Taking "bets": When will Bush first poll below 50%?

[Brotherjohn]

I'm saying August 20th.

For our purposes here, include Bush's "approval" rating from any of the major, nation-wide, opinion polls as reported on the Pollingreport.com (http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm) or Pollkatz (http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/) web sites.

[Birthmark]

1. In truth

He's already well below 50%. All the current poll numbers *really* tell us is how many people are comfortable disapproving of * over the telephone. In the environment created by this misAdministration, that is understandable. It also skews the results in his favor.

When Reagan was President, I never had any trouble finding his supporters. This is back in the days when Message Boards were called cocktail parties. :) I held off roomfuls of his supporters many times. Contrasting that with *, I have a much more difficult time trying to find his supporters. He is in massive trouble and the polls aren't even beginning to tell the story.

[Brotherjohn]

2. Yes. I also think his true approval rating is well below 50%...

... as evidenced by the fact that his numbers have ALWAYS been in steep decline (with the exception of the few weeks after 9-11 and the onset of the Iraq War).

His approval rating is inflated in the polls simply because people feel we are "at war" and it is not "right" to say you're against the president. Put them in the voting booth, on the other hand...

I think they will eventually drop more to coincide with his actual popularity level, however.

[gristy]

3. August 18, in the Ipsos-Reid poll, at 49%

Linear extrapolation (a reasonable approximation, given that we are so close to 50% now) of the pollkatz summary of "approval" polls would seem to predict that the low side of the distribution will cross 50% around August 2. The Zogby poll could be the one that drops below 50% first, being historically lower than all the others, but they don't poll as often as, say, Ipsos-Reid (twice a month).

That said, I predict August 18, in the Ipsos-Reid poll, at 49%.

[leftofthedial]

4. August 2001

oops.

[HFishbine]

5. December

2003.

He's tracking his father's presidency:

[Starpass]

6. I'll stick with a prediction I made a few months ago as I saw the slide

beginning to emerge. It will take until after Labor Day. Right now people are zoned out even further than their usual zoned out because of summer/fun/vacations. Like Bush said last year: you don't start a new line in the summer. Well, he will try to come out swining in Sept. but he's blown his wad and all he will be doing is running around looking for money. BUT this is when the Dems will start the race for the primaries (and the WH). That's the traditional time to let the party begin. When the "scrum" starts, Bush's football is going to be mutilated. As even pointed out in major newspapers (they must read DU 'cause it's always two months or more before one of their asshole ace reporters can figure out what we already know), Bush cannot "do" another war right now 'cause the people are weary, the last one hasn't been explained, and the people are scared shitless of the money being spent. If he "does" a terror attack they will take his face off. He's stymede (sp.?). After the Dem attacks begin, a mid Sept. poll will show the bastard in trouble. (beware of bastards in trouble).