The Official Osama bin Laden Prediction Thread

[JohnLocke]

DU Osama Bin Laden Pool

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RULES: Please Read Before Posting
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1. This thread is designed for the purpose of choosing the day that Osama bin Laden will be "captured," killed, or besieged and for all purposes, trapped. Each DU member can post only one time. If Osama binLaden is not in any of these conditions by 12:01 AM the day after Election Day (Tuesday, November 2, 2004) then the contest will be null and void.
2. The format will be as follows: Post the day in the subject line. Spell out the day of the week, month, day, and year, like this: Friday, April 21, 2003. Include the tiebreakers: the primary tiebreaker (the nation in which bin Laden will be found) and the secondary tiebreaker (the time of the day when he will be "caught/discovered dead"). Use Eastern Standard Time and be sure to specify PM or AM.
3. In case of a tie, the tiebreaker shall be the nation in which bin Laden will be found. In case two people come up with both the same day and same nation, the tiebreaker shall be the time of day he will be caught. If bin Laden is "captured/discovered dead" on a day where no member has predicted, the title shall be passed to the person closest to the date and time.
4. No betting. This contest is for bragging rights and the title of “official winner of the bin Laden pool” only, and whatever other gifts or honors the members, moderators, or administrators may wish to grant.
5. Members who post a correct answer and were subsequently banned are not eligible and the title of “official winner” shall be passed to second place.
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Let the guessing begin, and keep this kicked.

[JohnLocke]

1. Sunday, September 25, 2004 (my guess).

Nation: Pakistan
Time: 12:00 PM (noon) EST

[Richardo]

65. Monday, November 1, 2004

Nation: Pakistan
Time: 7:10 AM EST

Morning news cycle...maximize the bump! After two or three days it will be gone.

[DuctapeFatwa]

2. Hint Number 749

http://dissidentvoice.org/Mar04/Fatwa0301.htm

[hang a left]

10. You are not gonna win Ductape if you don't pick a date.

Oh nevermind, I want the banner.

[DuctapeFatwa]

21. It might be a trap. I'm on a heightened state of alert

[DevinDNC]

3. Bin Laden will remain active untill a REAL American takes charge

Here is a prediction: as long as an incompetent sissy like George Bush is in office, Osama Bin Laden will get "a pass". Once Kerry is in office Bin Laden will be dead and in a dirt hole where he belongs.

[Florida_Geek]

4. Not before the election

But Bush will tell we were this close but need more time.

[hang a left]

5. Thursday April 22, 2004

Bin Laden shall be reportedly caught alive,

the day before the Plame indictments. April 22, 2004. I guess the time it will be announced will be at 7:45 AM Pacific Standard Time.

The nation he will be reportedly captured in shall be Afghanistan.

edit to put date in subject line.

edited one more time for coherency

[JohnLocke]

6. Put it in the subject line.

Thanks.

[teach1st]

7. Thursday, April 1, 2004

Nation: Iran
Time: 6:00 am EST

[lovedems]

8. Monday, August 23, 2004

3:00 pm
Pakistan

They will pull him out just before the convention in NYC and I chose 3 pm so they will have time to air it on the evening news that night. They will need a couple of days to get the info. out and then have a "happy convention".

[Dogmudgeon]

9. 01 Jul 2004

There it is -- and in Military format, too.

It will spin the "patriotism" of the Independence Day holiday in a way to enhance Bush. At the same time, it will take it out of the running as an October Surprise.

I guess it means that they will have to start thawing the corpse out sometime around June 26. But that's just a detail.

--bkl

[JohnLocke]

16. I need a nation and time.

[Dogmudgeon]

45. 01 July 2004 -- Saudi Arabia, 0045 Z

Possibly Pakistan, but I'll commit to Saudi Arabia.

0045 Z is 3:45 AM local time in Riyadh.

--bkl

[Cat Atomic]

11. Saturday, August 28, 2004

Pakistan, 10AM EST

[JohnLocke]

13. I need a nation and time.

[Cat Atomic]

20. *fixed*

Edited above.

