The Magically Missing 14%

[The Lone Liberal]

There has been a 14% decline in average Democratic presidential support between Kennedy-Johnson and Clinton elections. Where did the 14% go? How do we get it back? One hint is that it isn’t the wired workers and soccer moms no matter what everyone wants to believe.

If the Democratic Party does not define where this 14% shift occurred and take steps to regain their support we will not win the next election. IMHO it will take some bold new proposals from a party who has wanted to play in the center for the last four decades.

[w4rma]

1. Dump DLC big-buisness economic policy (n/t)

[greatauntoftriplets]

4. Exactly.

And send out a more populist message and image to appeal to Joe Six-Pack. Speak out more on social issues and how the repukes are dancing on the grave of the safety net. Speak out more on the erosion of the Constitution in a post-911 world. Who is the gravest threat to American society? The Muslim devil of the week or the * cabal?

[dansolo]

24. Post 9/11 world

These sorts of people don't pay attention to the erosion of the Constitution. What we need to get through to them is the erosion of our *SECURITY* in the post-911 world. Everything that Bush has done has made us less secure, both economically and militarily. Homeland security is underfunded, our military is tragically misappropriated. Are forces are stretched far to thin. We could never respond to a real threat, because all of our forces are either chasing Saddam's shadow, guarding the oil fields, or are sitting around waiting to get shot. And we have done nothing to deal with al Quaeda or the countries that support them (i.e. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan)

[The Lone Liberal]

6. You may be on to something

All day I have been thinking that the Democrats must define the Republicans as they truly are:

They are the bosses that lied to you
They are the bosses who worked you overtime and would not pay you for that time
They are the bosses who shipped your friend’s job overseas
They are the bosses who never gave you a raise, but got his fat bonus
They are the bosses who cheated, lost the company and your job , but walked away with millions of dollars
They are the bosses who stole your father’s pension plan and are stealing yours
They are the bosses who says we can no longer afford health benefits for the workers, but still pays the due at the country club.

That is who the Republican Party is, they all of those bosses who have worked to destroy your hopes and your family’s dreams.

But, that is not enough the Democratic Party must offer a solution to that situation and bold programs that will once again make this the country that sent a man to the moon.

[ewagner]

27. Hey, I think you've got something there

That is a pretty direct populous message.....I'll use it often

(with no objection)

[Pobeka]

30. And, they are the bosses who own your TV channel and newspaper

And only tell you what they want you to hear

[SoCalDem]

2. People who were in their mid-life when Kennedy was elected are now dead

and their kids were college educated and had an "easy life"..they did not learn first-hand how important the programs that the dems initiated were/are..

This was the group that was just a few years too old to be drafted into viet nam and they "got on with their lives" before the turmoil of the late sixties.. These folks are the ones we "lost"..IMHO :)

[The Lone Liberal]

8. Only 2/5th of the majority have any education beyond high school.

that is not enough to explain the missing 14%

[SoCalDem]

11. the combination of the oldsters dying, and their "kids" who are affluent

now.. that has to account for soome of it.. That small wedge of "kids", the ones born in the early top mid 40's were the last batch to be pretty sure of getting a pension, and they got in place before the massivce bulge of boomers came along.. We were the ones who go none of the "goodies".. Those folks are in their late 50's now and my guess is, that most of them are pretty well set.. :shrug:

[SharonAnn]

12. You're absolutely right! It's been disapointing to watch my

generation take what we were given for granted and then vote for things (and people) who would destroy what we were given. Do they think freedom, good schools, good highways, good foreign policy, good medical insurance, etc. will be there anyway? No matter what they do or who they vote for?

I hear people around me always complaining about how much they pay in taxes and they don't pay HALF of what my parents paid - even including Social Security and Medicare taxes. And yet, when they need some help (special education for their kids/grandkids, home health care for themselves or their parents, welfare for a child/grandhcild who's been divorced and having to restart their lives) they expect government services to be there and provided to them and they're angry when they find out there's little or nothing available.

My parents were both from poor families, they worked their way through college back when there weren't student loans (my Dad did get some help from the GI Bill after serving 3 years in the Army) and they managed to earn good incomes and they NEVER complained about taxes. They even voted for things that would raise their taxes because they were good for the community.

