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Too close to the truth.
In general, shifts in the economy lead to more prosperity, and in general a better way of life, in this iteration, it is very difficult to make that leap of faith.
An example often used is the horse buggy builders around the turn of the 20th century. The automobile's arrival caused a significant downward pressure on their core business. Many folded, a few transitioned into automobile coach design.
However, in all these prior examples, there has been a path of transition (albeit not always obvious) for the displaced masses that were effected.
This time however, that path is just not there. There are no magic jobs that are waiting to absorb the displaced workers.
I worked for a company that was downsizing its US workforce, while aggressively using third party vendors in India to do much of the skilled labor that was being laid off in the US. The company ironically was boasting about how this was great for the bottom line during group meetings. My peers and I would stare at each other a gasp. All of us had known good, capable people who were outsourced.
Perhaps in 20 years, looking back, there will have been a recovery, a new vector for these white collar workers to migrate to. For the life of me, I can not see a new segment to take up the displaced workers.
Geoff
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