[JohnLocke]

24. Thanks.

[JohnLocke]

87. Kick

[JohnLocke]

107. Kick

[dakota_democrat]

12. Here it is!!!

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

Place: Afghanistan
Time: 4:43 P.M.

[JohnLocke]

14. Put the day in your subject line.

[JohnLocke]

15. Put the day in your subject line.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

17. Wednesday, December 19, 2001

[JohnLocke]

22. I need a time and place.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

49. Tora Bora, 6:57 p.m. GMT

:shrug:

[AmandaRuth]

18. Monday October 25, 2004

giving a them a a week or so to whip everyone (the freepers) into a frenzy.

[JohnLocke]

23. I need a time and place.

[AmandaRuth]

29. Saudi Arabia

4 am in the morning

[Ekova]

19. Sunday, July 25th, 2004, 5am

Yemen.

Just as the money runs out for the Afghanistan campaign.

[reggaehead]

25. Not so much a prediction

as a connection of the dots.

Date: Sept 12 2001
Country: USA
Site of Apprehension: Crawford, Texas
Current Condition: Resting comfortably after successful kidney
surgery.

Present location: Bush compound: Kennebunkport, Maine.

[Ishoutandscream]

52. Ha Ha!!! There goes my coffee!!!

You made my morning!!! Welcome to our humble commode.

[JohnLocke]

95. Heh.

Welcome to DU. :)

:yourock:

[morgan2]

26. wednesday june 30th

2am in pakistan. A few days before July 4th, so everyone will be talking about it over vacations and praising Bush. Early in the morning so that day everyone will talk about it at work. Not so close to the elections that its obvious... Need someone to setup a futures market for this shit ;)

[Roon]

27. May 10th 2005

Bin Laden's body will be discovered in Tora Bora.

[JohnLocke]

28. I need a time.

[Roon]

32. 12:00 PM EST

eom

[blackcat77]

30. Announced September 2, 2004 4:30 pm ET

I picked that date because that's the day Bush will be officially coronated by the Republican convention. I picked the time because that's enough to let the rumours percolate all day and still make the evening news. Look for a 10-minute standing ovation by the people at the convention before Bush speaks.

Location of capture -- what the heck, can't be Afghanistan because we already won there. So let's say Pakistan.

[Demonaut]

31. May 18th 2004 8:00am

[Mattforclark]

33. September 21, 2004

September 21, 2004

Nation: Pakistan
Time: 05:26 AM EST




My birthday!

[ogakor]

34. Tuesday, October 5, 2004

Call me a traditionalist. I believe in the October Surprise. Tuesday is a nice mid-week time for breaking news. If I'm off, it will be because I was exactly 2 weeks early.

[ithacan]

35. Monday, July 26th, 2004, Afghanistan, 3pm EST

The timing: Perfect to overshadow the Democratic Convention.

This deprives the Dems of a platform to tell the nation the truth about Bush and not have right wing shills butting in. It also puts the Dems in a bind, unless they are courageous and stick with their convictions, on the whole "war president" bullshit.

Afghanistan will be the "official" location (I think they've actually got him in Pakistan somewhere, but it would be too incendiary I think to capture him there).

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

38. friday, july 30, 2004

afghanistan, 0400am

i'm betting the convention is too obvious. rove will wait to take the post convention boost away from kerry.

edit spelling

[Ilsa]

36. Sunday, October 10, 2004, Afghanistan, 6AM EST

He'll be starting to thaw out and smell really rank and the CIA ops guys will dump him out because they can't handle the odor.

