China's Army On Combat Alert

[0rion]

In response to the disputed presidential election in Taiwan, China's army went over to combat alert on Saturday (Reuters). If Taiwan is unable to resolve the dispute in an orderly fashion, Beijing officials have hinted at military intervention. The South China Morning Post is reporting, as of Wednesday, that Taiwan's election recount deal has collapsed. Violence has been reported between opposition protestors and Taiwan's police. This crisis offers the communists a possible rationale for exercising Beijing's declared sovereignty over Taiwan.

China's Army On Combat Alert

[DarkPhenyx]

1. Well...

...here we go people.

Bet on if Bush will be stupid enough to step in and attempt to defend Taiwan?

[mouse7]

22. Nope. China doesn't have ships to get troops to Taiwan.

China is completely unequipped to conduct amphibious landings on the island of Taiwan. They've been slowly been trying to increase that equipment in the last couple of years, but it will be decades before China has the amphib. capicity for a successful invasion of Taiwan. What airborne infantry China has would be annihilated immediately upon landing. Taiwan has some serious firepower on that little island.

This is bluster. Nothing more.

[Muddleoftheroad]

2. The daily bluster

The Chinese lack the ability to intervene in a big way and lack the willingness to risk nuclear war. (To intervene, read invade, they need to put a whole ton of troops across the straits fast. They can't.)

[TheFarseer]

3. I'm glad we set the pre-emtion precident

China is almost as justified invading Taiwan as we are invading Iraq and I'm sure alot of people would say they are more justified.

[Renew Deal]

4. A China invasion would be a very bad thing.

We promised to protect Tiawan. How are we going to do that now. China has free reign and there is nothing we can do about it. I think this time is as good as any for China to make a move.

[Vickers]

5. Well geez, we'll just move those guys from Iraq/Afghanistan to Taiwan

They can rest all they want on the troop transports on the way over there!

Love,

George W. Bush

[Muddleoftheroad]

8. You don't need troops for that battle

Air Force and Navy. Those we still have somewhere.

[puerco-bellies]

6. This is their best opportunity since WWII

The U.S. military is bogged down in the M.E., fatigue in the active duty ground troops, lack of fresh reserves, scarce transport assets, and the basic materials for war are being suck up in Iraq. If we are to defend Taiwan against an invasion it will fall squarely on the shoulders of the U.S. Navy and to a lesser degree the U.S. Air Force to stop them in the waters of the Taiwan Straight.

[ThomWV]

12. Ground Forces Would Be Meaningless - ICBM

Our ground forces would be moot. Where are they going to go? Korea? This would be a matter of straight to nukes.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

20. Based on what I've seen so far of the NeoCon Junta...

...I don't think they will lift a finger to stop China.

[TankLV]

42. It won't even reach that far. Think nuclear.

Bunkerboy would have no choice but to capitulate and agree to a Chinese takeover, or we go nuclear war.

Neither scenerio is comforting.

[mouse7]

45. Clinton fixed this problem - sold Taiwan our best defensive systems

China would be as successful against Taiwan right now as Iraq was against the US military during the actual invasion. Chinese technology is more than 2 decades behind ours. No chinese aircft will get close to Taiwan skies, and Harppon missiles will send every ship China sends to the bottom of the Formosa Strait.

Clinton was incredibly sly on this situation. The world doesn't bitch about defensive weapon systems to a country, so Clinton armed Taiwan to the teeth with our best anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles.

China has no chance to sucessfully invade Taiwan for at least a couple of decades.

[TankLV]

41. bush* will fold like he always does.

He will have brought the ultimate screw-up to the world stage.

Remember his apology/non-apology stunt?

To have his idiot on the button is a major worry for the entire planet.

Another reason to fear for the future.

I just hope we have enought time to repair all the damage when Kerry moves in to OUR White House.

If bunkerboy manages to steal another one, we should prepare for the worst.

Maybe America will be like the Russia circa 1917 in that we will manage to rise up and pull ourselves out of illegal wars.

We are at a great turning point in history.

