CNN Reveals New Poll Numbers on Clarke/Bush Credibility

[VolcanoJen]

Just announced by "I Love Candy" Crowley. I'll update this thread with the hard numbers when they appear.

Latest 4:04 pm edit - to add New Questions from CNN Poll

Stay tuned!

On Edit:

THE NUMBERS: (per onscreen Tivo; no link yet)

CNN USA Today Gallup Poll - March 26-28, 2004

More likely to believe...

Bush Administration: 46%
Richard Clarke: 44%

More likely to believe BREAKDOWN (emphasis is mine; take a look at the independent voter swing

Bush Administration:
Republicans: 83%
Independents: 36%
Democrats: 13%

Richard Clarke:
Republicans: 11%
Independents: 51%
Democrats: 76%

Was War in Iraq Part of the War on Terrorism?

Yes: 50%
No: 48%

Likely Voters' Choice For President:

Bush:
March 5-7 44%
NOW 51%

Kerry:
March 5-7 52%
NOW 47%

Opinion of John Kerry

Favorable:
February 60%
NOW 53%

Unfavorable:
Februrary 26%
NOW 36%

MORE Questions from the CNN Poll - 4:00 hour

THIS FIRST QUESTION IS HUGE

Is Bush Administration Covering Up Something About 9/11 Intelligence?

Yes: 53%
No: 41%

Trust More on Sending Troops Into War

Bush: 52%
Kerry 41%

Bill Schneider seems to think Clarke has taken a toll on Kerry. I would wager that the Bush Ad Buy took the toll... and don't forget, DUers... this story is far from finished. Take heart in the independent voters' feelings on this issue, too. Poor, poor analysis from Bill Schneider, imo. And, please read my post #21... Be Patient!!! The tide is turning. Not as quickly as we would prefer, but it's turning...

[leftchick]

1. oooo you bad Jen.....

"I Love Candy" Crowley... ROFL :)

[VolcanoJen]

9. I'm must sayin', is all....

;-)

[joefree1]

2. I say Bushco is their own worst enemy

Stand back and watch this unfold.




Images of the March 21 protest in Los Angeles here:
http://ediablo.com/LAprotest3-21-04.html

[grasswire]

3. 46 bush, 44 clarke

that's what it shows

[Media_Lies_Daily]

52. The real question is "Who did they poll to get data like this?".

[grasswire]

4. OMG

"NO evidence of damage to Bush. This has damaged Kerry."

[Blasphemer]

7. They are so full of crap...

Kerry has nothing to do with it. Clearly, if independents are more likely to believe Clarke it's hurting Bush. Idiots!

[Goldmund]

8. Which champ said that?

[Tactical Progressive]

15. Bill Schneider

He and Candy Crowley were very excited, and it turned Candy's face from the dour dread she opened the segment with to one of smiling relief.

They'll keep pushing it this way for as long as they can, but I think the sand is washing away from under their feet. CNN will be heartbroken if Bush loses.

[calimary]

38. Guys, one thing more to consider...

and it's troublesome, at least to me, did you note what Leslie Stahl said last night at the end of "60 Minutes"? The emails/letters they read, reacting to Clarke, were 3-1 AGAINST Clarke.

Did the latest round of bush commercials REALLY have that strong a punch? Stronger than Clarke's? Or is it that people are clamoring back to bush because they're still desperate to believe, and clinging to their old, wrong-headed views rather than submit, at long last, to the light?

I AM confused. Granted, this is late March, which I was saying last week when I smelled "blood" in the figurative or metaphorical sense. But I CANNOT say it doesn't worry me greatly. About the only REALLY good thing I saw was in the switch of the self-proclaimed independent voters. THAT was good. Everything else was, well...

...surprisingly disheartening is how I'd put it.

[SemperEadem]

43. well, the first reaction any human has to the death of anything important

or to anything this disruptively destructive is to deny, deny, deny... it's all part of the shock phenomenon.

The death of their ideals, the death of their blind complicity in Bush's intent cannot be anything but a shock to them... so they will reach for the first human emotion hardwired into all of us: disbelieve that it is happening and then to vilify the one who brought enlightenment to them.... the same was done to Jesus, why would it be different to Clarke? Clarke is our nation's savior right now, and the neocon/refuqlicans/freepers would rather crucify Clarke and bring this nation to ruin than to believe his message...

