Prediction: A Gephardt-Dean ticket

[jos]

Assuming Gephardt wins Iowa and Dean wins New Hampshire, I believe the nomination will come down to a Gephardt-Dean battle. Gephardt has a number of advantages in that battle. One, geography. The race may be decided in the south. Gephardt has a better chance of winning states like Texas than does Dean. This is where the wildcard comes in; that being, whether Graham or Edwards emerge as the "southern candidate." If they do, they could hold the balance of power. The other two advantages Gephardt has is labor support, and the likelihood that elected officials will flock to him as a way of "stopping" Dean.

Should Gephardt win out, Dean will still have a large number of delegates and a great deal of support, especially in the northeast and the west. In order to unify the party, and bring the Dean supporters enthusiastically on board, Gephardt will select Dean as his running mate. The fact that the two men are fond of one another doesn't hurt.

[Lost4words]

1. I wont vote for gephardt or lieberman ever.

and I am not alone!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Good For You

As a loyal Democrat I will vote for any Democrat that emerges victorious from the primaries.

[AntiCoup2K4]

54. So as a loyal Democrat, you'll vote for "Democrats" who aren't loyal??

Sorry, but I miss the logic in that. And no, I'm not a Greenie.

[Le Taz Hot]

2. Prediction

New Hampshire:

#1: Dean
#2: Kerry
#3: Gebhardt


I think Dean/Clark has a MUCH better ring to it.

[joeybee12]

3. As to your prediction, let me be the first to say...

...no way in hell is this outcome gonna happen!

[Le Taz Hot]

11. Watch us!

B-)

[laura888]

23. I like the sound of that...

...the 2 together would be a kick-ass combo!

[Prodemsouth]

31. The name Gephardt don't pop up in the mind when mentioning "Kick ass".

Predictions are worthless until late in the Primary. If this is the ticket in 04 the Bus is heading for Bushville, baring very big problems in the country: bad recession with double digit unemployment and disaster as yet unimagined over seas, mid east.

[AntiCoup2K4]

55. More like "kiss ass", actually.

Which is exactly what Dick, Holy Joe and the rest of the so called "leadership" in Congress have been doing. Makes you wish Robert Byrd was 30 years younger, since he seems to be one of the few who has any balls.

[nuxvomica]

4. This is my dream ticket

I hope this is how things turn out. I'd like to see Gephardt win the nomination because he has the labor creds and he appears to have broad appeal. The most "dangerous" thing he has proposed is the internationl minimum wage. This is a direct attack on the financial interests that control the WTO/IMF/World Bank and is the greatest hope for domestic and international economic stability and ultimately world peace.
Dean brings a revitalized Democratic base to the equation. Dean's not my candidate but I'm am an admirer of his organization's tactics and his outspoken criticism of the Bush administration.
A good team.

[GayboyBilly]

5. Well if your prediction comes true...

It's safe to say Bush will win in 2004.

[CMT]

6. your prediction is not inconceivable

I also think it could possibly turn out the other way: Dean/Gephardt--why? Gep is leaving congress and the VPship is now not an insignificant office. He comes from a border state which we narrowly lost in 2000. He has strong ties to organized labor a group we need to have working hard for the ticket in 2000.

[jonnyblitz]

7. that would suck

because of gephardt. I would vote for that ticket(ABB) but I wouldn't be fired up or enthused.

[flpoljunkie]

8. Dean will be no one's VP...

Dean has already burned all his bridges with all the Democratic candidates, IMO, by coming out of the gate attacking his fellow Democrats, one after the other.

Dean has evidently indicated to Terry McAuliffe that he is in the campaign ALL the way to November.

McAuliffe was on Capital Report on CNBC very recently when the host reported the above assertion by Dean. McAuliffe did not deny it, nor did he disparage Dean in any way.

[joeybee12]

9. You're right--Dean won't be VP

And part of the reason is that he seems to have the most ardent and fired-up supporters--can't see them letting him do this.

As for Gephart, I don't see that he has any support whatsoever. He is either running just to make a national name for himself, or has the world's biggest ego to think he could win.

[CMT]

14. his supporters have nothing to do with this decision

if he doesn't get the nomination I think they would be quite happy to see him as vice president. At least this supporter would. He is a good democrat and will support the eventual nominee anyway.

[joeybee12]

34. Supoorters DO have something to say...

...NOTHING to do with it? You're wrong. A candidacy that is supported by such passionate supporters will not be happy with him on the second place. He knows this.

Besides, this is all hypothetical. Gephradt will be dropping out after the first few primaries.

