How many states can Dean win?

[redeye]

I want a reasoned discussion, not "DEAN CAN'T WIN!!!" slogans. If Dean is the Presidential nominee and Clark is the VP nominee, what're your calls on the 51 states+DC?

On another note, please refrain from debating Dean's positions on the issues. I'm asking how electable Dean is, not how much you support his politics.

[whirlygigspin]

1. Here's a map, take a look

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-dean.htm

[Cascadian]

3. I think Oregon would go for Dean.

Add a couple more states like New Mexico and West Virginia than Dean could become the next president.

John

[Ediacara]

4. I would add

Nevada, Arizona, Arkansas, and West Virginia is blue-striped, possibly even more states.

[SGrande]

6. depends on the money

He needs "real" operations meaning paid people, not this volunteer stuff running the thing.

Dean's volunteer army is unbeatable, but only if there are people on the ground who can contribute 100% of their time towards steering the beast towards the target: "Dubya" and beating him.

We need science to beat bush and that takes paid staff.

Dean needs to spend less $ on ads in Texas and more on paid professionals intergrated with the volunteer masses he has.

[ferg]

17. "science" to beat Bush?

What? I realize the term "science" as been so perverted to be almost meaningless, but that makes no sense whatsoever.

The main qualification of paid political staff is to get paid for working on political campaigns. Lieberman has a highly paid staff on his campaign and it's going nowhere. There's far more political talent outside the paid political staff than there is with the paid hacks.

One of the main things the Dean campaign realizes is that there's more political talent in the volunteer community than in the "paid staff." Before the internet, it was impossible to coordinate that talent.

The "paid staff" is a limiting block. Mostly, they're mediocre hacks. Putting the hacks in charge of the "science" and relegating the volunteer "masses" to work phone banking and licking envelopes, would destroy the talent, creativity and power of Dean's volunteers.

Actually, your suggestion is pissing me off. Viewing political volunteers as "masses" to be guided by the professionals, is exactly why campaigns like Kerry and Lieberman are flailing.

Mediawhoresonline is run by a nobody. Atrios is a nobody. Bev Harris isn't a paid political professional. William Pitt is a high school teacher.

What the Democratic establishment does not get and may never get is that living inside the Beltway and getting paid as a political hack does not confer ability, passion or results.

A campaign that wants to win (as opposed to a campaign that wants to play Beltway professional games) needs to find and use all the talent it can find. Dean's campaign is doing that. The other campaigns are ignoring or squashing the talent of their own supporters.

[TLM]

16. I'd say his NRA rating gives him a good chance of getting

Colorado and Missouri as well.

[redeye]

25. Hopefully...

CO repealed its sex laws years, maybe even decades ago. It's very rugged-individualistic, so I presume that Dean, who's really a left-leaning libertarian, will be able to carry it. MO is a national bellweather (has voted for the winner 24 times out of 26 since 1900 IIRC); Dean has a pretty good chance there because it has strong NRA presence, but on the other hand he's going to get kinda screwed because of its anti-choice population as well as strong union influence on Democratic voters.

[WyLoochka]

41. Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico

Yes - Dean can win here. A recent poll found Dean doing unexpectedly well in the southwestern mountain states.

Maybe we will, at long last, be finally liberated from having to pander to the reactionary, Bible Belt south.

And then - "we won't have to listen to those fundamentalist preachers anymore" YES!!!!!!!

[onehandle]

8. Interesting....

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-graham.htm

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-lieberman.htm

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-gephardt.htm

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm

Kerry and Dean don't look too good according to UVA.

Of course it's so early that this is pointless, but....enjoy!

[jfxgillis]

2. Take Gore's map

add either New Hampshire OR Kentucky OR West Virginia and Howard Dean is the next President of the United States.

[ChoralScholar]

5. I would hope that

a Dean/Clark ticket would take Arkansas, but I wouldn't count on it. Ever since the 1996 election, my fair state is overflowing with full-fledged nutbars. Very sad for a state that was once a democratic stronghold. Furthermore, most people in AR are still asking who Clark is, even though he hails from Little Rock.

I'd vote a Dean/Clark ticket anyway!!!

