What was the polling data before the Spnaish election?

[Homer12]

Does anybody have any information on this?

[markses]

1. Before the bombing: Popular Party 41%, Socialists 36-37%

By the middle of last week, the game seemed over. The polls suggested that the government would lose its absolute majority, but still win the election (the figures gave it around 41 percent and the Socialists 36 or 37 percent). Aznar, too, knew what he had when he named the gentlemanly Rajoy his successor: He was distinctly less threatening and irritating than Aznar himself. The Socialists (I talked with a number of persons who will now be ministers) were resigning themselves to another four years of opposition. The government's left and liberal critics in the media were hopeful that Rajoy would change the atmosphere, which they found detestable under Aznar. His hints and his own turns of phrase even led to hope that he would deemphasize the Bush alliance and move again toward Europe.

Source: http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2004/03/16/spain/index.html

(Wonderful article in Salon).

[Homer12]

2. Thanks

41% is not a terribly large margin away from 36.5%(averaged) about a 4% difference, statistically it measn nothing and was more of a head-to-head race.

It seems to me that it was quite possible that the Conservatives might/could have lost even without the bombings in Madrid anyway.

The conservative media spin omits this small margin between this polling and seems to like to forget that 90% of the Spanish people were against this war.

I see the bombing as the "adding fuel to the fire" so to speak to an already motivated public.

[markses]

3. The Socialist won by 5%

Mainly through the influence of 3 million new voters. The PP lost 700,000 votes from its 2000 total.