Recall: How popular is Riordan in LA?

[redeye]

LA is crucial for a Green (or Arianna, or Democratic should McAuliffe come to his senses) victory in the replacement vote. The county has about 30% of the state's population; the city has between 10% and 12% of the population. The city and county are also very Democratic; take LA County out and Simon would've won in 2002; and look briefly at the 2000 Congressional district map and see that Gore won in all LA City CDs. If Riordan is popular in LA, then Camejo/Arianna/whoever can kiss LA bye-bye (consider this: Giuliani would've been easily elected to the Senate had he run in 2000).

[waggawagga]

1. Riordan is Very Popular in LA

I think he's by far a bigger threat than Schwarzenegger and will take the race unless Davis beats the recall. Riordan vs. Feinstein would be a close race.

[waggawagga]

4. Oh, and...

Davis hung on during the last gubenatorial election by running negative ads against Riordan. This probably wasn't enough to do him in but then the GOP hardcore types went for Simon (because they supported him on all of the nutty social issues).

In the recall this math goes against Davis. If turnout is small and concentrated among GOP conservatives the recall wins. If turnout is large a lot of moderate voters will swing behind Riordan (the effect of Davis' ads last time around, I think, was that a lot of these people stayed home).

Davis has to beat the recall. When this is over I think it will turn out that the small fry candidates never had a chance (gut feeling, even Feinstein wouldn't beat Riordan at this point, but hey, that's just me).

[Semi_subversive]

2. My Demo friends

in the LA area tell me Riordan is probably further to the left than Davis.

[redeye]

3. Lol...

...so, in other words, if it's a close Riordan/Issa election, I should vote Riordan?

[waggawagga]

5. The goofy thing about the CA recall...

is that there won't be any runoff election. I don't think the GOP conservatives like Issa or Simon stand any chance. If Davis is recalled and Feinstein isn't on the ballot I think Riordan will get more than 60%. People are expecting lower numbers because it's a crowded field but Riordan is a moderate Republican and he has the name recognition. Dramatic irony would be if Feinstein ran and Riordan split the rest of the vote with Issa/Simon (that would be funny and is possible since conservatives in CA are, um, well, such idiots).

[Jack Rabbit]

6. Riordan would be a major threat

Any moderte cnadidate would be a threat to Davis, who is seen in California, rightly or wrongly, as an ineffective moderate. Californians who view Davis as such do not think that effective moderate is an oxymoran. Most voters don't.

The unpopularity of Davis is personal, not ideological. This is one reason why the Democrats would be wise to encourage Feinstein to run. It is also why Riordan would be a strong candidate.

Related thread:
Could a Riordan candidacy sink Davis? in General Discussion

[redeye]

7. I know the thread you linked me to...

...I was asking about Riordan's popularity for this precise reason. If he runs, my call is Riordan in LA and Orange County, Camejo/Arianna on the coast (from Santa Barbara north), and Simon+Issa in the Central Valley, Sierra Nevada, and San Diego (note that since they are two candidates tehy may split the vote between them too hopelessly).

[Jack Rabbit]

8. Keep in mind that there is a duel strategy here

Terry McAuliffe seems to miss that point.

There are two issues: one is whether Davis should be recalled; the other is who should replace him if he is. Davis' fate is entirely wrapped up in the first question. The Democrats have no reason to tie their fate up in it as well.

This is from the San Jose Mercury News article cited in the other thread:

One wild card that could derail a Riordan run is a late entry by Sen. Dianne Feinstein as a Democratic backup to Davis. Riordan has told Johnson and a newspaper columnist that he would not run if Feinstein entered the race.

[redeye]

9. I know about the dual strategy...

...and I think that McAuliffe's strategy on not running any Democrat in the replacement is absolutely nuts (even though it may turn out to be good if Camejo wins because of it...).

Anyway, I don't know whether Riordan is better than Feinstein (RINO vs. DINO)... is he?