Another republican thinking georgie's* goose is cooked

[catmandu57]

Sunday afternoon, we had dinner with friends of ours in OP Ks, it's very affluent and heavily republican. During dinner the conversation turned to politics, and, my friend said georgie* is done, he'll never be reelected.

Now, he is a soft republican, his wife is strongly democratic, so either she'll get his vote switched or he'll stay home come November. He seems to think that if Kerry wins we'll have inflation coming back, I told him that's already set in motion.

Whether we like it or not, inflation is just around the corner, starting with rising fuel prices, that is going to raise the price of everything, come November we'll be lucky if georgie's* scorched earth policy hasn't got us into double digit inflation.

If the moron* is getting cracks like this in his voting block how much longer before the base crumbles?

[eileen from OH]

1. High interest rates are also around the corner

We refinanced a few months ago not only to get a lower rate, but also to get a fixed rate. If you haven't already, now's the time.

eileen from OH

[tjwash]

12. Good.

Low interest rates on mortgages are nice, but my interest earning accounts have been killing me lately.

[mopaul]

2. they're coming out of their hypnosis

i too know some affluent bush supporters who are now less than thrilled and almost resigned to his ouster this november. i'm encouraged by their turnaround, but still puzzled as to why they ever supported him in the first place. clinton fatigue i suppose, and extreme hatred of hilary, and all things Democratic.

these types really hate to admit defeat or weakness, and the ones who AREN'T snapping out of their hypnosis worry me even more. they'd support bush if he ate babies for breakfast.

but i am encouraged by the few who are snapping out of it.

[KittyWampus]

3. The Survival Instinct Is Kicking In

That little Reptilian part of our brain that focuses on Survival.

[Arkana]

11. Yeah, but...

the neocons and the fundies are eternally entranced. Don't count on them coming over to our side anytime soon.

[boobooday]

4. Return to Planet Earth

The people who briefly left Planet Earth to live on Planet Bush are beginning to return. "What has happened to our country while we were away following our STRONG, STEADY LEADER?" they ask, rubbing their eyes at the sight of all the destruction.

"What has happened to our schools, our roads, our health care system, our tax system? Where are our good jobs? Perhaps we should just close our eyes again, and return to Planet Bush!"

Just then, an alarm sounds on the ship. A calm, but authoritative female voice comes over the PA system, "PLANET BUSH SET TO SELF-DESTRUCT IN ONLY SIX MONTHS. PLEASE EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY!"

"Oh no," the passengers say, "I guess we'll just have to clean up this mess and stay here."


http://www.wgoeshome.com

[zbdent]

7. If Kerry wins in a Popular AND Electoral landslide, will we see

a bunch of Repukes with their shoes off and purple blankets covering their bodies, expecting the mother ship to cart them off?

[Malva Zebrina]

10. They don't really ask that

hard core supporters ask why we don't invade Iran and Syria , slaughter their civilians by the thousands to establish "peace" in the area.

[chimpymustgo]

5. Two of my rich Rethug friends just confessed: * is a moron.

They sent $4000 to Kerry.

[ProfessorGAC]

6. What's The Basis of Your Inflation Conclusion?

I don't see anything in the data that indicates inflation is a fait accompli. How did you arrive at that conclusion? (Serious question, not a knock.)
The Professor

[supernova]

8. Because of rising gas prices

was his theory, since everything in someway depends upon the energy to produce/distribute it. Last time I checked oil was hanging out about $35/barrel. Is it higher now?

Could also be because of the falling value of the dollar against the Euro.

Is this is a valid theory? I'm not an economist.

[ProfessorGAC]

9. It's Valid, Sure, But Not Convincing

Oil prices have stabilized, to answer your question. They might still go up a bit, but not at the rate they've been jumping.

The falling dollar thing is actually possible. That would mean that fewer goods would be imported, (the dollar is worth less so everything costs more), so those dollars would be spent on domestic goods already here. More dollars, fewer goods, means higher prices. But, the impact is smaller than most think since imports are only a 6% negative number within GDP. So, a change of 10% in the dollar's value against the euro has a maximum 0.6% affect on price inflation. If imports fall 20% because of that exchange deficiency, the actually inflationary effect falls to 0.12%. Not really that substantial.

The energy thing is valid since it does cost something in energy to make, build, or do anything of commercial value. But, again, it's a matter of percentages. The actual energy costs of manufactured goods, both direct and indirect through overhead absorption is only typically 3 - 4% of the cost. That results in only 1.5 - 2% of the retail price. If that goes up 20%, the inflationary pressure is only 0.3 - 0.4%.

In the 70's, when the oil embargo caused that inflationary effect, the prices went up almost 100% in 5 months, and there was a supply deficiency. So, the actual cost of energy more than doubled. At that point, the economy was churning at a modest growth rate with just a few stagnatory influences. When energy prices shot up that dramatically, the combination of price inflation, and consumer shock caused monetary inflation. The Ford administration printed new money to increase the supply (the completely wrong thing to do) and it exacerbated the situation.

So, it was huge energy price increases followed by an antithetical response that resulted in the high inflation of the late 70's. The two periods (then & now) are not parallel.
The Professor

[catmandu57]

13. Rising energy costs was what I was basing myself on

I can't begin to come anywhere near your knowledge of econamics, in a laymens view it seems to me that so much is based on energy consumption.
I live deep in the heart of farm country, the more a farmer has to spend to produce and transport their crops cuts deeply into any profit they may realize. Many of these guys are living on the margin to begin with, both they, and, their spouse must have an outside source of income just to keep afloat.

It seems to me that so much is based on affordable energy, what manufacturing we still have is heavily dependent on oil, the dollars value is falling, I read in another thread that OPEC is cutting production come April increasing fuel costs. To me, it just seem to be adding two and two to get four.

I believe many people will start getting pinched going to fill up, they'll see more and more of their dollars going into the gas tank, there was also a thread on the rising costs of fuel forcing some truckers into halting their activity. I believe I saw this first hand Sunday night we did'nt leave unti late that night, and trucks rule the interstate at night. In the eighty miles we were on the hyway two trucks passed us, only two.

In the past I could have counted at least two dozen or more, anyway I'm basing my hypothesis on rising energy costs= inflation. I also believe that as we approach the election, if there is a sense of desparation in the repug camp, they will do anything to sabotage Kerry's administration.
I hope I'm wrong professor.