The previous generation built a great country for us, full of freedom and opportunity and education and infrastructure, and we're tearing it apart. It breaks my heart.

[whoYaCallinAlib]

3. Why don't you think it's the middle of the roaders who are

getting more education, more affluence, more suburban lifestyles, and more conservative?

[The Lone Liberal]

10. Because there are studies that tend to disprove all of that.

Teixeira and Rogers for one and Stephen Rose for another. There are more just can not recall at the moment. The information is out there, someone wants us to believe that is answer but it is not.

[On the Road]

5. Most is Probably Accounted for by

white southerners. That's a large area, and civil rights legislation has caused a dramatic change. But it's taken some time -- long-time southern Democratic legislators are still being replaced by Republicans.

[madrchsod]

7. a large percentage

went in the reagan yrs..democrats for reagan bullshit. the union workers and other democrats thought reagan was going to save their jobs from korean and japan. but he screwed them over and they just went along as the mills,machine tool,foundry and forge shops all died....it took years for the rust belt to return,now another repubilcan and another sell off.the rust belt gets hit again....the democrats better get with it cause if they don`t the sell off will continue till there`s nothing left .

[Stephanie]

9. I think it's guns

I think we lose a lot of working people who are our natural constituency over gun issues.

[The Lone Liberal]

13. The majority favor some form of gun control

That is not the answer. Those who vote "guns" never voted Democrat.

[lynndew2]

21. The answer, you all wont like it. IS....

The Democratic party is seen as the party of high taxes and growing goverment. We know that bush is doing that exact thing, to a greater degree but he is also stealing all the dems traditional platforms. He let Ted Kennedy write the education bill. He went for campain reform. He let Dashel double dip on the farm aid stuff. He said the elder citizens should get same prescription plan as congress, ect. ect. He is stealing OUR platform out from beneath US and even if these things get stopped. He has stated he was for them. It really is a pretty well thought out plan. Rove at his best. Sorry to say this all and hope it doesnt get me banned. Just stating what i have observed and telling it as i see it.

[SharonAnn]

15. I don't really understand this because I need a job a lot worse

than I need a gun. Before you flame me, I understand both the philosophical principle and the Constitutional principle of having the "right to bear arms". It's just that if someone really wanted to take over, I'm pretty sure I'd be outgunned.

But day after day, I need a job. So does my husband, and so do my kids. Without a job we're really helpless and then other people control our lives and we have no way to fight back.

[billbuckhead]

16. Guns is code for race and race is the real reason. Georgia is exhibit #1

Lee Atwater's southern strategy keeps on a rollin. We had a popular governor who had a high NRA rating, but had changed the state flag to take the stars and bars off it and he was defeated.

[sandnsea]

25. Yep

Johnson said he'd probably lost the southern vote for generations with the Civil Rights Act, and shrewd politician that he was, he knew exactly what he was talking about.

But if you try to have a discussion about it, you're branded as a racist yourself. I know, I tried.

[xequals]

34. Good point. I can see that.

To some extent it's all part of the whole Civil War battle their still fighting, part of the whole "Confederate" attitude.

[xequals]

33. It has nothing to do with guns

Far left activists always point to "guns" as being the
reason for declining Democratic support -- mainly because "guns" are essentially a special interest concern and many far left activists don't have a feeling about it one way or another (gun control is mainly a moderate/centrist Dem issue). That is the only reason that some on the left often point to "guns" as an issue to "take back".

The fact of the matter is, if a voter is feels strongly about gun rights they will NEVER vote Dem even if the Dem candidate is pro-NRA, any more than someone who feels strongly about abortion rights would vote for a pro-choice Republican. Special interests groups vote for the PARTY that best supports their issue. If Dems did decide to support a relaxation of gun laws, Republicans would simply push the issue to the extreme right and the NRA (and most pro-gun voters) would be all to happy to follow along.

Aside from this, the overwhelming majority of people who feel strongly enough about gun rights (strong enough to vote on it) are decidedly to the right of the political spectrum overall, and would vote Republican anyway even if gun rights wasn't an issue.

[Pepperbelly]

14. political supermajorities are ALWAYS the result of trauma and pain ...

That is where FDR got his base of power for so many years. The farther away the population gets from the pain and trauma that the gops wrought in the 1920s, the smaller the majorities.