Do we retreat to the safe side or go over the cliff?

[strategery blunder]

7. I feel really sorry for the people of Taiwan right now

In China, there probably isn't nearly as much political pressure to minimize civilian casualties as there is here in the US.

Taipei would probably be bombed out a la Dresden, if not nuked.

[Muddleoftheroad]

9. They wouldn't nuke what they consider their own soil

And if they did use nukes, many would head back to China and they don't risk that.

Boy, who ever knew DU had such bad poker players.

[strategery blunder]

14. Point taken, but they might still firebomb it

and I don't play poker at all

[Muddleoftheroad]

48. That few here play poker is obvious

When you don't have a good hand, you bluff.

That's what China is doing right now.

[ThomWV]

10. Do You Realize How Serious This Is?

Were China to step in we would be forced to defend Tiwan. Bush is fucking stupid enough to go nuclear.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

19. Those are my thoughts also.

[mouse7]

23. It is theoretically impossible for China to invade Taiwan.

Cannot happen. What few troops China got on the beach with China's limited naval capacity would be annihialated on the beaches.

This was one situation a massive weapon sale made sense. We sold Taiwan AEGIS guided-missle destroyers, equipped with harpoons. Taiwan could sink whatever invasion fleet China could scrape together before it got halfway across the strait.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

38. I think you may be missing the idea that without U. S. air and naval...

...support, most of which is tied up in the Middle East, Taiwan is pretty exposed. We no longer have the capability to fight two wars at a time.

If I were China, I would reduce Taiwan's defenses with a fairly lengthy air campaign and then land troops to mop up the survivors.

[mouse7]

44. No, I'm not. Taiwan would obliterate a Chinese invasion attempt

Taiwan has purchased massive US air defenses and Aegis guided missile destroyers.

A Chinese air attack would get knocked out of the sky before it got over the Taiwan coast. A thrown together Chinese invasion fleet wouldn't make it halfway to Taiwan before getting sunk by Harpoon missiles from the AEGIS destroyers.

The Chinese Air Force is 25-30 year behind the electronics in the anti-aircraft systems we sold Taiwan. It would be a Formosa Strait Turkey Shoot, just like what the US Navy did to the Japanese in the Marianas

[Media_Lies_Daily]

61. And what kind of comparative numbers are we talking here?...

How big is Taiwan's defense force? How big of an invasion force would China be willing to throw at Taiwan?

I seem to have read some place that our Army was much more advanced than the Chinese Army in 1950...somebody forgot to tell the Chinese.

[juajen]

59. Ya'll are missing the big deterrent

We just threaten to keep Wal-Mart from importing from China. That'll stop 'em. I believe this hand is mine.

[Muddleoftheroad]

49. That should eliminate even a theoretical invasion

Right there.

It's all bluster.

[moondust]

58. Bushco wouldn't do much.

I doubt the corporatists would allow the U.S. gov't to endanger their Chinese investments/slave labor markets and dreams of having billions of customers there someday. China can probably get away with just about anything now without serious consequences. Big profits trump everything including freedom. :puke:

[x-g.o.p.er]

11. I don't see China acting...

THey have very poor troop transport capability across the strait. Taiwan has been supplied militarily by the US for years, and could adequately defend herself. It would buy enough time to get US troops over there (from Korea, maybe) to re-inforce the island. Or God Forbid, lob some nukes onto the Chinese mainland.

What a mess. Now watch Kim Jong-Il start rattling his saber, too.

[pres2032]

13. what about europe?

if China does invade Taiwan, what do you think the possibility is of Europen countries coming to its aid? such as Britain or even Germany? those are prob the only two countries, besides the US, which could fight the chinese and have a snowball's chance in hell of surviving. Or they could at least hold them off until the US navy and air force is mobilized. We could even call on Russia to attack China as well.
either way, i see a chinese invasion of taiwan becoming world war 3 (or 5, if you count the french and indian war and the cold war)

:scared:

[Old and In the Way]

39. I extremely doubt that Germany would entangle itself.

Obviously, Britain has a large colony in Hong Kong and Shanghai, but I doubt that they'd try to do anything but help get British nationals out.

