State Polls are Showing a Real Hand to Hand Combat Race

[BabsSong]

This weekend a poster shared with us the recent polls in quite a number of states (not all-- but containing many of those battleground states). There's good news but it's not quite all hoped for. Here's the gist of it (these polls--of various orgin--were taken from mid-Feb. to present during the time Dems were getting a lot of press:

In states like Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania and several others that we won with less than 5% of the vote, we still are ahead. BUT, it's still the same damn 5% or less spread. This shocked me because of all the job loss and bad economic news in those areas. I assumed that we might have piled on another 5% points or more and been pulling a good 10% ahead of Bush.

In states like Missouri, Florida and Ohio (I think Ohio--99% sure) where Bush won by 5% or less, the margin is still that 5% or less BUT this time WE are ahead of them. That means we gained 5-10 points.

Dissappointments were some other Red by 5% or less states like Kentucky, Tennessee, W. Virginia. Some of those saw increase support for Bush.

Two small states were good news: Maine was a 5% or less state and is now 38-52ish for Kerry. And New Hampshire that was Bush's is now Kerry by the same 38-52ish margin as Maine.

States not covered (and would have loved to know) was New Mexico, Oregon and Washington where we won by less than 5%.

Bottom line: I know we like to cheer about republicans who are turning against Bush; but it depends on what state they are turning in. Those solid red and solid blue states remain with the same spreads. Thus if a repuke is turning there, it has no effect on this election. We can see that just one breaking of wind and those states that will determine this could easily slip into the opposite column. This is going to be a bloodbath to the finish. I cannot understand why so many of those previously close states are still close when so many of them have received the full fist of Bush's economy in the face. Go figure.

[lancdem]

1. Do you any results from W.Va.?

That's one state I'm curious about. BTW, I have read that Kerry is doing about the same as Gore in the blue states (not better) but is actually doing much better than Gore in the purple states (ones where Gore or Bush won by 5 percent or less). Just from what you posted, Kerry is doing better than Gore in N.H., Mo., Fla. and Ohio. If he wins a couple of those states (or just Ohio or Fla. alone) and keeps the states Gore won, he wins. (Also, I thought Kerry's lead in Mich. and Iowa was more than 5 points.)

Keep in mind it's very, very hard to beat an incumbent president. For it to be this competitive this early is encouraging news.

[BabsSong]

3. lanc...if I remember correct (like I indicated)

..West Virginia was still favoring Bush and I believe was a state where he's grown a bit stronger. That's what disappointed me along with Kentucky and TN because I thought maybe we could squeak out one of those states. And, like I said, I was disappointed in Iowa, Michigan etc. and thought we would be much further ahead. These polls were taken as all the money the Dems had were being thrown around in those states of the primaries. It's like not a dime of it budged one voter. That worries me.

[lancdem]

5. I searched DU and couldn't find any recent W.Va. poll

BTW, on another very recent thread where someone posted state results, Kerry was ahead in Iowa by 7 points and in Michigan by 6, and only trailed in Tennesse by 4. Are you referring to other polls?

[Arkana]

8. WV

Yeah, I would think West Virginia would be behind Kerry this time. And you're right, it's real hard to beat an incumbent president, and it'll be even harder if he somehow, by some stretch of the imagination, catches or kills bin Laden.

[wabeewoman]

2. Judging by the caucus

turnout, I think Washington will go democratic.We had 5 times normal turnout(according to state chair) and got front page news. I haven't heard if the repugs have had their caucus. Our jobless rate is in the top 5 in the nation. I was listening to a radio show in a very republican county and they had a call in 'vote' and took the first 50 'voters.' The surprise was bush had 29 and Kerry 21. Normally I'd expect to see 45 and 5 or such as it is such a republican area.

[BabsSong]

4. glad you had lots of turnout ...

seeing the overview that I talked about above this whole puppy is going to come down to turn out and hopefully the Dems who are now "united and getting out there and voting" keep up the passion through November. They have got to turn out in droves.

[lancdem]

6. FYI, Kentucky was a state Bush won by 16 points in 2000

It was NOT competitive.

[Zero Gravitas]

7. Turn out will be Key

we much show up at the polls with the highest possible turnout to win, especially with Nader in the race (bastard).

[NewJeffCT]

9. Bush has had over 2 years...

* has had over 2 years of the media giving him a B/J after 9/11. If you got a B/J every time you were watching, reading or listening to the news, you'd probably be brainwashed, too.

[cap]

10. the republicans are working hard...

all that $200 million is going somewhere. There is a Republican precinct captain in every pricint in every swing state.

We need to get off the 'puter and onto the streets in a GOTV movement.