[Orangepeel]

29. Gephardt has strong Union support

Unions are very important to Democratic campaigns. In general, they provide lots of money and lots of labor.

[joeybee12]

32. Mondale had critical union support

It doiesn't always translate into votes. He doesn't seem to be catching on. As far as I'm concerned, he's the leader of the House Dems who couldn't get them back into the majority.

[Orangepeel]

39. I didn't say I thought he'd win...

because of Union support. But saying that Gephardt doesn't have "any support whatsoever" is clearly incorrect. He has strong union support and I think it is premature to count him out of the race entirely (even though I am obviously a Dean supporter)

Besides, the eventual Democratic nominee will have union support to some degree no matter who it is (although some will naturally have stronger union support than others)

[loyalsister]

58. He has little or no support in mid mo

I've talked to people who have gone to NH to campaign for his past runs who now want nothing to do with him. None of my local elected officials or those running in '04 have endorsed him. The local party base and activists in my area don't want him. The Dems have turned on Holden, so his support will not lend any credibility to the campaign.
Funny thing is, Gephardt is doing nothing to win here. He is taking it for granted. Meanwhile The Dean grassroots campaign is up and running and the local people are paying attention.

[CMT]

12. Dean was nowhere as critical as LBJ was in 1960 with JFK

calling him a lazy senator, said he had "rickets" and was "immature" and calling into question the patriotism of his father, Joseph Kennedy, as a Nazi sympathizer.

George Bush the first was very critical in the primaries of the policies of Ronald Reagan and Nancy hated the Bush's--still does.

My point is this is politics and you will choose someone you think will win. If Gephardt or some other democrat thinks that they can win with Dean they will take him. His comments have not been as bad as some other campaigns==alot of that is blown out of proportion.

[indigo32]

15. I've never heard that before

That he would run all the way to Nov no matter what, and as a current Dean supporter... I don't think I could support that at all. I will work hard to see he gets the nomination however.

[jos]

18. Probably cause it's not true

Dean is a loyal Democrat. What he probably meant was that he expects to be the nominee.

[flpoljunkie]

24. I was surprised to hear it, too.

Am looking for a link to the transcript, but there doesn't appear to be one. It was on just last night. The host's name is, by the way, Allan Murray. His co-host is Gloria Borger, formerly with Bob Schieffer on Face the Nation.

This is indeed significant, IMO, and McAuliffe as I said in my earlier post, did not deny it. We will see if someone in the media picks up on it.

[maha]

13. This is silly

Gephardt will fade. He should be expected to do well in Iowa, because he's been in Missouri politics (for the geographically challenged: Missouri is just south of Iowa) for years and years. Iowans have heard his name, at least, for a long time. The real test for Gephardt will be New Hampshire, and I predict he will come in behind Kerry and Dean and possibly others in New Hampshire.

[jos]

22. New Hampshire

Gephardt has nothing to lose in New Hampshire. The New England candidates are the ones who have every thing to lose.

[maha]

25. ???

And the moral is, you can't predict anything by one state's caucus/primary.

But if Gephardt is WAY back in New Hampshire, he should kiss it off. The point is to find a candidate who can win LOTS of states, not just the state next door.

[jos]

26. He'd have to do really poorly

Finishing fourth will not cost him anything because its Dean, Kerry and Lieberman territory. Finishing lower than that will hurt him on a sliding scale.

And let me make it clear that I am not a Gephardt supporter. I'm just looking at it as a political observer.

[maha]

37. I just don't see Gephardt

I'm from Missouri (but now live in New York) and I just don't see Gephardt as being Da Man. I think Lieberman and Gephardt both kissed it off when they stood up with Bush in the Rose Garden last fall and expressed solidarity with the Iraq War plans. Other Dems voted for the damn resolution, of course, but they did so with expressed reservations.

I predict Lieberman will be very disappointed with New Hampshire, and that Lieberman and Gephardt will both fade and be among the first to drop out.

[demnan]

16. Texas, no way

Texas will go to Bush. I think that's a certainty.

[jos]

20. Talking about the primary

.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. Of Course

I think he means the priamries.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. A Couple of Points

I think Gephardt is the Democratic party's Bob Dole.

"Gephardt's been a good Democrat. He's paid his dues. Let's give him the nomination."

This doesn't mean he's a bad guy.

What happens if Dean beats Gephardt in Iowa and Kerry in New Hampshire effectively knocking out both.

