Ahnuld says Bush can win CA - can he?

[InhaleToTheChief]

http://www.knoxstudio.com/shns/story.cfm?pk=BUSHCAL-03-07-04&cat=PP

So, what gives? Is the Terminator blowing hot air, like Edwards the night before Super Tuesday, or Dean the night before Wisconsin, saying they'll go on, because what are you gonna say? "Yeah, I'm just about licked..."

Likewise, Ahnuld can't say, "Well, Bush has no chance here...why try?

So, is it hot air or can this popular movie star governor make it happen? I know many people would say that this has all been a part of the recall plan, and I'm sure it is, but is it a realistic hope?

Finally, if Bush does win California, is there any hope at all of beating him?

This is one Californian who would be on the next plane off the continent if Bush won the Golden State...

[lazarus]

1. He has no chance

He got substantially fewer votes than all Democrats combined yesterday.

The only way he wins is if Diebold is on his side.

Oh, wait....

[Columbia]

4. That doesn't mean much though

It was mostly us Democrats voting for the nominee so it may not have been representative of who would vote in Nov.

[lazarus]

29. remember

There were some substantial amendments up on the ballot, as well. Places like San Diego and Orange County had fairly large Republican turnout.

[Columbia]

32. True

I still think that there will probably be more Repub voters in the GE than this one. I really don't think even Arnold can help pull off an upset here, but we can't rest easy and figure it's in the bag.

[CityZen-X]

31. Bu$h*t vs. Shinola

We Californian's may be a potpourri of many angles, but one thing we can do, and that is differentiate between Bu$h*t & Shinola! As for those who are "Caleefonians" as the Gropinator calls them, I would not be concerned, for they don't even know who they are.

[Hammie]

36. That is meaningless

Many republicans probably didn't even bother to vote for Bush since he was the only one on their ballot.

[lazarus]

50. So are you saying

They came out to vote, and left the ballot empty? Or just didn't bother to vote at all?

[Hammie]

64. I'm saying

That the big draw on the ballot was the four statewide initiatives. Only Democrats had an interesting slate of candidates. Most of the other parties only had one. If all it was was a primary, everyone but Dems would have stayed home.

Assuming that some significant fraction of the population shares my tedency to not bother making a selection when there is only one choice, I conclude that the number of repubs that actually went to the polls was significantly larger than votes for bush would indicate.

[Piperay]

62. Chimp was the only one on the ballot but

I have a repug acquaintance who is so disgusted and repulsed by chimp that they did a write in and wrote in Tom Laughlin (of Billy Jack fame, he was running as a repug write in) on their ballot. They did that because they wanted it to register as a vote against chimp hoping to send a message to repugs that there is opposition to chimp even among party members.

[Columbia]

2. Doubtful

However, if he does win CA, it would not bode well for Kerry electorally.

[seabeyond]

3. no.....it is only a game

it is to feed the bush support. no no no he cannot and they all know it.

[lancdem]

5. He has no chance

Relax.

[mot78]

6. No but this scenario will be floated throughout the election

The whores also talked about it during the last election.

[wjittermoss]

7. Ahnuld cannot seriously want what's best for the US if he supports Bush.

He's just another actor-opportunist with a self-agrandizing agenda.

[SoCalDem]

8. D I E B O L D ...and S E Q U O I A ...and E S & S

This is the "set up".. Kelli-fornyuh is in play.. The race will be close enough to steal, so no one will complain when Bush manages to "win" the California electoral votes..

[Joanne98]

34. That's what I think

And that damn traitor Feingold, is doing nothing to help. Someone needs to start taking signatures for a recall NOW.

[hellhathnofury]

47. Feinstein.

Feingold is a great progressive senator from Wisconsin.

[InhaleToTheChief]

9. Can anyone illustrate a scenario...

...just for the hell of it...where Bush wins CA, but Kerry wins the election? Where could he possibly make up those electoral votes? It seems to me that the only way the Dems win is by winning the big number states...the vast majority of states go Repub.

[ButterflyBlood]

10. no

people said the same thing in 2000 and Bush actually tried for it, and lost big time.

[John BigBootay]

35. Things are different now-- this is not 2000....

that said, he has about a snowball's chance in hell.

[childslibrarian]

I remember they seriously floated this line last time...

And it wasn't even close. I can't see Arnold drumming up that many repub votes. He is guvnor more because of the dislike of Wilson than his own overwhelming popularity.

[Sandpiper]

11. Bush lost Cali

By more than 1.3 million votes in 2000. There's just nothing to convince me that he's become that much more popular in 2004. I predict shrub loses big again.

[LeftCoast]

12. Not going to happen, and if it does

it'd the best evidence yet of election fraud. The only way Bush wins in CA is if he wins a national landslide.

[proud patriot]

13. Well I can only speak for my area

Bush will lose the bay area .