We do have a formidable presence in Southern China. We have a military pact with Taiwan, but I think we'd try to diffuse the situation on both sides.

But I stil don't see any upside to China moving against Taiwan (or vice-versa). No way would they try to invade. A missle attack will only come back at them in spades. The bottom line, both Taiwan and China would have way too much to lose and not a whole lot to gain from starting a war.

Of course, in this escalating climate of hostilities, a 9/11 type event could trigger devastating events. There's only a 90 mile gap between them and if an "event" occurred, it could be easily get out of control. That's really the only way that I see military actions happening.

[solinvictus]

15. China

We should have let the Soviets use a nuclear first strike when they wanted to in the late 1960's. Then, we wouldn't have this worry.

On edit: Damn, I forgot this was my 1,000th post!!!

[tkmorris]

16. Correct me here

Did you just advocate vaporizing millions of people based upon the crime of having a government you don't like?

Happy Thousandth :)

[solinvictus]

31. Yep

Because it's a calculated risk. Hate to be cold about it, but they'd immediately do the same to us over Taiwan if they had nuclear superiority. Remember in 1996 when Jiang Zemin rhetorically asked if the US valued LA more than Tapei? You can embrace this "we are the world" perspective all you like, but the reality is that the current Chinese regime has an agressive geo-political agenda that it will implement once it achieves a tactical advantage. Thank goodness their overall defense technology is poor. Let's hope it stays that way. I don't favor the civil population taking the brunt of the attack, but even then, I'm certain the Chinese rulers have calculated out the acceptable loss percentages of their own people. I don't bear any particular animosity toward China, but Taiwan is a sovereign nation, not a renegade province. Culturally, Formosa has been closer to Japan than to China and they've little interest in the mainland. China wants Taiwan for it's advanced infrastructure and strategic position in the regions oceans.

[Old and In the Way]

18. Spoken like a freeper.

Yeah, the solution is a holocaust so you can worry less.

[solinvictus]

32. Holocaust

Again, the same thing that China would do to us if it was in their national interest.

[Old and In the Way]

37. Really, when was the last war that China started?

They'd be justified to hate the Japenese, but I just don't see it in their culture.

I was in China when we "accidently" bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 98....I saw no evidence of any hostility to America/Americans then.

Really, China has plenty of internal problems dealing with rising expectations. And this country spends 1/20 of what we spend annually on defense. Not sure where you get your information from, but the only thing the people in China really care about these days is making money...

[Old and In the Way]

17. China will not invade Taiwan.

This is political posturing. China would lose far more than it would gain, both internally and externally. Taiwan is China; to bomb Taiwan would be to bomb the people of China. They may have a different political system, but it is the same people.

Besides, Taiwan could wreck some serious havoc on China. No way would the PRC have it's way in Taiwan without taking some significant, perhaps lethal blows.

Ain't going to happen.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

21. I bet quite a few people thought we wouldn't invade Iraq, either...

...who really knows when you're dealing with an issue as volatile as the China-Taiwan question?

[Old and In the Way]

24. True, anything is possible.....I just don't believe it is probable.

A move to invade would be the equivalent of shooting both feet and then turning the gun on it's head. The PRC would lose so much more than it would gain as to be completely improbable.

[oneighty]

33. Hey Old and In The Way!

You travel frequentlty to China don't you?

180

[Old and In the Way]

36. Only 1 or 2x a year.

But I am amazed at the physical changes every time I go....it boggles my mind to see the scale of humanity and industrialization that is going on in Southern China.

[NewJeffCT]

26. That is true, BUT

And, it is a big but... the Chinese people generally tend to have a much better long term view of things than Americans and are more patient politically. Look at how much the country has changed since Tiannemen Square - we had the American Revolution, but they are having an evolution there.