Then the primaries go south and west. I like Graham cuz he's my senator but I think John Edwards is in better shape to stop Dean.
I think John Edwards can play the populist card against Howard Brush Dean111 that Bill Clinton so effectively played against Jerry Brown and Paul Tsongas in 1992. The only fly in the ointment in this scenario is Al Sharpton who can drain African American voters who would gravitate towards Edwards.

What about Lieberman?

He'll be gone after South Carolina

If the DLC is smart they'll drop Lieberman. It's not the message as much as the messenger. He's awful.

[tjdee]

28. They did. Kerry's their man now.

There's a thread on it in Politics and Campaigns.

I don't know why, Kerry's way more liberal than they are and has done nothing to woo them his way. I think they're cracking up at the DLC, they're doing things that don't make any sense.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. He Recently

joined the DLC but it's an ill fit.

Kerry is a garden variety liberal not a New Democrat.

That being said I am beginning to think I don't know what any of these labels mean anymore.

I thought Clinton ran as a populist in 1992 not a New Democrat. Who knows?

[tedoll78]

30. Very possible.

Dean is in striking distance in both IA and NH. One big X-Factor is that we don't know how many new people he's going to bring into the process. The polls of likely caucus voters and likely primary voters are usually from lists of known Democrats. If new people are brought into the process en masse.. look out.

Then we go west and south. The South seems like it will be a weakness for Dean, but there was a good article posted on here about how he's running very well in Georgia at this point. West, he's tied for first in big ol' California, he's strong in Washington, and it seems like he's gung-ho about getting Texas' delegates. If he can win in these places, I'm guessing that it's likely that he can round-up enough delegates from other places to win the nomination.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

38. I Do Not See A Northerner

winning any of the southern primaries when there is a prominent southerner in the race.

The only time I remember seeing it happen was when Dukakis carried Florida against Al Gore in 1988 but Florida is an anomaly in certain ways.

I also think Edwards can emerge as the populist candidate ala Bill Clinton in 1992. He needs to refine his pitch but there's plenty of time.

[newsguyatl]

52. TRUST me

on this one: Dean WILL win GEORGIA in the primary...

you can take THAT to the bank

[DemocratSinceBirth]

53. you mean the way

Paul Tsongas, the Howard Dean of his day beat Bill Clinton in Georgia in 1992.

[loyalsister]

61. Missouri is a possibility

I talked to a legislator yesterday who said that guns are more important to rural voters than abortion. That gives Dean quite an advantage with rural voters here. Missouri is usually a good meter for the south and the midwest. As Missouri goes so goes the country in the general. This primary could be very interesting here with the gun issue neutralized by one candidate.

[quinnox]

36. Another scenario

and one that is more likely. Gephardt beats Dean in Iowa, and Kerry beats Dean in New Hampshire, leaving Dean all but out of the race.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. Dean's Gone Then

I still think John Edwards emerges as the populist alternative.

[OKNancy]

46. A loss in new Hampshire and or Iowa doesn't mean that much anymore

and, as you know, I'm not a Dean supporter. With all the front loaded primaries, it won't mean a thing two weeks after Iowa and NH.

And don't forget, the Democrats do not do a winner take all primary.
A second in both could actually put him ahead if the winner is split.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. Edwards, Graham, and Gephardt Can Afford A Loss In New Hampshire

If Kerry loses it's the end of the road.


I didn't mention Joe because I think he's irrelevant.

[quinnox]

49. Here is an analysis on the primary strategy

that I found on the internet that I think is excellent.

Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean are the pacesetters. Following the traditional nomination path, they are seeking victories Jan. 19 in Iowa or eight days later in New Hampshire to build momentum for the first multistate showdown Feb. 3.


Sens. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, John Edwards of North Carolina and Bob Graham of Florida are betting their candidacies on a largely untested theory - that they can wait until Feb. 3 or beyond for their first victories.

KERRY: The four-term senator is casting himself as the front-runner. But he is not the candidate leading in national polls (Lieberman), fund raising (Edwards) or even in experience as a presidential candidate (Gephardt).

Kerry hopes to knock Gephardt from the race in Iowa and storm into New Hampshire, a state that shares a media market with the senator's native Massachusetts. From there, Kerry hopes to win the nomination wire-to-wire.


DEAN: The physician-turned-politician is slightly trailing Kerry in New Hampshire polls and has built an organization in Iowa second only to Gephardt. But he has relatively little money or support from traditional corners of the party.

The former governor needs to catch fire in Iowa and New Hampshire, then use that momentum to raise money as he goes. It is a page from the 1984 playbook of Gary Hart but with a twist: Dean is using the Internet to court campaign workers and donors.

He hopes the compressed primary calendar plays to his favor, giving more established rivals little time to recover if he surprises them early.

