurocentrism (1945-?2020) and the privileges of corporations (their lack of social responsibilities) that are at stake, in historical perspective.
It's easy to get to apocalyptic notions when the reactionaries are desperately clinging to power. Democrats may feel a helplessness-inducing lack of power, but you're not taking a close look at the Other Side and seeing how they feel they're riding a tiger- when they fall off, they expect to get mauled and eaten, so they're acutely desperate in their way independent of anything we might or might not be doing.
The simple facts reflected in the last couple of elections is that the Democratic Party has pretty much shed its social conservatives and is growing the social moderates and liberals at a rate of 3% of the popular vote every four years. In 1998 its positions became the popular majority (and sensing this, the Right precipitated the Lewinsky affair showdown in the hope of staving it off), in 2000 an electoral plurality, and in 2004- should all trends hold- it should become the electoral majority.
But the transition point of power, where some notion never previously dominant goes over the political 50% mark, is the height of instability and greatest anxiety for the society as a whole. The building anxiety was what caused Gore to seem the wrong man at his moment, a man of 1986 or 1992 rather than 2000, whether or not he technically won Florida. Then it made Bush seem the wrong man in the summer of 2001, where the 50% was probably crossed and the Right seemed completely exposed. But just when that point of greatest fragility and anxiety seemed crossed, bin Laden walked on stage and provided an enormous blow and distraction from the anxiety, a release for all the conservatives and moderates and even liberals with reservations (and there are many) from that painful tension and into hysteria outright.
But despite the distractors- 9/11, Afghanistan, Iraq- the country has not stopped in its deeper trends. It has accelerated getting aging white people in with the conservatives (meaning there are fewer new ones to find for '60 or '08) but has not affected the younger people much, radicalizing or intimidating people but not really affecting their basic take on the society. The Right was hard hit, even surprised, by the Lawrence vs Texas verdict- they keep thinking the change is deeper than its appearances, that there's something that has magically stemmed the trends rather than an echo chamber effect.
It's true that very many people are unsure of what to believe and are grasping at pretty arbitrary (but somehow more certain-feeling) things to justify voting for one side or the other. But notice that whenever things get sorted out, Bush sinks in the polls. At present the number I watch is his 'reelect' percentage- the hardest and most serious assessment of where his side is. He peaked in March at 51% and is falling at a rate of a little more than -1.5%/month. He's now below his numbers during the Enron scandal. And Ed Rollins is correct about December or so being when he becomes unelectable- when his reelect number falls under the 38% mark, meaning that no swing voter sees reason to commit to him after about three years in office.
So let it go until December or so, then reassess the thing. Don't forget that Gore made up six or seven points in the last three weeks, not so much by doing anything in particular but by people realizing it foolish to give Bush the benefit of their doubts. Don't be surprised to see the same again in 2004.
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