[puerco-bellies]

25. Free Taiwan..

I disagree, a free Taiwan is a dagger (At the very least a bone in the throat) turned back at the mainland. It gives hope to internal dissidents and supporters of a free China. Taiwan also acts like the equivalent of England during WWII, a unsinkable aircraft carrier and troop forward staging area, preventing or at least guarding against China's long term desire of controlling it's "sphere" of influence. Namely East Asia.

[Old and In the Way]

27. I suspect that, in 20 years, China will dwarf Taiwan's economy.

You're talking a small island with maybe 70MM people vs. A continent with 1.3BB people. If there is a threat to Taiwan, it's becoming overly dependent on and/or economically absorbed by China.

Interesting to see that Taiwan is rapidly integrating it's businesses into China. Lot of Taiwanese investment (as well as Korea and japan). Personally, I don't get why Taiwan is such a focus of the PRC. If they were smart, they'd let Taiwan be Taiwan and keep encouraging Taiwan's investment in the PRC.

[puerco-bellies]

29. The leaders of the mainland fear the Taiwanese..

Because they know their own history. The long march, when the communists were facing certain defeat is a part of their political iconography. A mere 100,000 remaining communists started on the infamous "Long March" of which over 90% died. the remaining 8,000 or so went on to conquer a nation of at least 50,000,000 to 70,000,000 (my guess of China's population in 1934/35). It is not numbers they fear. Their history teaches them that a small number can overcome great odds

[Old and In the Way]

34. Conquered?

The Nationalists chased the Communists for what 2,000 miles? And they were ultimately run out of China in 1949. BTW, the native Taiwanese don't have a whole lot of love loss for the Nationalist conquerers who abrogated their lands and wealth.

Frankly, I find the Taiwanese a bit too nationalistic and arrogant as compared to the Chinese. Just, me, though.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

28. Invading Taiwan would be incredibly stupid

aside from the fact that the Taiwanese are very well-armed.

Taiwan invests probably billions in the Chinese economy, and Taiwanese tourists were all over the place there even fourteen years ago, when I went to China.

Even an unsuccessful attack would infuriate the Taiwanese, who could retaliate by withdrawing all their investment. A successful attack would leave Taiwan in ruins, and subduing the place would not come cheaply.

It would truly be a matter of killing the goose that laid the golden eggs.

Today's Chinese leaders are greedy old buzzards, and I hope their avarice overcomes their military posturing.

[0rion]

30. China could always resort to bombing Taiwan....

egg Taiwan to retaliate in some way, then escalating.

[Old and In the Way]

35. Still suicide.

MAD concept if there ever was one. As LL says, no ones gonna destroy the golden geese.... :-)

[puerco-bellies]

43. IMHO

You underestimate the enormity of mainland Chinese industrial capacity. True they lack deep reserves of "hard currencies" but this is offset by their incredible manufacturing infrastructure and exploding economy.

I am a series 3 broker (commodities) and it is widely accepted by as far as I know all industry analysts that the manufacturing sector of the Chinese economy is helping to drive the bull markets in commodities in general and the metals like copper in particular, and is paying for their consumption of a large chunk of the worlds production of grains from corn, wheat, soybeans, meal, and palm oil and the like. They are no longer subsistence players.

They are a "Golden Goose" of their own right, and if they destroyed Taiwan's industrial base it would not even register as more then a downward tic or two in a chart of their economic growth. Hell if it came to that they would swarm over the smoldering rubble and strip every ounce of usable scrape down to the last inch of copper wire.

They need to secure their dominance in Asian backyard before they can move on to their most pressing strategic need.. oil, and lots of it.

[Old and In the Way]

46. You misunderstand me.

Read my other posts on this thread. I've been going to mainland China since the late 80's...the transformation I've seen there is mind-boggling.

I totally agree with the emerging strength of China. And I beleive that China will be the dominant economic engine in the world in 20 years. I'm very much familiar with the industrialization in So. China.

The recent run-up in metals, I'm told, is because China is literally remaking Beijing for the 2008 Olympics.