[Maddy McCall]

37. Friday, October 8, 2004 - Pakistan - 4:00 AM Eastern

[theorist]

39. Saturday, September 11, 2003

Uzbekistan
6:00 PM

[nefarious]

40. I predict he is NOT FOUND before the election

Since there is no positive record for the pResident to stand on and the general fear factor is quietly fading, our present administration will be forced to use their last resort to improve their approval ratings/ voter polls. To retain power, the evil PNAC cabal must have Osama bin Laden at large so he can be accused of masterminding Horrific Tragedy No. 2.

NOTHING could be more damaging for BushCo than to trot out a captured OBL to deafening applause only to have Horrific Tragedy No. 2 occur between then and the elections, sadly showing what a tremendous waste of lives and resources it was to pursue bin Laden/ al Qaeda all along... and how wrong BushCo was about what it would take to eliminate the terror threat.

[leyton]

41. Friday, July 2, 2004.

Pakistan.

1:15 AM Eastern Time.

[mike1963]

42. 4/10/04 in Afghanistan. Around 4:00 pm EST. Just in time for Easter

Sunday talk shows to fellate *.

[freeforall]

43. Sunday, May 23, 2004 - Pakistan, announced 8am EDT

.

[slinkerwink]

44. October 9th, 2004

[JohnLocke]

46. Kick (nt)

[eyesroll]

47. Sunday, Oct. 17, 2004

The freshly defrosted corpse of Osama Bin Laden will have been dragged out of a cave/spider hole/safe house in Afghanistan, not far from where we thought he was three years ago, at 4:12 a.m. EST.

[spinbaby]

48. Monday, May 3, 2004

My reasoning is that, if Bin Laden is still alive (and he may very well not be), the Bushies have him bottled up somewhere and they're looking for a "capture" date. They can't do the October surprise for the same reason they couldn't plant WDMs--it's been talked about too much. May 3 is early enough so they can't be accused of springing an "October Surprise," it's a Monday for maximum news coverage, and it distracts from the one-year anniversary of the embarassing aircraft-carrier show.

On edit: 7:00 am, Pakistan.

[Rockholm]

50. July 28, 2004

Bin Laden will be found DEAD in Afghanistan. Cause of death will really be from a failed kidney, but the US government will say he died in a fierce shoot-out. Time...oh about 4:18pm EST. Just enough time to steal the thunder from Kerry's acceptance speech in Boston. Oh, to further complicate....news will be breaking a bit earlier that Bin Laden has been found, drag that on for a few hours, then have him killed in said shoot-out. That way, he takes up the ENTIRE day.

[BiggJawn]

51. Sunday, 31 October, 2004. Hallowe'en.

Trick or Treat, Mo-Fo's!

He will be caught straddling the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, in that region known as Talibanistan.

He will be caught shortly before noon local, in order to electrify the news bimbos in New York and Atlanta while Murka sucks down it's first cuppa the day.

And Chimp hopes he will be proclaimed Emperor for Life by popular acclaimation.

[Ishoutandscream]

53. I agree with all the Sunday predictions

I think the Bush team likes Sunday surprises.

I'll say Sunday, October 24, 2am est, on the Afghan, Pakistan border.

[soup]

54. Saturday March 20, 2004

Afghanistan

Breaking 4 p.m.

Iraq invasion anniversary tie-in
'justify' using 9/11 in political ads
can't let the enormous protests get any coverage
in time for the Sunday morning newspapers and talk shows

Too much too soon? maybe. :shrug:

[hang a left]

55. Back on page 1............Kick

[JohnLocke]

56. Thanks!

[Jacobin]

57. October 12, 2004

Afghanistan/Pakistan border in a no-man's land will be the story the junta gives although there will be speculation he has been relaxing in Crawford for the last couple of years.

Your tie breaker should have been the time of day, stated in GMT. I'll say 4:32 GMT.

[Bucky]

58. October 4, 2004 (my 41st b-day) - Pakistan, High Noon

High noon is teh discovery time, not the date of announcement

[fob]

59. July 29, 2004 - Last night of Dem Convention!

Remember, the conventions always give a big boost to the nominee, what better way to blunt that than to preempt the accecptance speech? No bounce, or a muted bounce out of the Dem convention IS an October Surprise, just early.

