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It's hard to tell whether events break favorably for Bush on their own, or whether Bush operatives manipulate events so that they happen just when he needs a lift in the polls.
If Bush can't improve his track record between now and November '04, he'll be in trouble. He needs some defining event that shows that he's not just being carried along like a leaf in a stream. The SOTU flap damaged his credibility - what will he use in the future?
The economy isn't likely to pick up significantly over the next 15 months. Maybe Iraq will be pounded into some kind of shape between now and the election, but that doesn't seem likely either. Perhaps there will be some spectacular military achievement, on the scale of the raid at Entebbe, but that sounds doubtful, too. If things stay as they are, Bush is really beatable.
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