[catzies]

44. Bush won't lose Ventura County, where I live.

"Bakersfield by the Sea." x(

[ButterflyBlood]

51. actually, I bet he will

2000 Ventura county results:

Gore: 47.1%
Bush: 48.2%
Nader: 3.6%

just need a slight pickup from the Nader voters.

[catzies]

65. Sorry. I just can't take that bet.

Looks close enough to steal to me -- and that might be all that he needs here.

[Demobrat]

14. Well....Arnie's on a roll.

After the way the Dems lined up to kiss his fat ass prior to yesterday's election, in which he got everything he wanted, I just don't know if Democrats have any credibility left here at all, except maybe in the SF Bay area. What Arnie wants, Arnie seems to get.

[lancdem]

22. That doesn't help Bush

Pete Wilson couldn't help Poppy Bush and Bob Dole win California.

[Demobrat]

28. Pete Wilson ain't Arnie.

Frankly the man terrifies me. I'm really afraid that the contingent that put him in office will do whatever he says. And if he goes negative on Kerry....let's just say I may never leave San Francisco again.

[InhaleToTheChief]

15. OK, but say he *does* win...

...is it over for Kerry? There is nowhere else to make up those electoral votes, right?

FWIW, I too believe it is all hot air. No way Cali will turn to the dark side. But I will say that among a lot of my friends, the Nader/Green factor looms large.

[K8-EEE]

16. Austrian Souffle' -- Bush Ain't Winning CA Without A Fix!!

I don't know anybody who likes Bush (here in L.A.)

Those "centrists" who voted for him feel like he's off in wing-nut land with the amendment etc...and the convervatives are mad at his fiscal irresponsiblity and the libertarians are mad at the parriot act etc...

He's getting NO crossover votes this time...TOAST!

[meti57b]

17. we're going to need to work to keep California voting Democratic.

ahnold is an immensely popular movie star, who people are accustomed to seeing in hero roles. He is currently being credited with the passage of his ballot initiatives. He threatens to campaign against our Democratic legislators in their own districts.

We can't take anything for granted in California. We are going to need to work and donate to keep California voting Democratic.

[eissa]

21. but the governator

is really a social democrat. The cross-over votes he got were due to that, as well as the fact that Gray Davis was so unpopular across the board. It's a different story with *.

[AgadorSparticus]

56. I disagree. Ahnuld WAS a popular movie star.

He spent weeks parroting the GOP with the I-hate-gay-marriages and suddenly does a 180. I doubt it's because he's seen the light. I just find it hard to believe this won't bite him in the ass.

[necso]

18. The repugs have been planning for some time,

to make CA a battleground state. If you believe the rumors, Arny's part in this started at least as early as the planning for T3.

Still I think that it is unlikely that * can win here. I can't rule it out because of the general apathy of the population and the irresponsibility of their voting record.

If * even makes CA competitive, we are in real trouble. Just by diverting Democratic resources to this state the repugs would gain a significant strategic advantage.

One could argue that four more years of * would bring a great change for the better in national politics, but this is unlikely.

You boil a life frog by heating the water slowly. By 2008 it will be boiling.

[lancdem]

23. We can't take it for granted

but California hasn't come close to voting Dem in presidential elections since 1988, and I don't see why 2004 is any different. Bush is not popular nationally or in California.

[necso]

30. True.

We have to be prepared to fight on every front... and in the rear. Still I would hate to see a large amount of spending being required here. This would hurt us badly elsewhere, but, of course, we absolutely must win here.

The repugs may be blind, deaf and stupid... but the bastards are crafty and completely unhindered by any ethics.

[revree]

19. Ahnold will grope his way to a win for Bush

they both make this Californian sick to my stomach

[abbyhoffman]

20. Yes

It is possible, not likely but possible

[tobius]

24. Arnold was mocked when he ran for Guv, and he was mocked 3-4 weeks

ago about the chances that his 2 ballot propositions would pass. If Kerry takes CA for granted he may regret it.

Article dated 2/24/04-

"Last month, just 33 percent of likely voters backed Prop. 57. A separate statewide poll released last week put support at 38 percent just as Schwarzenegger's multimillion-dollar television advertising campaign was taking off.
http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/news/politics/elections/8026551.htm
Support for Prop. 58 is also growing. The Field Poll showed that a majority of voters -- 55 percent -- now back the ballot measure, up from 49 percent a month ago."

Prop 57 passed with 61.3% support and Prop 58 by 70.5%

[InhaleToTheChief]

25. It's truly frightening...

...the influence television, movies and celebrity have over people. Damn, people, throw the damn idiot box out the window. It is our soma, and our downfall!

[eissa]

26. Those props passed because of democrats

like Steve Westly and Dianne Feinstein, among others, who appeared in ads supporting them. As usual, we only have ourselves to blame.

[Sandpiper]

54. Props 57 & 58 were total sellouts by the dems

Who for some reason have decided that they need to rubber stamp Gropenfurher's agenda. Since steroid lad came to Sacramento, they've all decided to don their pink tutus.

[tobius]

57. He ran on a platform of

bipartisanship, cruising around with gray davis is a tough one to shrug off.