And oil is their primary chokepoint. I have no doubt that our intervention into Iraq was to control the oil and thereby control China's strategic options.

[puerco-bellies]

51. I have..

Read your posts with a great deal of respect and interest. I do not think that China's consumption of metals is on such a massive scale can be merely confined to remaking a single city, but I feel you're more in the loop to what's happening over there then me.

I don't think Iraq was with China in mind. I do think that Afghanistan was. It fits into my interpretations of MIHOP, the hows and whys.

I for one am sure that pipelines from central Asia's vast oil and gas reserves over the Himalayans, and across the Gobi Desert dance in the dreams of China's strategic planners. Those very same fields, and denial of them to China dance like sirens in the dreams of the PNAC'ers as well. And these dreams are the coin that brought us the human disaster that is * and his minions.

[yltlatl]

54. I think Iraq WAS w/ China In Mind

As well as Europe and Russia. You can't tell me that grabbing the world's second largest reserves of oil is not strategic pre-emption.

[puerco-bellies]

56. I can't tell you that.

I agree with you concerning Europe and Russia. The lines of communication with both those regions are short and pre-existing. In order to maintain those same lines of communications (I mean the ability to transport the oil or natural gas) to China, especially during conflicts would be very difficult and a huge drain of resources on a military campaign. China would be more likely to concentrate on a more easily accessible and more importantly defensible source of energy for the coming crunch. That source is central Asia.

[mouse7]

47. China DOES NOT have an invasion fleet.

China doesn't even have anything that could hum a few bars and fake an invasion fleet. It doesn't matter how much industry or how big the Chinese Army is. They don't have the amphibious capability to move any of it across the strait to Taiwan.

Germany had England dead to rights in 1940. Didn't matter. Germany couldn't get all those panzer divisions across the English Channel.

[puerco-bellies]

53. The allies..

The British did not have a amphibious fleet at the ready to assist the evacuation of Dunkirk but it was accomplished anyway. I know that this is not a good analogy, but letting a "thousand flowers bloom", another words thousands even tens of thousands of small boats transport assault troops across the Taiwan straight would be harder to stop then a well protected fleet of hundreds of tightly packed troop transports and landing craft.
I'm not saying that this is imminent, but I do think that this is possible, and under a concerted aerial assault using bombers and tactical missile and rocket saturation for cover, definitely within Chinese capabilities, it could work.

[mouse7]

60. That's sheer lunacy.

The troops wouldn't have anything other than rifles for equipment. You cannot win on a modern mechanized battlefield with no mechanisms. Do you know what miniguns do to infantry without armor support?

Ever heard of The Battle of Verdun. Think that scale of losses. That what happens when human beings are ordered into machine-gun fire.

[Merlin]

40. This is for China's domestic consumption only.

They have maintained a steady drumbeat of propaganda in China about Taiwan for decades. The average Chinese believes this is one thing they are willing to go to war over.

But China has way too much to lose. Cooler heads will prevail, imo. This is merely red meat to placate their masses.

[w4rma]

50. The folks in charge of China are as crazy as freepers, imho. Beware. (nt)

[PretzelWarrior]

52. you may see a china invasion here.

they have that as a number one priority over there in Beijing. It would be a major coup for any Chinese leader able to make it happen. You would see the U.S. back off because those Taiwanese factories would continue to churn but at a regulated rate governed by a country with no qualms about selling prisoner's organs and forcing political dissedents to make plastic goods in prisons for years.

This is a win-win for the U.S. and China. They can't really say China has no right to do so. They can say they are pre-empting the evil aims of Taiwanese separatists and terrorists.

Goodbye democratic Hong Kong, Macao, and now Taiwan.

[yltlatl]

55. There's one question....

that if answered would go a long way toward addressing a lot of the speculation in this thread.

Whenever they bluster, do they put their Army on combat alert? Anyone know?

[puerco-bellies]

57. Very insightful

I think a good period to look at for answers would be when they made a "punitive" strike against Vietnam in 1979(and got their asses chewed). Anybody know how and if they telegraphed their intentions back then?