GEPHARDT: The former House minority leader revitalized his campaign with an ambitious health care plan. He wants the two New England candidates, Dean and Kerry, to siphon votes from each other while he plies his blue-collar populist message in Iowa and New Hampshire.

He won Iowa in 1988 but lost the nomination. If he loses the caucuses this time, Gephardt's candidacy is over.

A veteran campaigner, he meets 50 to 70 Iowans at a time, with a special emphasis on rural voters largely ignored by the other campaigns.

After Iowa, Gephardt has his eye on anti-trade, union and black votes in places such as South Carolina and Michigan. Edwards is competing in the same states with the same message.

EDWARDS: The first-term senator and wealthy former trial lawyer stumbled after posting impressive fund-raising numbers in March. But he has announced several new policies, including a $1 billion plan for rural America.

Edwards hopes Gephardt gets knocked out in Iowa, giving him room to make a populist pitch in the Feb. 3 races. He needs to win outside his native South Carolina (birthplace Seneca, S.C.) or he will be limping into Michigan's Feb. 7 primary.

[loyalsister]

60. Good analogy

between candidates.
However, I think Dole's candidacy was a capitulation and I don't think Democrats are willing to do that with this election.

[Walt Starr]

19. A snowball has a better chance in the Sahara

than Gephardt stands of winning the nomination.

Seriously, there is no way in hell Gephardt is going to last past February, let alone win the nomination.

[BrewCrew]

43. thats a solid ticket

Don't underestimate the Gephardt! He seems to be averaging a union endorsement a day these days and some of the bigger ones Machinists, Teamsters are starting to come over. I imagine most of the industrial unions will eventually endorse the guy. He definitely deserves it from those type of unions. Not sure that'll be enough to secure the full AFL though. He has a good organization in Iowa and is not from new England, so taht tells you the expectations.

The problem is that the guy has not turned any of these endorsements into dollars. These bigger unions, however, did not jump on-board until this quarter, so he must turn that into money. I know he's fine cash-on hand wise, but unless he has a solid quarter the media might write the guy off. Since they pick our candidates for us that'll be a problem for him.

Now onto the possibility of a Gep/Dean ticket. Besides Reagan/Bush and JFK/LBJ, I can't think of many nominees who have picked a primary opponent as a running mate. I know Gephardt and Dean really like each other and our friends. Dean worked hard for Dick in 88 and I think Gep has campaign for Dean in VT? Anyway. I know things will probably get pretty hot and heavy and intense between these two in the primaries, I think it's that conflict that makes it hard for a nominee to pick a primary opponent as VEEP. Enough if the two are friends. Given their friendship, I do expect each to camapign for the other should he be the nominee.

The calendar. It's all about expectations! Politics is expectations. And the expectation is that Gephardt will win Iowa. If Dean manages to win the Hawkeye state well then. bury Gep with it! After that it shifts to NH, which is Kerry/Dean battle and unless Biden or Lieberman really emerge. It will stay that way. If Dean wins both IA and NH, he may just be the snowball no one can stop.

If that happens the DLC and those establishment folk will form an "stop-Dean" however they'll have to pick someone besides Gep or Kerry because both have went head to head with Dean and lost. So I'd guess they'd get behind Edwards in SC. He'll have plenty of money and not really any expectations performance wise at that point. So a win in SC would make it a Dean/Edwards battle to the end.

Now should Gep win Iowa as expected and Dean wins NH it does move to a battle between those two. For 1 moment do not discount Dean's grassroots, but also I know Gephardt has the endorsement of several black mayors in SC and the possible help of Clyburn, so he could do well there, especially if he wins Iowa. After that it does move to states like Michigan and Wisconsin. Gephardt will have labor behind him in those states, but I'm not sure that'll be enough.

Anyway. This is all speculation, but I think Dick will be a lot more competetive then peeps realize, especially if his 3rd quarter is solid.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. Al Sharpton Is The Wild Card

He's the spoiler in this race.

He threatens to take African American votes that would gravitate towards John Edwards.

He's playing the same role that Jesse Jackson played in 84. He made the Mondale-Hart race much closer by taking away African American voters that would have went to Mondale.

Don't forget African Americans make up nearly thirty percent of the Democratic base.

[maha]

56. Oh, please

African American voters aren't that stupid.

[tjdee]

27. Gephardt is trading on his name. That's it.

He's well known, he places high in the polls because of his labor record and his name.

He is falling behind in fundraising, he and Lieberman both.

I think both of them should drop out right now and let the ego go, but they won't.