ChoralScholar

[newyawker99]

40. Hi ChoralScholar!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[sasquatch]

7. Dean will win Ohio

The moron and chief barely won Ohio and now that everyone is laid off they have had it with the Bush Crime Family. The good news is how Ohio goes is how America goes. Hopefuly Kucinich will win the primary and then we'll really kick some Republican Nazi Facist ass.
I think Kucinich can win because he is from the cradle of presidents and it's been a while since we've had one and were due.

Misspelled due

[redeye]

10. Not sure about that...

...Ohio has a high population of fundie wingnuts. Dean is more secular than any other politician I can name except Jesse Ventura (and even Ventura's being mroe secular is questionable).

[waggawagga]

9. It's unknowable at this point.

The problem with taking the 2000 election map as your starting point is that if there's something about Dean's personality or issues which voters don't like this might go across the board (eg. +5% for Bush and he wins in a landslide). But the reverse might also happen.

It's pretty obvious who is behind the "Dean can't win" talk. The two issues people should look at months from now are: 1) does any candidate generate high negatives; 2) is the geographical distribution of support weird (eg. concentrated in the Northeast but people in the South and West don't like him).

Presidential elections are popularity contests. The best candidate probably will be the person with the strongest personality (and between Kerry and Dean, really, who knows at this point).

[waggawagga]

12. ...

Dean and Kerry are untested in a national campaign and both have this potential to implode once the primaries get going. This is just intuition on my part but there's a darkness to Kerry's personality and we have no idea how this might play out on a national stage. One John McCainesque blowup could sink him.

Dean's problem, I think, is that he wants it so badly, and has so much support from volunteers--ideological voters--that he might rip into other Democratic candidates the moment things get rough. Voters don't go for angry candidates. I think that's been shown time and again.

[WyLoochka]

44. "Voters don't go for angry candidates."

"I think that's been shown time and again."

Really?

The Repubs have largely expressed nothing BUT anger for decades - Tom DeLay being the epitome and quintessential example - and they are IN and we polite, patient, "Bayh partisan" led Dems are OUT.

I'm angry and I want my candidate to share that anger and straight-up tell the rest of my fellow country folks why they should consider being angry too.

Pulling this country back from the right wing cliff should be regarded as an educational process. We have to inform people that the New Feudalism of the Repubs is diametrically opposed to their interests and well being and that it is totally OK to be pissed about it.

[DemBones DemBones]

11. It's all idle speculation at this point. The only thing we know for

sure is that Bush* will almost certainly be the GOP candidate. Whoever gets the nomination will need a lot of help to get out the vote so it's important to remember that everyone who regularly supports the Democratic party will be needed to work for the nominee, whoever that is. Nobody can count on winning without enthusiastic, energetic party support.

[dsc]

13. Here is my list

First the ones that just about any Democrat is going to win:

CA, NY, NJ, MA, VT, ME, CT, RI, HI, IL, MD, and DC.

Then the very likely ones for again just about any Democrat:

MN, IA, WI, OR, WV, and NV.

Given the ticket you said and a poor economy add in these

PA, MI, NM, AR, and maybe OH, TN, or FL.

[tedoll78]

30. Exactly.

That third list is crucial.

If Dean is the nominee - and it looks very possible - he NEEDS Graham. Graham, I'd guess, has a 90% chance of delivering Florida. He won re-election with over 65% of the vote, winning in all but one of Florida's 67 counties. The foreign policy/intelligence weight added to the ticket, combined with the Nascar Dad target marketing that Graham is pursuing is priceless.

Also concern ourselves with Michigan and Pennsylvania. Two big things in these states contribute to the Dems' GOTV operation: unions and popular sitting Democrat governors. With Dean taking-away the gun issue and with jobs being shed like long dog fur in summer, these are ours to lose.

Oregon will probably be ours. To a large degree, it depends on what the Greens do. If Nader is their nominee, it moves from 'leaning Dem' to tossup. Tread carefully, Dr!

Wisconsin: Feingold is up for re-election - this should help turnout there. Again, the Green factor hits. Stress jobs and environment.

