2004 Collected Polling Data!

[mb7588a]

I got this polling data through email today. The Hotline is
the source. It looks like all good news so far in some of the
key states. Sorry if any of the spacing is bad. I had to take
out the margin of error on all of them so that the graph
wouldn't get jumbled here (MoE ranges between 3 and 5.7% only
that one is above 5, all others below 4.9.. most around 3.5
area). PLEASE, feel free to add data to this! I'd like to see
a WV, another PA, OH, AZ, FL and NY poll. Thanks!



       ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS: (270 needed to win)

__LEADS OUTSIDE Margin of Error__
          STATES    Electoral Votes 
Kerry         7           110       
Bush          3            45      

__ALL STATES Leads___
          STATES    Electoral Votes
Kerry       13            203
Bush         6             74



        REPUTABLE STATE POLLS

STATE    BUSH  KERRY  POLL                        DATE 
  
CA (55)   41% ++53%   Field Poll                 2/18-22 
          40  ++53    Los Angeles Times          2/18-22  
FL (27)   43   +49    *Schroth and Assocs.(D)    3/3-4    
                      *the polling co. (R)
IA (7)    42   +49    Register/Selzer & Co.      2/7-11  
IL (21)   36  ++54    Research 2000              3/1-3    
IN (11)  +49    42    Garin-Hart-Yang (D)        2/17-19  
KY (8)  ++55    38    Louisville Courier-Journal 1/30-2/4 
MA (12)   28  ++59    *RKM Research and Comm.    2/27-28 
MD (10)   38  ++51    Gonzales Research          2/3-8    
MD (10)   38  ++47    *Mason Dixon               2/23-25  
ME (4)    38  ++51    *Strategic Marketing Svcs. 2/28-3/3 
MI (17)   40   +46    Mitchell Research          2/26-3/1 
MN (10)   41   +43    Mason Dixon                1/26-28  
MO (11)   46   +49    Decision Research (D)      2/14-19  
NH (4)    38  ++53    Univ. of NH                2/4-12   
OK (7)   +50    40    Wilson Research Strategies 2/16-19  
PA (21)   46   +47    Franklin & Marshall        2/19-22  
RI (4)    31  ++53    Brown Univ.                2/7-9    
SD (3)  ++50    39    Mason Dixon                2/5-7    
TN (11)  +48    44    Middle TN State Univ.      2/16-28 
TX (34) ++54    36    Scripps Howard TX Poll     2/12-3/3

  (+ indicates lead inside the MoE, ++ a lead outside)

[mb7588a]

1. What is it about Indiana?

They've been in the red, so to speak, the last couple elections... what is so red about them?

[coloradodem2005]

2. I just don't know.

My grandma lives on the east side of Terre Haute and it has a very conservative vibe to it. I don't get how a state can be that conservative in an area of liberal and swing states.

[Indiana_Dem]

7. They've been red since 1964. (since I was born!)

I've lived here my whole life except for 2 years after high school. I feel like the lone Democrat! I just hate it!! I would love more than ever to see us turn blue!! I would be dancing in the streets!!!! This is just a very conservative state. It's history reveals some of the largest KKK used to be here. This state is probably just as bad if not worse than any state in the south except in areas where there are colleges like Bloomington, Lafayette, and up north around Mishawaka and Gary near the steel mills. All the suburbanites from Chicago live around the Merrillville area and are probably conservative uppermiddle class. I'm just guessing. The rest is allllll corn fields and farming and church-going folk. Ft. Wayne is very conservative and religious. Indianapolis has all the corporations and north in the Carmel suburb it is very wealthy.

[kysrsoze]

23. Indiana is a sewer (apologies to those in NW Indiana) - nice story

A coworker of mine who lives around Merrillville was bringing his kids back from Disney World and stopped in a southern IN town. They got out of the car to get some McDonald's and there were people walking the block with signs saying, "Fags must die!" and other such niceties. He whisked his kids back into the car just as a fight broke out between the picketers and some people walking by.

One of my best friends is Indian. His family lives in Louisville and he tries not to stop on the way.

Nice. :eyes:

[Lexingtonian]

9. it's a rural state

A relatively small proportion of its population lives in urban areas- it's a lot of medium and small towns that are seriously Bible Belt. Indianapolis is the largest city, with 500,000 people out of the 7 million.

Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan balance out their rural/culturally rural Bible Belt voters with massive amounts of voters in cities along the Lakes.

[alcuno]

18. It's a Chicago complex.

[ButterflyBlood]

20. doesn't have any major cities to balance out the rurals

it's got Indianapolis, but that's rather conservative for a major city, a lot closer to Cincinnati than Cleveland, Detroit or Chicago that help out with Ohio, Michigan an Illinois. The only truly liberal parts of the state are the Chicago suburbs in the northwest and Bloomington, the rest of it is full of freepers.

[mb7588a]

3. Arizona

Bush Kerry Arizona State University 2/19-22 4%MoE
44% 46%

52% 44% SURVEY USA 2/18-19 4.3%MoE

[mb7588a]

4. Florida

Bush Kerry St. Petersburgh Times 3/3-4 3.5% MoE
43% 49%

Lead is outside MoE! Add 27 to the Kerry total, for 137 outside the margin, 230 total.

