Can we lose in 04 if we win Florida?

[ryharrin]

I'm thinking Dean/Graham would be great, and would make Florida very, very attainable. What states could we lose that would make us still lose the electoral college even if we have florida? I mean, what states that Gore won are the most likely to go to shrub?

[Dob Bole]

1. Bush is hitting Pennsylvania hard...

It has about the same number of electoral votes as Florida, and he has visited there about 13 times since 9-11. He REALLY wants to win that state, so be on guard. He has:

Held the 2000 Rep convention there (but lost the state anyway)
Appointed the governor Tom Ridge to Dept. of Homeland Security
Emphasized social issues such as gay marriage (people in Pennsylvania are typically socially conservative and fiscally liberal, like southern Blacks)

The good news:

The "fiscally liberal" aspect is more likely to be emphasized during hard economic times. But be warned that he is really going to try hard.

[ButterflyBlood]

3. He's going to have one hell of a time getting PA

for two reasons. First is PA has the highest vet population in the country. He hasn't been too kind to them. Second is there are many union workers. And he cuts their overtime pay. My ultra-liberal aunt is the leader of a union and informed my mom of this, and you can bet the unions there will be letting their workers know who's to blame.

[expatriot]

4. I think if we push the labor and worker issues we will be strong in WV...

and we can even make Bush fight for North Carolina... with the textile industry packing up and going over seas.

[expatriot]

2. as long as we can get MI and PA....

If can get MI and PA and FL we will win it.

Assuming that we don't bleed away some bastions, like IA and WI, they were both too close for comfort but it should be safer for us now without Nader being a real factor.

[Gore1FL]

5. look for OHIO

If the Dems wint Ohio, it will not bode well for the GOP.

[ryharrin]

7. Yeah, I've been thinking that Ohio should be fought for.

And hard. I never realized how big of a state it is.

[Gore1FL]

11. Gore gave up on Ohio

and it was close anyways. Republicans have not won a recent election without Ohio.

The electoral votes are obvioulsy an issue, but the state is fairly indicative of a chunk of the country.

[peabody71]

6. Florida, California, Texas, and New York is all that matters.

California= Dem
New York= Dem

Texas= Repug

Florida= Jeb Bush

[expatriot]

8. Here is my take....

Here are the states that we won in 2000 that we will have to fight to keep: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa and perhaps Oregon.

Here are the states that were not ours in 2000 that we should run a hard offense on: Florida(it was ours in 2000, i know) Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and Missouri.

[Lauren2882]

9. New Mexico

... is another state that we're going to have to fight to keep. Gore only got about 400 more votes than Bush there in 2000.

http://fecweb1.fec.gov/pubrec/2000presgeresults.htm

[tedoll78]

10. I LOVE a Dean-Graham ticket.

Take the Gore states. Lock them down early (I hope the nomination is over ASAP).

Force Bush to defend: Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Nevada, West Virginia, New Hampshire. Release fake polls showing Dean barely ahead or tied in them; it may be a tad unethical, but it's perfectly legal and it fires-up the Dem troops in these states.

Practically live in these states in the last two weeks: PA/MI/FL/MN/OH.

For these five states:
1) Mention situations specific to each of them in the nomination speech so that their residents know we're thinking of them.
2) Seek to suppress GOP turnout with billboards in rural areas touting how "liberal" bush has been on certain issues (praise for the affirmative action ruling, nomination of a gay ambassador, not fighting immigration from Mexico, non-military spending). Go door-to-door in Democratic strongholds with absentee ballots. If we get voters to vote early, the lines on election day are shorter, we have more of a paper trail, and we pick-up those unlikely to show-up to the polls. 5% more turnout makes a BIG difference.
3) Run a different ad in newspapers across each state detailing how Bush fails and how a Dean-Graham will work. Tailor the message to each paper's region. This is a cheap and effective strategy; a new message twice a week gets attention all by itself.
4) Early on, encourage wealthy Democrats to move to these states (esp FL and OH), even if it's temporary. Example: A Democrat moving from hopeless Utah to one of these has more of a chance of helping defeat Bush.

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Ross Perot ran very effective infomercials. So effective, in fact, that he ran the lead for a while in 1992. His deficit, job, and economy charts may have seemed cheesy, but they were effective. Run an infomercial on Monday night, November 1, 2004. As many as 10% of voters are undecided, and this might be the nudge into our corner that tips the scales.

With a Dean-Graham infomercial, there are certain key advantages.
1) First, we control the message. We paint a positive tone and present a clear and hopeful future for America.
2) No pundits getting in the way. Usually after a big campaign event, the talking heads come on and tell viewers how to feel about what they just saw. With an infomercial squeezed between programs, viewers get to watch and then decide for themselves how they feel.
3) Bush gets his convention bounce after we get ours. To be honest, this scares the holy shit out of me because the ticket who gets "the last word" usually wins. Dukakais was ahead by 20% after his convention, and then Poppa Bush had his and wiped it out. The Chimp had his convention and was up by about 15%, but Gore's bounce brought the race to a tie. If our convention bounce ties us at least and gives us at most a 10% lead, Bush's bounce could put us away. But an infomercial could be how we get "the last word" with the voters. Just like Perot experienced mini-bounces after his infomercials, they could work their magic for the Dean-Graham ticket.

If we do anything - GOTV, GOP vote suppression, local paper ads - do the infomercials first. They're proven to work. This all put-together is how a Dean-Graham ticket wins.

[liberalnurse]

12. I sense that is where Dean is headed....

Dean has left 2 clues that I picked up on. The first one was during the first democratic debate....He said it in a flirt-joking fashion toward the end of the debate and directed his comment to Graham....2nd episode was tonight on Larry King. He defined his VP expectations as a "Washington Insider" ans such which fits Graham.

Dean/Graham 2004 sounds good to me....