New Mexico is simple: highlight Bill Richardson at the convention and then campaign with him throughout the state. Richardson was elected as governor here with about 65% of the vote and is still very popular; he can deliver.

Arkansas: campaign with Clinton. Get a kick-ass voting registration drive going here, and get it going EARLY. Go door-to-door in Dem strongholds (they're all in urban areas, so it's easier for Dems to go door-to-door than it is for the GOP to do so in their own strongholds). Bring voter registration forms and absentee ballots. Turnout.

Ohio: What about Jerry Springer? Gore lost by 4%, Nader got 2%, and Gore gave-up on the state three weeks before the election. Shame on him! 20 electoral votes! Seriously, Springer could bring nontraditional voters (read: young) to the polls. Young people vote about 3-2 in favor of the Democrat. Again, it's the economy, stoopid!

Another strategy in rural areas (GOP strongholds): billboards. Let's suppress the GOP's turnout. Highlight how non-military spending has gone up by over 20% under Bush - more than all of Clinton's years. Highlight how Bush praised the affirmative action ruling of the Supreme Court - that'll piss-off some rednecks! Highlight how Bush named openly gay ambassadors to foreign countries, even recognizing their partners. If we can cut into 2 or 3% of his base and get them to think "Why bother voting?" our chances jump.

Finally, we need an INFOMERCIAL. This tool worked wonders for Perot's campaign in 1992. Half an hour to clearly and slickly convince voters that Dr Dean is the man for the job. No pundits dissecting what he's said, no adulteration of the message - we just tell them what we're for and how our plan is going to work. This shows that we do have a clear vision for America, and we can keep the tone of the message pleasant. Since the GOP's convention is last, the Chimp will have the last word - very advantageous. We could negate this by airing an infomercial on Monday night, November 1, 2004. As much as 10% of the voting population could be undecided at that point, and this could give them a nudge into our corner.
An infomercial - YES.

Dr Dean can win this thing.

[bluestateguy]

14. Dean

I'll give him the West Coast, Hawaii, New Mexico, Nevada, and all the other states Gore won plus New Hampshire and Ohio. Florida will be tough (remember who is counting the votes), but not impossible. Other states where Dean has a chance would be:

West Virginia
Arkansas
Tennessee
Missouri
Louisiana
Kentucky
Arizona
Colorado

If Dean wins one of the states on that list * is in very serious trouble.

[whirlygigspin]

15. Ohio

If the very competitve map total is correct, then Dean wins if he
takes Ohio +20

that give Dean 284 Bush 254

[foo_bar]

18. the zebra states

The best-case natural Dean constituency is:

+ VT, MA, ME, NH, CT, DE, RI, NY, NJ, MD, CA, OR, WA, (DC)
? HI, IA, MN, WI, WV, NM

If he carries the + column he has 180 electoral votes. With the leaning states he's up to 220. The fulcrum of power is then the states with a large black swing vote namely PA, FL, MI, IL, of which he'd have to win three. Since Dr. "It takes a white leader" Dean makes Dukakis look like a homeboy, I'm not very optimistic about his chances.

[whoYaCallinAlib]

19. Enough to come in second.

I'm afraid Dean is too far left. I would feel alot better about our chances if Kerry or Edwards were our nominee.

It's just an opinion.

[wuushew]

20. Why is Dean too far left?

A majority of people in America support balanced budgets and rational protections of civil rights. Your just repeating more republican propaganda.

[whoYaCallinAlib]

22. Really? I thought I was repeating DLC propaganda.

I'm a middle of the road centrist. I prefer middle of the road centrists as my nominee. I prefer Kerry or Edwards. That's okay to disagree isn't it?

[wuushew]

23. You really find that much difference between Kerry and Dean?

Although the two men do not like each other, the main source of their differences is their public positions on the issue of Iraq. I don't know what your opinion regarding the justification for that action is but many many people cannot deal with the cave in on the war vote. Myself included.

Secondly when you type "Dean is to far left to win" without attributing it to the DLC you imply that it is YOUR position as well. Since you fail to cite why you believe that Dean is so much farther left of center you fail to elevate yourself from the assumption that you too are another victim of propaganda.