That's the most recent Florida data... and Florida is.. of course.. suspect.

[mb7588a]

5. Pennsylvania

Too close to call either way, imo.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/2004/PAPoll.htm#pres

[mb7588a]

6. NY, OH, WV = nothing recent :( n/t...

[rockymountaindem]

8. I'm worried about MN and PA

Those don't look too solid.

[Lindacooks]

19. Here's a bright spot in Minnesota

in my small town, there were 900 Democrats at the precinct caucuses on Super Tuesday. There were 80 Republicans at their caucus. Maybe, just maybe, this state is going to wake up.

[ButterflyBlood]

22. keep this in mind

undecideds usually break 2:1 agaist the incumbent. also that MN poll is pretty old, before Kerry campaigned here as part of Super Tuesday. Since then his numbers have gone up nationwide and undoubtably here, and *'s have been dropping. I heard a February poll put him at 40% approval here! We're holding guard.

[Dob Bole]

10. wow...what happened to Kentucky?

Didn't Clinton win Kentucky handily? And Pennsylvania is actually going to be close...

[mb7588a]

12. That's an old poll... It might get closer than that...nt

[Lexingtonian]

11. Pennsylvania

http://www.surveyusa.com/currentelectionpolls.html

President, Head-to-Head, PA 3/11/2004
Kerry (D) 49%
Bush (R) 47%
Undecided 4%
Data Collected 3/8/04 - 3/10/04
Geography State of Pennsylvania
Sample Population 802 Registered Voters
Margin of Error 3.5%
Client
KDKA-TV Pittsburgh
WCAU-TV Philadelphia
WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre

Kerry is campaigning there tomorrow and in Illinois. PA and NJ are the major Democratic states with the latest primaries- PA on April 27 (includes the Spector-Toomey showdown), NJ around June 8.

[BabsSong]

13. I've been waiting for this--and I don't like it

Damn. We won IA, WIS, Michigan and Pennsylvania by less than 5% and they still look tight--one fart and they're Bush. It blows my mind--all our candidates talk about how these midwest states have been gutted. How goddamn stupid can they be!! Then there was OH, TN, etc. that they won by less than 5% and again, things are either 'forgetaboutit' or razor thin. So much is going to depend on the part of the governor in these states. Minnesota and Missouri aren't good either. Bush won Missouri with less than 5% but it's still close even though swung a bit the other way. Minnesota freaks me out. I truly was hoping before Bush let lose with all his dough that these states had opened up wide for Kerry because of all the lost jobs, lost farms, etc. Again, I repeat and repeat and repeat: how goddamn stupid can these people be!!!!!!!!! We have to retain those we won in '00 which are: Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, (did we win Minnesota?), Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Oregon and Washington, along with the ones we won solidly. Then we only need to add OH or MO or FL, etc. But, damn I don't like the looks of those states we narrowly one. His ads are enough to gain 4-5% points and take the whole guts out of our possibilities.

[elperromagico]

15. As late as July 2000, Bush was winning

Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Oregon, New Mexico, and Minnesota were all considered too close to call.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/POLLS/2000/pe2000poll0700.html

Things could go either way, unfortunately, but all of those states seem to be leaning our way this time.

[elperromagico]

14. Comparison of your poll figures with the 2000 general election figures.

            	2004                    2000
STATE    	BUSH  	KERRY     	BUSH	GORE
  
CA (55)   	41% 	++53%   	42%	53%
FL (27)   	43   	+49       	49	49
IA (7)    	42   	+49    		48	49
IL (21)   	36  	++54       	43	55
IN (11)  	+49    	42    		57	41
KY (8)  	++55    38    		57	41
MA (12)   	28 	++59    	33	60
MD (10)   	38  	++51    	40	57
ME (4)    	38  	++51    	44	49
MI (17)   	40   	+46     	46	51
MN (10)   	41   	+43     	46	48
MO (11)   	46   	+49     	50      47
NH (4)    	38  	++53      	48	47
OK (7)   	+50    	40    		60	38
PA (21)   	46   	+47    		46	51
RI (4)    	31  	++53     	32	61
SD (3)  	++50    39     		60	38
TN (11)  	+48    	44    		51	47
TX (34) 	++54    36    		59	38

[mb7588a]

16. ack.

Florida and Missouri are the only real deviations so far... very very very interesting.

thanks for doing that. very helpful.

[lancdem]

25. N.H. is a major deviation

Bush narrowly won it in 2000, and now he trails by major double digits.

[jeanmarc]

17. New Hampshire is Kerry?

Maybe I'm clueless, but isn't this a Republican haven?

[ButterflyBlood]

21. it's kind of the opposite of Arkansas, Louisiana or even Georgia

lots of people are still traditionally Republican on the party registration level but a lot further to the left of the national party. they vote Republican on local races and usually statewide races, but are pretty split on the presidential race. Clinton carried it twice and * won it by less than 2 points in 2000. It's Kerry's backyard, so my bet is he wins it easily.

[Poiuyt]

24. More Electoral Surveys

here are some other sites that I monitor:

http://www.censeoresearch.com/2004pres.htm
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php
http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

Boy, it would really suck if we won the popular vote and lost the Electoral College again.