The time will be 5 minutes after the start of the acceptance speech of our Dem Nominee(At this point I will assume John Kerry), I don't know what time that is scheduled for so I hope that my explanation is acceptible.

As for the Country,
Can't be "found" in Pakistan, Musharaf will be toast, he has to be "found" in either Afghanistan or Iraq. Afghanistan is a safe bet, but with all the investigations swirling about and the lack of morals on their(repukes) part, I will say, that they will say, he was caught across the border in Iraq, thus simultaneuosly giving an Iraq/Al-queda connection

If my time above is not acceptible, please put me down for 9:11 pm EST, and as an added bonus, that time will be a bigger part of the story than the capture on some channels.

Summary: July 29, 2004, In Iraq, 9:11 PM EST with the hammer


EDIT: Clarify please, Is the Time, the time the announcement is made or the time he was captured? We may not know the latter and if it's the former, WHO is the official announcing source? Because there are already reports of his capture by the Iranians(?) Is CNN the source?

[Sparkle]

60. Tuesday, August 24, 2004

Primary tiebreaker: outskirts of Dhamar, Yemen

Secondary tiebreaker: 9:57a.m.(est)

[pintobean]

61. Thursday, April 1, 2004 - Pakistan 9:22 pm

[ChavezSpeakstheTruth]

62. Saturday, October 16, 2004

Afghanistan will be the country and it will happen at approximately 5:30 AM.

[tom_paine]

63. June 28th, 2004

Which will run it nicely with the 4th of July (why do we celebrate Independence Day when the Republic is dying and we are under the boot of a King George again?).

Which will keep 'em bumped until August or September, when Ronnie Raygun conveniently "shuffles off the mortal coil" just as the bump is returning to Earth.

(would they be cyncial enough to whack Raygun during the Dmeocratic Conevntion? no level of hubris is beyond the Imperial Family)

[ElementaryPenguin]

64. October 31st - Halloween! BFEE's favorite holiday!

:puke:

[Dunedain]

66. Saturday, September 11th, 2004

Watergate hotel, room 911, Washington DC 8:46:26 am EST

They will think the irony is so clever, and more proof of the 'divinity' of the boy kings abomination, I mean maladministration, err....administration.

[OneTwentyoNine]

74. Hey that might work,early but possible...

It could be:

REMEMBER 9/11 01 AND 04!!!!!!!

[PATRICK]

67. I can't remember the dates but I suspect

with elegant timing(which btw I believe they can't do) it would be during Kerry's acceptance speech at the Convention or some time between then and the announcement of the "bounce"- just before the GOP Convention if they have no other faux cause to get excited about.

I know the pool rules so put me down to the Friday afternoon after Kerry's acceptance speech: 3:00 PM for the official statement. Time tenough to bowl over the evening news uncritically, jawbone the Market over the weekend and roil the polls uncritically.

(on edit). The reason I may be wrong is because things never go according to plan and that is why it is so hard to expose a setup. So I blame Bush if I lose.

[JohnLocke]

68. Kick

[sleepyhead]

69. Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Pakistan. 4:15 pm EST.

[hang a left]

70. get back over there.........kick

[Zinfandel]

71. From what I see, read and feel...they indeed already got him.

and they are going to use it at the best time for their media blitz the worst time for Democrats.

[tobius]

72. wednesday, april 14th, 2004

pakistan 7:14 pm EST

[JohnLocke]

73. Kick (nt)

[JohnLocke]

75. Kick (nt)

[fluffyslayer]

76. Sunday, October 24, 2004

Nation: Afghanistan
Time: 12:04 AM

[tinrobot]

77. July 28, 2004

Found in: Pakistan
Time: 4:30 PM EST

In order to avoid an October surprise, they will instead pull him out in the middle of the Democratic convention, thus shifting the spotlight away from Kerry's acceptance speech.