[Shanty Oilish]

28. Too far left

Wouldn't you call pro-choice a leftwing position? How about gay rights?
Is it republican propaganda to call me a leftist because I support such things?
As for supporting balanced budgets, Dean wants to repeal tax cuts. Ask Walter Mondale how that flies.
It's said a candidate has to win the center. Can Dean do that? He's no further left than McGovern, Mondale and Dukakis (although I don't recall they took positions on gay marriage) but that's left enough.

And he'll win when the South secedes from the Union. Maybe he could run well on that.

[wuushew]

31. So Kerry is not pro-choice?

Gay rights = Massachussets now considering gay marridge, IF Kerry is in step with his state as a law maker then he would seem to have a similar tone to Dean.

Tax-Increases = Bill Clinton, re-elected in 1996 easily



Again why is Kerry a centrist and Dean a liberal(hint IRAQ)

[Shanty Oilish]

35. Kerry a centrist, Dean a liberal...?

Well, I'd say Kerry's nearer the center if you see the center as approving the war against Iraq. Kerry voted for the resolution, though he's not pleased with the follow-through.
What I don't understand is how Dean juggles an anti-war stance with his position on more troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. To my way of thinking, a good lefty would just endorse our quitting the scene and letting the Iraqis get on with their lives and sovereignty. More butter and less guns. Nevertheless, it's civil liberties that make the lefty, and both Kerry and Dean are squarely on the left in that regard.
Both Yale men, too...hmm...

[redeye]

32. He's pro-gun...

...and besides, he knows how to advertise repealing tax cuts. He doesn't have the intelligence and honesty of Mondale ("the next president will have to raise taxes. Mr. Reagan won't tell you that; I just did"), but he knows how to make the tax cut repeal look good: "You can either take your 200 dollars or have free health care, better education."

[wuushew]

33. How about more research before posting!

Senator Kerry's first statement in the United States Senate was in strong support of Roe v. Wade, and he has fought against the conservative crusade against reproductive rights, from gag rules that stop doctors from discussing choice with their patients to efforts to deny poor women the right to choose.

http://www.johnkerry.com/site/PageServer?pagename=wom_main

[Shanty Oilish]

36. Let me be blunt. What are you talking about?

I know Kerry's pro-choice. Did I say otherwise?

[wuushew]

37. I am responding to post #28

Where you correctly definine the way the right defines the concept of "leftist". Since Kerry and Dean share many of these categories aren't they both "leftists" to the republicans? That is the over-arching emphasis of my posts here. They are identical by virtue of thier pro-choice stands atleast so let us reframe the argument in concern to where actual differences lay.

[Shanty Oilish]

39. Choice is not the sole issue, even for Republicans

...to whom all liberals must look alike.
I was responding (I think, at 4 a.m.) to the contention that labeling them leftist was republican propaganda. Or labeling them "too far left."
I would say (you might not) that "far" left -- cutting edge, avant garde left -- today, is gay marriage/civil unions. And arguably, pro-choice is far left. Not here in DU, but in America in general. To me, even the pro-choicers here in DU are too squishy. And if you believe polls (in this regard, I do) pro-choice is losing support out there.

However. Kerry's perceived (correctly, I believe) to be nearer the center than Dean. The latter is solidly anti-war. Kerry voted for it.
Don't ask me to explain or defend Dean's idea about sending in more troops, I can't. But he thinks the war was wrongful, and that makes him a purer lefty than Kerry.

For the record, I'm hoping Kerry wins the nomination. Not because I like everything he says, but because I think he can win. We need to win. He can win because he won't scare people away with a pure leftist stance against war and American pistol-swinging.

Better yet, Gore will change his mind. Then the election won't be about the L word at all.

