Osama Caught? Why I think so...Somebody is betting Big that he is...

[masmdu]

There is a place called Tradesport.com where you can trade futures on world events.

Last night the Futures contract that Osama will be captured/killed SPIKED



It recently traded as high as 85.0 (i.e. someone thought there was an 85% chance Bin Laden would be captured by the end of the month). There's no way this effect could just be the result of the recent stories about our planned spring offensive against Bin Laden. These stories have been around for weeks, and the price has been steady between 10 and 20 for a while now. My guess is that some traders had inside information on some kind of close call that happened last night.

Osama Futures:

https://www.tradesports.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=87745&z=1078501677828

[Bucky]

1. stock bubble

There's no way this effect could just be the result of the recent stories about our planned spring offensive against Bin Laden

Actually this is certainly a plausible explanation. It seems to be a typical stock bubble. And keep in mind that this make-believe stock market is totally unregulated. The crashes and spikes wouldn't be like the '87 or the '29 crashes. They would behave like the South Seas Bubble of the 18th century, which saw 90% devaluations in the most lucrative stocks.

[masmdu]

3. ummm...futures, not stocks...These are time sensitive, like options.

This is a price spike...not a conintually increasing price as in the greater fool theory of stock mkt bubbles...you're comparing apples and monkey wrenches.

[DuctapeFatwa]

2. I think it's because of this

http://dissidentvoice.org/Mar04/Fatwa0301.htm

[Az]

4. Is this the remnants of the DARPA stockmarket gambit

Thought they shut this thing down?

[jokerman93]

5. Shut down? Yes.

However they said (I don't remember the quote, but it was Rumsfeld.) That it was simply a matter of repackaging the program somewhere else.

[KoKo]

7. Yes, they did "repackage." I heard the guy doing it promoting on CNBC

about a month after the Administration shut it down when the backlash appeared. But the "Dude" (a faux bald metrosexual in silk suit) was on CNBC promoting it. He had some other interesting sites for betting also on world political disasters. It was disgusting, imho.

[masmdu]

6. No...Not the same thing...this is primarily a sports betting place that

happens to cover politics and some world events as well.

[KoKo]

8. masmdu, I think your site is he same one I mentioned. See my post above.

Not criticizing you about this. You're free to bet where you want to, and it is a very interesting post. Thanks for putting it up, here because I always wondered what happened to it.