Check out these fascinating polling trends from past elections from Gallup

[lancdem]

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.asp?ci=1252

You can see other decades on the left. Did anyone here realize Reagan actually trailed for much of 1980 vs. Carter? And Clinton didn't pull ahead of Poppy until June/July 1992. The point I'm trying to make is, how historically rare it is for Kerry to even be ahead in some polls at this point. It's going to be a tough election, but history does give some interesting perspective, and frankly, a lot of encouragement!

[Beetwasher]

1. Yes, Bush is in a Very Precarious Position

He's in uncharted territory being so far behind at this stage of the game...It's VERY bad news for Bush. I love the way his campaign tries to spin it by saying "Oh we expected to be neck in neck or even behind all through the summer." What bullshit. What on earth would make them expect that? Certainly not historical trends.

It's also very intersting that I've not seen this reported anywhere. This is very unusual for an incumbent to be in this position and yet no one in the mainstream points it out.

[wryter2000]

2. Besides

In some polls, it isn't even neck and neck. Kerry's substantially ahead.

[Beetwasher]

3. And Bush's Trend is still DOWNWARD

He's still dropping in every poll. He hasn't bottomed out yet...

[TruthIsAll]

11. Here are Bush's monthly poll numbers....

In the 30 months since 9/11, his average job approval numbers have risen only TWICE - and fallen 28 times.


1Newsweek 2Fox 3CNN 4Pew 5Harris 6CBS 7ABC 8Time 9NBC 10AP 11Zogby

.......1...2...3...4...5...6...7..8..9..10..11..Avg

2001
Feb 52 55 57 53 na 53 55 52 na na 57 ...54.3
Mar 55 56 63 56 56 53 58 55 57 na 53 ...56.2
Apr 57 63 59 53 49 60 63 na 56 na 52 ...56.9
May 57 59 53 50 59 56 55 52 na na 52 ...54.8
Jun na 59 55 51 50 57 na na 50 na 51 ...53.3
Jul na 56 52 52 56 na 59 55 na na 47 ...53.9
Aug na 55 51 50 52 53 55 na na na 50 ...52.3
Sep 86 81 87 80 na na 86 84 82 na 82 ...83.5 TriFecta
Oct 84 80 na 84 88 89 92 89 na na 78 ...85.5
Nov 85 84 87 84 86 87 89 87 88 na na ...86.3
Dec 82 86 86 na 82 85 89 82 85 na 81 ...84.2

2002
Jan na 83 84 80 79 86 86 77 82 77 80 ...81.4
Feb 83 81 82 78 79 84 83 na na na 74 ...80.5
Mar 74 80 81 na 77 82 82 75 na 75 74 ...77.8
Apr 71 79 76 74 75 78 79 75 74 72 69 ...74.7
May 73 72 77 na 74 76 78 72 75 71 70 ...73.8
Jun 70 74 70 70 70 71 77 70 69 na 69 ...71.0
Jul 68 70 76 67 62 70 72 70 67 67 62 ...68.3
Aug 61 69 68 60 63 65 69 na na 65 na ...65.0
Sep 70 66 66 63 68 66 69 65 64 65 na ...66.2
Oct 61 65 67 na 64 66 67 61 63 63 63 ...64.0
Nov 60 68 63 61 65 63 67 64 na na na ...63.9
Dec na 65 64 61 64 61 66 55 na 64 64 ...62.7

2003
Jan 56 63 63 58 na 65 59 53 62 64 na ...60.3
Feb 61 57 61 54 52 59 64 62 54 58 63 ...58.6
Mar 53 60 57 55 na 56 62 54 61 57 62 ...57.7
Apr 71 71 70 67 70 68 71 62 62 51 54 ...65.2 Shock & Awe
May 65 65 69 65 na 67 71 63 71 64 61 ...66.1
Jun 61 66 64 60 61 67 68 na 62 na 58 ...63.0
Jul 55 60 62 58 na 66 59 55 na 60 53 ...58.7
Aug 53 59 60 56 57 60 59 na 56 58 52 ...57.0
Sep 52 58 52 55 na 55 56 52 na 52 45 ...53.0
Oct 51 52 55 50 59 52 54 na 49 51 49 ...52.2
Nov 52 52 54 50 na 54 56 52 51 52 48 ...52.1
Dec 54 52 63 57 50 60 59 54 58 59 53 ...56.3 Saddam Capture

2004
Jan 50 58 60 56 na 50 58 54 54 56 49 ...54.5
Feb 48 48 51 48 51 50 50 54 na 47 na ...49.7
Mar na 48 na na na 47 50 na 50 48 na ...48.6

[lancdem]

4. There was an article on the Gallup Web site

a few weeks ago saying Bush is the only incumbent other than Gerald Ford to be behind at this point, and he lost. I'm not sure that has been picked up by the mainstream media. BTW, good point about that spin. There's no way in hell they expected to be tied or eight months before the election. Bank on it.

[starroute]

7. What about Truman?

I know he was in enough trouble early in 1948 that some Democrats were starting a Draft Eisenhower movement. But was Truman actually behind at that point, or still just a hairsbreath ahead?

In any event, Truman knew how to fight back -- he took his case to the people, criss-crossed the country by train, and blamed the "do-nothing" Republican Congress. No way could Bush do any of that.

[NWHarkness]

5. It's not just rare, it's virtually unprecedented.

[Jacobin]

6. Very encouraging!!

[Jack from Charlotte]

8. When an incumbent is up for reelectrion.........

ALWAYS, ALWAYS ALWAYS............. the main consideration is that the election is a referendum on the incumbents record during his presidency.

Look back to Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, The Elected Bush and Clinton......

For Ford......Nixon connection was the problem. Carter.... Way high interest rates, gas lines and Iran problem..... Reagan... good economy and new confidence. Elected Bush..... weak economy, Clinton..... great everything except Repub yelling scandal every 5 seconds.

All Kerry has to do is keep pointing to AWOL's record and show himself to be a viable candidate. The election is about the Moron administration record.

[snippy]

10. I agree that the election will be a referendum on Bush.

Since 9/11 Bush's approval rating has been in a steady down trend with the occasional bounce. Bush's decline in the polls is nothing other than the American people looking at and listening to Bush and realizing that he is an incompetent liar. Day by day and voter by voter, Bush himself is convincing the American people that he should not be president. If the trend since 9/11 continues, Bush will lose badly. If the trend reverses soon enough and strongly enough, Bush will win easily.

Between now and November Bush will continue to lie at every opportunity about every subject on which he speaks. Between now and November, Bush will continue to demonstrate his incompetence. Between now and November Bush will continue to demonstrate his Fecal Midas Touch. Bush probably can benefit only from what happens to the economy and Iraq between now and November. Unless another issue arises between now and November, the economy must improve and Iraq can not get too much worse for Bush to win.

Just look at the charts at this site. They illustrate the effect Bush is having on the American people. http://www.radiofreemonkey.com:8080/charts/

FIRE THE LIAR

[Lexingtonian]

9. Don't forget that Bush lost the 2000 election

And no U.S. Pres installed with a minority of the votes has ever been elected the next time around.