[Shanty Oilish]

21. We have 51 states now?

How long was I asleep?
Ok, you're asking how electable is Dean. I think he'll win any state that has a majority of African-American voters...any state with 51% of its voters in favor of gay marriage...any state with 51% pro-choice...and as Newsweek relates Dean was forced to apologize for saying that if welfare recipients “had any self-esteem, they’d be working,” any state in which all the welfare recipients are also too lazy to vote.
Sarcasm off. Even if the economy does a nose dive, I think he would lose because IMO domestic and economic issues have taken a back seat to security against foreign terrorism. Furthermore, news has it that sentiment is turning away from gay rights and pro-choice. People feel threatened and we've got an incumbent perceived to be very tough on furriners and very Christian about sinning. Therefore I doubt Dean will even win the nomination.
Sorry. I voted for McGovern, and he's no McGovern.
PS: Correct me if I'm wrong but I'd swear I heard Dean tell Tim Russert we needed MORE troops in Iraq.

[TLM]

24. More troops in Iraq...

Yeah UN troops.

"Dean was forced to apologize for saying that if welfare recipients “had any self-esteem, they’d be working,”"

Ya just can't cut enough words from that quote to hide the BS spin.

Dean was sayig that being stuck on welfare robs you of your self-esteem... not that people who are on welfare are on welfare BECAUSE of low self-esteem.

[Shanty Oilish]

26. Here's the statement from the transcript...

Dean: I know there are roughly between a million and two million people active duty. I know that we don’t have enough people in Iraq. I know that General Shinseki said that we need 300,000 troops to go into Iraq, not 200,000 troops, and I’m prepared to assume the burden and have the proper people around me advising me on what needs to be done.
Russert: All right, Afghanistan, we have 9,000. You would bring it up to what level?
Dean: Well, I believe that we need a very substantial increase in troops. They don’t all have to be American troops. My guess would be that we would need at least 30,000 and 40,000 additional troops. They don’t all have to be American because we have got to start taking over the security functions from the warlords in order to prepare the way for a unified Afghan police force that’s a national police force.

That's from http://www.msnbc.com/news/912159.asp

That (and his utterly garbled argument for the death penalty) turned me off. Note "we" don't have enough people in Iraq, and "I'm prepared to assume the burden." If WE need them, they will be American soldiers. What else can "we need them" mean, but that the cause is righteous?
McGovern my ass. He sounds like he could be the next Lyndon Johnson.

[redeye]

27. 51 states that vote in presidential elections

And I think that Dean's gun stance is more than going to make up for his social liberalism. Colorado and Arizona are more libertarian than fundamentalistic; Missouri will be a tossup because it has a sizable gun nut population on the one hand and sizable union and fundie populations (the former won't be very enthusiastic about Dean, whereas the latter will be thoroughly pissed with his being a secularist); Michigan will probably go Democratic because of both gun nuts and Arabs; hell, even Tennessee might go Dem if Dean manages to campaign on "when did you last get a raise?" and "you and not I will choose your gun laws."

[Shanty Oilish]

29. *ahem* I'm a gun nut...

...but most people are not. Besides, 2A is not going to be an issue, against a rootin-tootin cowboy like Bush.

[redeye]

34. It's not...

...but Bush won't be able to paint Dean as a gun-grabber. Gore lost Tennessee because he supported gun control.

[Shanty Oilish]

38. Tennesseeans favor gun control...and they don't smoke either!

LOL, take this 2001 poll for what it's worth:

"The statewide survey discloses that Tennesseans who favor more gun control outnumber those who don't, their attitudes vary little among the state's three Grand Divisions, and they are largely nonsmokers."

That's from http://www.tennessean.com/local/archives/01/03/03422295.shtml

:smoke:

[Corgigal]

42. this isnt about liberal

or too far left, this is about who average American workers believe and trust with their jobs. They will vote for the person they think will allow them to be employed until the next payday. Bush has a unforgiveable record. Anytime someone says Dean (Kerry or anyone on the Dem ticket) is too far left, or is for gay marriages all you have to say is, I guess you don't believe you too can be laid off.
Hit the fear and all those useless labels go bye bye.
If Dean wants to win he must select Graham. I personally would love to see Cheney and Graham in a debate. Wouldn't you?

[goobergunch]

43. Dean CAN win 32 states...

for 383 EV:

HI
CA
OR
WA
NV
AZ
NM
LA
AR
MO
IA
MN
WI
IL
TN
MI
OH
WV
NC
FL
MD
DE
NJ
DC
CT
RI
MA
PA
NY
VT
NH
ME

I'm not saying that he will, but I think he can.