Are Repubs concerned that they may lose the House and Senate?

[kentuck]

If so, how will they react to that possibility in the next few months? Will they try to get another tax giveaway passed for their friends before they hand the baton (or bomb) to the Democrats? What special interest will they try to pass if they feel their days are numbered?

Will they lose the House or Senate? A few months ago, most folks would have said "no way". However, Bush is not inspiring a lot Repubs to the polls at this time. It may change between now and November, but I doubt it. If their turnout is below par and the Democrats have a good turnout, I could envision a Democratic House and Senate. Contrary to the belief of some folks that they have gerrymandered the districts to the point where they guarantee a Repub victory, that is predicated on the belief that the Repubs in those districts will go to the polls. If they don't vote, it doesn't matter how much of an advantage they have in their newly-drawn districts. In my opinion, the Repubs are becoming more and more apprehensive about the November elections as each and every day passes.

[unblock]

1. the senate is a remote possibility

but democrats will not have a shot at taking the house unless cheney is getting impeached, and even then it's against the odds.

[coloradodem2005]

2. My realistic scenario.

Bush will loose to Kerry. We will most likely take the Senate back, and although we will make gains in the house, we will not get it back in 2004. Maybe in 2006.

[kentuck]

3. It is not unusual to see 75-100 seats change in the House....

And I do not believe that the Repubs have permanently changed the districts to the point where they are that different from elections in the past. Just my opinion.

[PATRICK]

11. The real skew

Yes the GOP could take that number of seats as we have seen in the recent past, because the media and the debate has been so slanted their way. The Dems are breaking down the wall that would let happen for them, but it has grown more formidable in every way since the Gingrich Contract on America fiasco.

Media, gerrymandering, Dem candidates and posture, money corruption of elections, public general perception poisoned both ways against Dems getting even a fair chance against the other factors, the wall of lies and confusion, the one way tar street and the fighting back penalty. Let's not forget Diebold and other "election by other means" BFEE strategies. Discouragement and apathy of masses of voters is the fallback position. October surprises the media is practicing to be surprised by.

That and more has to be overcome just to get back to "Go". However, yes, they are always afraid because all that repression, all those lies can backfire, should backfire and they feel it constantly. No minority tyranny ever sits comfortably. They will lash out without reason and increase oppression daily because of it.

Dean is a promise and a warning. You can assault and make headway, but you can fall terribly, suddenly and fatally short. Recapturing democracy in America will not be as easy as Kerry's coattails, but a real meltdown of the whole other side and a real Dem party capturing the spirit of the the electorate.

[snippy]

12. That is incorrect.

In 1994 republicans gained 52 seats in the House.

In 1974 democrats gained 49 seats in the House.

http://www.nd.edu/~observer/11152002/Viewpoint/4.html

These two elections were historic landslides. I do not think that 75 seats have ever been gained in the House by either party in one election.

[drumwolf]

4. Which particular seats in the Senate do you see us taking back?

At least part of the reason the GOP has made inroads into both houses over the last few years is that the Southern states and districts which used to be solidly Democratic are now turning solidly Republican, not because they're getting any more conservative but because the Dems and GOP are more clearly establishing themselves as the more liberal and conservative parties respectively.

So I don't see us regaining the seats we had in the South. Are you talking about swing districts then? (Like Maryland, for example, or Florida?)

[coloradodem2005]

5. There is the Senate seat in my state.

With Salazar as the potential nominee, we have a good chance here.

[kentuck]

6. I think this will be one of those elections with a few surprises....

And 3 or 4 Senators may lose that are not even on the screen at this moment. It's an unpredictable electorate and nobody knows what will happen when the voters are in such a mood.

[terrya]

7. We'll take back the GOP seat in here in Illinois.

Barack Obama is the odds on favorite to win this.

Terry

[displacedtexan]

8. How many of those "solid repub" districts are bleeding jobs?

If repubs put of work still vote repub, we should check their water supply.

[Padraig18]

10. IL will be a Democratic pickup, almost certainly.

The Repub incumbent is retiring, and the Democratic nominee, State Sen. Barak Obama, is the odds-on favorite to win the seat.:)

[eyeontheprize]

13. Do you consider Oklahoma southern?

The Democrats have a very good chance there.

[drumwolf]

14. Which Oklahoma GOP senator would they be replacing?

Is it Inhofe? God, I hope so. He doesn't have the power or public profile that Tom DeLay has but he's every bit as extremist and nasty.

[Woodstock]

15. Maryland isn't swing

We go Democratic.

Two strong Democratic Senators who have served since time immemorial.

Registered Voters:

Republican: 30%
Democratic: 57%
Others: 13%

[cornfedyank]

9. not unless John Kerry can be inspirational

if JFK inspires the people with this job creating, independent, long term energy plan he can start a snowball down the hill. but if he just offers the same old rhetoric, we will be fortune just to oust the pres.