[mot78]

78. October 6th 2004

Can't give an exact time, but it will be when it's October 7th in Pakistan/Afghanistan, because that will make it the 3-year anniversary of when we first striked Afghanistan (October 7th 2001 US time). He will be captured in a pro-Taliban town in the tribal areas of Pakisan. * will be, or already is, keeping an eye on him, waiting for the right time to capture him. If a Bin Laden bounce doesn't occur or has already worn out, a Reagan death, new faux job indicators, or something helping him will happen in Iraq, will give him his needed bounce.

[politick]

79. June 6, 2004

in Pakistan, at 2:33PM

[Baconfoot]

80. Sunday, August 29th 2004, Yemen, 9:00AM EST n/t

[JohnLocke]

81. Kick (nt)

[citizen snips]

82. June 5, 2004.

Nation: Pakistan
Time: 3:30 PM.

[LDS Jock]

83. October 15, 2004

Beginning of Ramadan. 10:00am EST. Enough time to promote the daylights out of it before the election, but not enough time for the impact to wear off.

Please don't let me be right and not have him before the election.

[JohnLocke]

84. Welcome to DU, ldsjocktx!!

:toast: :yourock: :toast: :yourock: :toast:

Edit: spelling.

[citizen snips]

85. kick.

[JohnLocke]

86. Thanks!

:hi:

[graywarrior]

88. June 20, 2004, 5:00 am ,EST, Afganistan

Just when news of Peak Oil becomes reality to middle America.

[JohnLocke]

92. Kick

[JohnLocke]

114. Kick (nt).

[struggle4progress]

89. 26 October 12:00 EST

location: near the Syrian/Iranian border

found? 26 August - "sources say: know where he is"
found? 2 September - "will not confirm or deny"
lost? 9 September - "have faith: making progress"
trapped 21 September - "we've pinned him down"
besieged 5 October - "terrain is rough - we're closing in"
"captured" 19 October (for all purposes) "fierce fighting - but he can't escape "
killed 26 October - "found dead"
confused 27 October - "is it really Osama?"
killed! 28 October - "DNA evidence confirms"
heightened alert 9 November - "reprisals for the death of OBL"
revisions 16 November - "apparently died during September attacks"

[DS1]

90. September 10th

I claimed this days ago in another thread.

[JM]

91. Monday, July 12, 2004

6AM EST
Afghanistan

This kind of stuff only happens when I am at the beach on vacation. So far, we have been at the beach for the Olympic Park bombing, JFK Jr. crash, TWA 800, and something else I can't recall. It will be a Monday since Monday is a slow news day.

JM

[BlueStateGirl]

93. september 22, 2004 Barikot Afganistan. 215 PM ETS

[EV1Ltimm]

94. Friday, August 27th 2004

Outside Kabul, Afghanistan
7 p.m. EST

of course, the news will be broadcast the following sunday morning.

[DebJ]

96. Thursday, August 12, 2004 12 noon est Pakistan but can I change this

after I think about it some more?
I chose 8/12 because I believe this is the feast of the Ascencion
(sorry can't spell that).
By the way, I correctly predicted last January the date we would attack Iraq. I only told my fiance and friends though, didn't know about DU then. The ironic part for me was that I based my guess on my conspiracy friend's theories, but I got the date right and he was way off! My 8/12 date uses the same 'logic'...so actually I'd like to be wrong! But this date also comes after the Dem convention hype is out of the media (I'm sure they won't give us very long anyway), and before the Repub convention.

[nwstrn]

97. Friday, October 1, 2004

Pakistan
2:00 a.m. eastern

Trumping final jobs report before election

[JohnLocke]

98. Kick (nt)

[JohnLocke]

99. Kick (nt)

[JohnLocke]

103. Kick (nt)

[JohnLocke]

116. Kick (nt).

[JohnLocke]

118. Kick (nt).

[JohnLocke]

121. Kick (nt).

[JPace]

100. July 17, 2004 10:00 AM

they will announce he is dead.
They will never get him alive.

