The Effects of the Bush Tax Cut Plan on Social Security, 2001-10
Citizens for Tax Justice, February 2000 202-626-3780
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Texas Governor George W. Bush has promised that his huge tax cut plan will not endanger the Social Security trust fund. But, in fact, the cost of the Bush tax cuts would far exceed officially projected non-social-security budget surpluses over the next decade. As a result, the Bush tax plan would raid as much as three-quarters of the ten-year projected Social Security surpluses.
Over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office projects budget surpluses, excluding Social Security, of $838 billion--assuming that discretionary appropriations are held flat in inflation-adjusted dollars.(1) If one instead assumes that discretionary appropriations will grow with population as well as inflation, then these projected budget surpluses fall to only $399 billion. If, as seems most likely based on the historical record and current political climate, appropriations keep up with the economy, then the entire non-social-security surplus disappears.
Meanwhile, over their first nine years (fiscal 2002-10), the Bush tax cuts would cost $1.8 trillion (including $265 billion in added interest costs). As a result, over the next decade, the Bush tax cuts would far exceed all reasonable projections of upcoming non-social-security surpluses.
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http://www.ctj.org/html/bush02an.htm