But there's no way either of them get the nomination and win.

If Dick Gephardt wins the White House, I will eat my shoes. And I don't mean a shoe cake.

Not gonna happen.

[Booberdawg]

33. Bad prediction

Gephardt - not likely
Dean won't take a VP spot

[Mairead]

41. THen I'll write in Kucinich's name

or vote Green, depending.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

42. Don't let the door hit ya where the dog should have bit ya

[poskonig]

44. Gephardt can win...

but he is not going to win NH. Gephardt's going to try to take Iowa and South Carolina and work from there.

I also don't see Gephardt selecting the charismatic Dean for a running mate. Gephardt would probably run the youthful looking (I know, he is in his 50s) Edwards as his sidekick.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. If Dean Knocks Off Gephardt

in Iowa he's finished

[Snellius]

50. Dean is not a second-tier kind of guy

I can't imagine Dean as V.P. but his candidacy may push the nomination left center rather than the center right position of Gephardt. I would look for Dean-Graham or Kerry-Graham.

[pansypoo53219]

51. unfortunately

not a lot of people belong to unions anymore.
and i really don't see gephardt as a winner. EYEBROWS PEOPLE. BUT,
JUST KEEPS EYES ON PRIZE.
BOOT BUSH!

[mndemocrat_29]

57. Not unplausible

I don't think this would be our strongest ticket (that would be either Kerry/Graham or Kerry/Clark), but it does sound good. Dean being on the bottom of the ticket wouldn't scare away moderate voters (who for some reason think he's really liberal, despite the fact that Kerry and probably Edwards are both more so). A lot of people change their opinions of the ticket once the number two man came out. I think that Al Gore being on the ticket in 1992 helped Clinton immensely, Quayle being on the ticket hurt Bush a lot, Dukakis would've been creamed without Bentsen (that ticket should've been flipped), and Mondale would've lost by a lot more without Ferraro.

Gephardt does have a midwestern appeal, and (unlike the South) we must deliver the Midwest in order to win the 2004 election. Gephardt would also help in the South. I doubt he'd win states like North Carolina or Georgia, but his appearance on the ticket could launch those Senate races into our territory. Gephardt's best claim would be that he could take states like Arizona, Missouri, and Arkansas, all three states that would deliver us the election. He, however, could be viewed as the Bob Dole and he's angered a lot of liberals, which could hurt him in states like Michigan or Pennsylvania. Having Dean would keep liberals close to ballot.

Gephardt won't receive the nomination for the same reason he'd have difficulties winning: his debating skills. In order to beat Bush, we can't have someone who could simply tie Bush in debating, we have to have someone who would flat out beat him, so that all political pundits agree the Democrats won the debates. This would cause a rise of Democratic support and would reenergize the Democrats who may see 2004 as a lost cause. Kerry and Clark are currently the best debators that have been mentioned and would both have a great chance at outdebating Bush/Cheney.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

59. Agree In Part....Disagree In Part

It's hard to imagine Mondale doing worse. He carried only one state and that was his home state by 3,000 votes. He got 41% of the vote,not much better than McGovern's 38%.

I agree the Dukakis-Bentsen ticket would have been better flipped but given that it wasn't Bentsen brought nothing to the ticket. Bush 41 swept the South cept West Virginia.

Gephardt is a great debater. I've seen him on the House floor. He's a lawyer and his under graduate degree was in Theatre. He'd mop the floor with Bush

All the Dems would make mince meat out of Chimpy cept Kucinich and Lieberman. Lieberman because he's milquetoat and Kucinich because he's not the brightest bulb in the room.

Anybody who saw Kucinich taken apart by Tweety should shudder at the prospect of him in a debate.

[aquart]

62. This is a joke thread, right?

Gephardt screwed up the congressional elections. Now you want to give him the nation?

Okay, I've stopped laughing now.

His primaries tallies will suck. That's MY prediction.

Baby's got blood on his hands.

[TheReligiousLeft]

63. Funny, that's the ticket I had a dream about

And they won by 7 electorial votes. Bush told his thugs that he had won and they just needed to "pull the trigger" then someone shot a Dean supporter early on election day, so there was an anti-stupid rhetoric backlash and Gephardt/Dean won!

[Rhiannon12866]

64. Sounds like a great ticket. Where do I sign?

I'm quite serious. I believe that Gephardt has the experience, the knowledge and the centrist appeal, while Dean has attracted quite a following, but middle-of-the-road voters would be afraid of him in the top position. Sign me up, I'll vote now. While you're at it, hire a moving company for the squatter-in-chief.