[hang a left]

101. Aaah.........can I change my date?

I think it might be sooner than I originally posted.

[JohnLocke]

102. Sure, post a reply to your original (nt).

[John_H]

104. Wed July 21, 10:01 AM

[JohnLocke]

105. Kick (nt).

[Jacobin]

106. kick

:kick:

[JohnLocke]

108. Thanks (nt).

[taughtmepatience]

109. Wed Aug 18

Location: Afghanistan
Time: 1039am Pacific

Bushie wants to break up the dog days of summer but do it before the NFL football season begins and Americans ignore any real "news".

[Rockholm]

110. Can I Post A Second Date? 1/20/05....

January 20, 2005. Inauguration Day for Kerry. Time 9:11am
The truth is, if * wins (cough, spit, gag, gack) then I fully expect Osama to be wheeled out on Inauguration Day, just for total, absolute, over-the-top propaganda. Hey, I am sure we all remember what was happening with the the Iran hostages when Reagan was being inaugurated.

[JohnLocke]

111. Kick (nt).

[JohnLocke]

112. Kick (nt).

[JohnLocke]

113. Kick (nt).

[sweetheart]

115. June 1, 2015

He is discovered launching a global nuclear war, and 3 billion
people are dead. His name is forgotten in that travesty, except
in myth. He died in the great fire of allah.

[Paradise]

117. Monday, October 11, 2004

Afghanistan
8:45 A.M. Eastern Time

[The Animator]

119. September 11, 2004

It will play out like a Jack Ryan novel.

Bin Laden will travel to New York City to personally oversee the Destruction of the Brooklyn Bridge. However his men will be thwarted by the co-owners of Planet Hollywood, led by Govenator Arnold Schwartzenegger. Osama will be killed in hand to hand combat atop one of the bridge spires, by non-other than W. himself. A Fox News copter will catch the entire battle, and Osama's fall to the icy water below.

Unfortunatley VP Dick Cheney will suffer a fatal heart attack during excitement. People start hearing rumors of a Bush/Schwartzenegger ticket...

[JohnLocke]

120. kick (nt)

[hang a left]

122. I don't understand why noone wants to play.

:-{

[mrgorth]

123. July 25th 7:00pm EST

in Afghanistan. It's not too close to November to look rigged. We will wake up to it as Fresh news on a Monday morning and the dems will have to hold the entire convention on the backdrop of the capture making it look like we're somehow not happy about it.

Rove can still have the Saddam trial and "find" WMDs in Iraq in September and October. How you beat that kind of evil I have no idea.

[AspenRose]

124. Thursday, September 16, 2004, Pakistan, 2 pm Mountain Time, Dead

[Catherine Vincent]

125. Friday, April 9, 2004

He will be found in Somalia at 4:54am est

[Plaid Adder]

126. Never.

C ya,

The Plaid Adder

[hang a left]

127. kick

[JohnLocke]

128. Thanks a lot!

:yourock:

[Earth_First]

129. September 2, 2004

...right SMACK in the middle of the RNC

That'll give the neoconservatives an arena to gather collectively for pats on back a mere blocks from the WTC site, AND will allow for two full months of propaganda to spew from the Rove machine...

[Kathy in Cambridge]

130. Sunday, August 15th 7 AM EST at a 'safe house' in Pakistan

Right before the Repuke Convention.

[Eureka]

131. 01 Nov 2004

in Yemen, at about midday, UTC, just for fun

[Wickerman]

132. June 30th,

June 30th, 2004

9:23 EST for the morning news cycle. Maximum spin for the weekend, leads to a 4th of (Bush*) July to end all 4ths. Bush* the hero. :puke:

[Neshanic]

133. Wednesday, August, 25, 2004 Syria, 2:30am Eastern Standard