No one gets supermajorities without much pain coming first.

[happyslug]

19. True

Remember the first baby boomers came of age during Vietnam, but the Largest number of Baby Boomers came of age AFTER THE DRAFT WAS ABOLISHED. Now the early baby boomers were the largest group of 18 years old we ever had, more than we needed for the Army. Thus many early Baby boomers were spared the draft (in addition to the later baby boomers who missed the draft completly).

The Baby Boomers were subject to the stagflation of the 1970s, but Congress made every effort to make that unemployment revolving i.e. the average person was unemployed for 18 months (With only the Black and poor unemployed for longer periods of time).

Thus the Baby Boomers were spared almost all of the hardache of the last 40 years. These are the people whose parents voted Democratic so that their kids could go to School, be employed AND STAY OUT OF THE DRAFT.

Now many baby boomers were drafted, and served in the Military, other baby boomers were discriminated against, but a large percentage received a better education and work position then their parents, these are the people who have left the Democratic Party. The Baby Boomers who are black (or other minority) have stayed with the Democratic Party, but middle class white baby boomers are the people who have left the Democrats for the GOP. The GOP offer them "Good Times" at No Cost, just like in the 1920s. I fear it will take another 1930s to convince these Baby Boomers (and their Children) that the GOP is lieing, just like their parents (and Grandparents) learned in the 1930s.

[The Lone Liberal]

20. Actually

The 80% of the workforce's wages declined 6% during the period 1973 through 1998. The majority knows this, they know that their wife must work just to make ends meet. So it is not the privileged that is making more than $75k annually. The median household income (that is income from all sources) is only 445,000 for the majority.

The majority is neither college educated supervisory white collar.

[MiltonLeBerle]

17. Some people gained a little affluence, others are disenfranchised.

When both parents have jobs, and the kids to get to/from school, who has time to vote? It's not like it does anything to change anything anyway.

[MiltonLeBerle]

18. Some people gained a little affluence, others are disenfranchised.

When both parents have jobs, and the kids to get to/from school, who has time to vote? It's not like it does anything to change anything anyway.

[Dob Bole]

22. FDR voters died

and Boomers became more conservative. I don't know why they're more conservative, but they are. And there are a lot of them. They were born during a "boom."

[greatauntoftriplets]

23. I am a boomer and move farther left by the day.

n/t

[jiacinto]

26. The loss of white voters

That is probably a lot of it, but more specifically I would say it is most likely the loss of voters in this category:

The non-union white working/middle class

That is where I would put a lot of the loss that the party has suffered from. I have said this before:

These Americans believe that while the Republicans may offer them little, the Democrats offer them little but higher taxes. They feel that the Democrats offer them little in return for the tax dollars they pay to the government on their limited incomes. Furthermore they believe that the Democratic Party, post-1968, doesn't respect mainstream values.

These are the voters working in secretarial jobs, low end white collar jobs, service sector jobs, and other jobs. They are the ones who play by the rules and don't seem to get anything back. They pay taxes and get little services in return. No one speaks about their needs.

They are different from the "soccer mom" in the sense that they don't live in the upscale suburban neighborhoods where those others voters exist. But they are a key block that has turned against the Democratic Party since the late 1960s.

[agincourt]

29. Wasn't there though?

a statistic somewhere, that for whites who make under 35k, more votes for Gore in 2000?

[jiacinto]

31. Read the book

"Why the White Working Class Still Matters"

It addresses this issue.

[agincourt]

28. I hate to say this,

but a lot of it is the GOPees ability to make religion, abortion , guns and the death penalty work for them. Economic justice just isn't on the front burner like it should be. Many people from semi-diverse backgrounds vote on those four issues while they get robbed. I've seen otherwise fairly sensible people vote repig just because they literally think abortion is comparable to the Nazi holocaust.
We haven't been able to diffuse these lower priority issues and put class warfare out in front where it should be. It's like so much of the constituency is ignorant of how class warfare politics affects them.

[ewagner]

32. to expand a little bit

What you are really pointing to is that Repubs have been able to frame the debate and force us to be on the defensive. The repubs have defined us in the negative to capture the otherwise uncommitted.

We need to frame the debate.

We need to set the agenda for a new and better life for those uncommitted.

btw...good post (IMHO)