[saltpoint]

27. Hapless Chimp Buried in Blue Landslide in --

-- California.

Boxer crushes Jones, too.

[meow mix]

33. California is NOT SAFE

bush is encumbant,
he has the media,
he has arnold (the perceived hero)
and a vast republican machine, working here.

last year..
all the dems came (including clinton).. and were unable to stop the
repub blitzkrieg.

i am not at all comfortable with saying CA is safe.
i wish it was clark.
quite frankly, im very worried.

[VOX]

37. I'd like to think that CA voters know better, but look what they did ...

by letting Arnold in the house.

For historical reference, Nixon won California in 1960, and still lost the general election too Kennedy.

1960 Election Results (Red States - Democratic victories)

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

39. "Southern Strategy" had not yet taken full flower yet though

[Hammie]

38. It's possible

Keep in mind that the total number of votes cast for republican candidates in the recall election was 2X the total number of votes cast for Democratic candidates. Kerry will have to win California, it won't just fall in his lap.

[cally]

40. I don't think Bush can win California

Remember Arnie (so he says) is a social moderate or liberal. Pro-envrironment, pro-choice, pro gay marriage (well sort of) Arnie has movie star appeal and ran as the outsider. Bush cannot do that and he is very conservative. Few in California like the religious right stuff. Most will vote against candidates who try to run that way. If this election is at all competitive, Kerry has some money, and it's close than I believe Kerry will win this. If for some reason it's a Bush blowout, :shudder: then Bush could win. We would be losing nationwide if that happens.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

41. Californians. What has the effect of the gay marriage brouhaha

been? My hope is that in a largely "progressive" state like CA this would hurt rather than help the shrub giving Kerry more breathing room. Any evidence of this?

[cally]

49. Well, I live in the SF Bay Area

and interact with mostly liberal folks (not by DU standards, but liberal) What I hear is amazement, humor, and support. Very few of us don't know long time gay/lesbian couples. I'm not saying that all support gay marriage, just that I don't hear any fear or hatred of gays and lesbians. I hear lot's of support for Newsom for his courage even from folks who don't agree. It would be very different in other parts of the state.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

42. RW pundits like George Will have been pimping the "CA in play"

scenario like they pimp Hilary swooping down from a broom during the convention to be the VP candidate, "save" a brokered convention, etc. It would mean a certain GWB landslide if CA was lost, but the scenario is unlikely.

[Sandpiper]

53. The Wingnut pundits keeping hoping

That if they wish hard enough, it will make it so. Calfornia doesn't like Bush.

[catzies]

43. THINK IT CAN'T HAPPEN HERE?

I think it can. I thnk that's why they put him in there.

You dance with them that brung you.

This Californian is fighting hard, every day to stop the GOP encroachment. I live in "Reagan Country," for god's sake and things are getting worse!

I can't do it alone. Please don't leave; stay with me and fight!

[Disturbed]

45. Highly unlikely but

Dems shouldn't take anything for granted. Use Absentee Ballots!!!

[yellowcanine]

46. Bush is going to get flattened in California.

Kerry wins by at least 10 points. This is another recall election but this time the one being recalled is a Pubbie. Sorry, Gropeman.

[historian]

48. take heart

His wife , a Kennedy, is a devout progressive liberal and is very much opposed to his policies. How much influence she has on him I dont know, but i truly hope that if he gets out of hand, she will reign him in.

[leesa]

52. Diebold. It's how Arnold got the job.

[uhhuh]

55. It's as likely as Kerry and Nader

each individually getting more votes than the chimp in Texas. I guess it's possible, but not all likely.

[pinniped]

58. No FCUKing way...everyone here hates that AWOL POS!

Even people I know that actually liked chimpy after 9/11 have since turned against him.

[Sugarbleus]

59. I am REALLY worried about that...

We didn't have as great a turnout for primaries, not as great as some other states. That made me worry. So few people I know even bothered to vote!! I was pissed.

Then I talked to my daughter. She said her father--we are fairly friendly-- would not vote for Bush only IF there was someone better to vote for. ??????? what does that mean. I'm scared.

The repugs have crept into this state and my "liberal" city like a FUNGUS. They are every where.

[Cat Atomic]

60. The Bush campaign must think it's possible to take CA.

Bush's amnesty plan wasn't only about undermining domestic labor. I think it was also partially meant to pander to the Mexican immigrants in California. It's backfired big time, but still.

And of course, if "terrorists" target something in California, that could also help Bush's chances. Get the voters good and scared.

Tinfoil hat, I know.

[Piperay]

61. Blowing hot air out of his ass

is what the groper is doing. The repugs are fooling themselves if they think that the state is going their way just because they were able to recall a Gov who was so unpopular. The recall of Davis was a fluke, the guy was getting his palms greased by everyone imaginable and most Democrats didn't like him and had to hold their nose to vote against the recall and not enough of them could manage to do that.

[rman]

63. Arnold can probably "deliver the votes", sure

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