Canadian Federal Election: When would you call it?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

Paul Martin has been planning for months for a May 10th election. Parliamentary business has been wrapped up, once the budget is dropped tomorrow, there will be no new legislation forthcoming in this parliament. The cabinet he put together in December is purely a stop-gap team put in place to fill time leading up to an election.
Whereas it is not a legal requirement for a new PM to seek a mandate at the ballot box, it is common practice, and Martin has big plans ahead that he desperately needs his own mandate for.
Now of course, his plans are in tatters. The sponsorship scandal has exploded Liberal hopes, to the point at which they now sit at around 38% in the opinion polls, not enough for a majority government. The opposition is resurgent, with a (sort of) united Conservative party, a Bloc Quebecois that can currently claim the support of half of Quebeckers, and an NDP that has returned to its historical range of support (16-20%).
And the picture is not going to get better for Martin. There are more skeletons in the closet, as the Sponsorship scandal continues, the Maher Ahar Inquiry is also looming, along with reports of further revelations of Liberal corruption in BC. Public opinion is hardening against the Liberal brand.
But for Martin, to wait, to call the election in the fall has its own pitfalls. First and foremost, a May election would catch the nascent Conservative Party of Canada unready. With a leader anointed only this weekend, Martin could go to the polls quickly, kill Harper's momentum and destroy the CPC at birth. Furthermore, Martin himself is personally popular, polling at around 60% popularity. This will not last, and the longer his Premiership continues, the more difficult it will be to maintain that popularity.
Today, Martin will announce a massive aid package for western farmers who have been hard hit by the BSE scare. He will announce it in Picture Butte, Alberta, in the riding where Martin's hopes for a Western revival are embodied in his candidate, former Alberta Liberal leader, Ken Nicol. Tomorrow, Finance Minister Ralph Goodale will announce the budget. If that goes well (and it likely will), Martin will have the only opportunity for good media before the news barren summer months. It may well be the time to drop the writ.

If I were Paul Martin, I would call the election for May. It would show strength, where he is percieved as weak, and force the debate over to his personal leadership, where he is considered strong. His party is ready to go, and that machine cannot idle at the starting line for long. He should meet his challenges head on, and stand or fall on that. I would say go.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

1. Kick (just one, honest)

[Coyul]

2. If I were Mr. Martin....

...I think I would go ahead witht he May date. Even with the problems the Liberals have there, there is little chance Mr. Harper, and his newly reorganized group or neanderthals (Read:Conservative party-and perhaps I am being a little harsh, at least he's not Stockwell Day)could win. If he is going to wait at all and not use the May date, I would hold them in mid-October... after the summer, but before the US elections.

Just my 2 cents from just across the border!

Coyul

[Spazito]

3. I think he should call it in May or early June...

before Harper can get his crap together. Waiting isn't going to help, imo

[Screaming Lord Byron]

4. Martin should work the wedge issues to drive old PC'ers away from Harper.

That shouldn't be difficult. With NDP and Liberal fire on those issues, the CPC base could fracture. I noticed two things at the CPC Conference at the weekend. Firstly, Mike Harris (who was sitting beside Belinda) was on the verge of tears as the results came in, that says something for Harper's appeal in Ontario. Secondly, there was a distinct lack of the hardcore old-school reformers, such as Myron Thompson, Art Hanger and Darrel Stinson. Very few of the old extreme reformers were in attendance. That is of some interest to us.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

5. Budget day today - Watch the Petro Canada shares.

I have a feeling we'll be seeing some surprises there.

[Minstrel Boy]

6. He has to call it now.

As you say, the machine cannot idle for long. And it could be much more dangerous to wager everything on circumstances improving six months or a year from now, when this could be as good as it gets.

And even though it's only three and a half years since the last one, this would not be a premature call, since we have a de facto new government and Prime Minister. Martin needs a mandate.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

7. We're starting to see glimpses of Martin's election strategy.

Yesterday's BSE announcement (in Lethbridge, where Martin's star Alberta candidate, former provincial leader Ken Nicol is running) combined with today's budget, which I guess will contain a little surprise about the $3.5bn or so they can raise from selling the Petro Canada shares (that money is going into some new program, I think), combined with the Whistleblower legistlation, plus one or more two big announcements over the next week, all point to an imminent election call.
I think Martin is ready to go early.

[Screaming Lord Byron]

8. Breaking on the CBC - Ottawa to sell Petro-Canada shares.

http://www.cbc.ca/stories/2004/03/23/business/petcan040323

OTTAWA - The federal government will sell its stake in Petro-Canada, Finance Minister Ralph Goodale said Tuesday, in a transaction that could earn Ottawa almost $3 billion.

Goodale confirmed media speculation about the impending sale just hours before he was due to deliver the budget speech.

In a three-paragraph statement, Goodale said the governent would sell its stake, but "the precise timing of the sale is yet to be determined."

Rumours have been mounting since a media report on the weekend said Ottawa was considering selling its stake in Petro-Canada (TSX-PCA). Since then, there have been more stories citing unnamed sources.

This is all part of the Liberal plan to win votes in Alberta. I wonder if it will work?

[Minstrel Boy]

9. Damn them.

Though to be honest, I didn't know the federal government still had a stake in Petro-Canada. I guess Mulroney had sold off only controlling interest.

A publically-owned energy company made sense for Canada in the early 1970s, when it was created during the NDP-Liberal coalition. And it makes even more sense now.