The Jesus they claim they serve and worship could speak to this treatment personally...

[tom_paine]

16. Just doin' their Pravda thing

"Comrade Stalin is undamaged by the Trotslky Affair. All reliable polls show that the Soviet Citizenry is as well-beloved of Comrade Stalin as they ever have been."

[Leilani]

5. New numbers on Kerry/Bush

Negative ads are working

[grasswire]

6. unbelievable..

...they're mixing the Kerry-Bush campaign in with the Bush-Clarke matters. Mixing it all up in the minds of the viewers.

[berner59]

11. gee thanks CNN et al...

...nothing like helping to cloud the issues... Just wait for the debates...

[leftchick]

19. exactly grasswire, making it a pile of

undefineable mush.... :grr:

[rumguy]

20. I know what fucking basis is there for that?

it makes no sense...

[SemperEadem]

46. How does one go about getting a job writing and producing

political ads? Jeez!!! I would love to produce ads to trounce this!!!!

[kaitykaity]

10. Good news, thanks for

posting.

:hi:

[dbt]

12. CNN/USA Today/Gallup, eh?

CNN = no credibility.
USA Today = no credibility.
Gallup = formerly credible, until they hooked up with these ho's.

The only poll that I come close to trusting these days is Zogby. I'll wait.

:evilgrin:
dbt

[Beetwasher]

13. I Gotta Think This Poll is Nothing But Propoganda

It flies in the face of other polls I've seen.

This is ridiculous:

Likely Voters' Choice For President:

Bush:
March 5-7 44%
NOW 51%

Kerry:

March 5-7 52%
NOW 47%

Gallup is not credible anymore, at all and hasn't been for a while.

This in contrast to the latest Newsweek poll among others:

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=4689886&pageNumber=0

[buff2]

23. The way it looks in that poll

Likely Voters' Choice For President:

Bush:
March 5-7 44%
NOW 51%


The more lies bu$h tells and the sleazier personal attacks he uses on innocent people the higher his numbers go up. Nothing makes sense anymore.

[Beetwasher]

28. Gallup Is Rotten to the Core

They are nothig but a propoganda arm of the WH. See my link to another post I wrote about Gallup's suspect methodology and polling practices.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=534560

[buff2]

32. :o(

"They are nothig but a propoganda arm of the WH."

Aren't they ALL? I think it's a shame what we have to put up with.

[Beetwasher]

36. Some More Than Others But Gallup is Easily the Worst

I firmly believe that they really have zero credibility now. For the most part I see polls as bellweathers, to be taken in conjunction with other data and they point to overall trends. But Gallup has been consistently out of sync with other polls and this happens over and over again and ALWAYS in the favor of the WH. It's no accident.

[West Coast Democrat]

14. 51-47? That's within the margin of error

And remember that Gallup always gives Bush at least 5pts over realistic numbers...they usually had Bush 5-10pt over Gore in October 2000.

[tamdon29]

26. Why is Kerry down in the polls?

This poll has me worried. How is Bush gaining with this scandal? It doesn't make sense. Also, where are Kerry's ads? Did I miss them?

[Blasphemer]

29. The attacks ads started a couple of week ago...

Two weeks of those will take their toll. Also, his numbers during the primaries were inflated. There's no way they could stay at that level. Alot of time and money went into a full-on Bush assault during those 2 months. Dems have to get the ball rolling again.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

45. Can you say "data manipulation"?

[West Coast Democrat]

63. Give the scandal time...it WILL take hold

these revelations are new and shocking to many people. Meanwhile, Bush is using up half his war chest on expensive attack ads even before Kerry has picked a VP....yet it hasn't given Bush much of a boost, maybe upped Kerry's negatives a little bit, but I'm sure Bushco has to be disappointed about the minimal results.

[rinsd]

17. Numbers to pay attention to

Unfavorable numbers.....Kerry's going up would seem to agree with your assessment on the effect of the negative ads rather than Clarke.

[West Coast Democrat]

25. Or negative numbers because of Bush's attack ads?

And I'll bet you Bush's negative numbers are still higher than Kerry's.

[rinsd]

31. I would guess you are right....

"And I'll bet you Bush's negative numbers are still higher than Kerry's."

My comment was in regards to the negative ads on Kerry's unfavorables(and by extension his numbers as a whole) being the driving force as opposed to Clarke.

[qanda]

18. Their own numbers don't add up

This poll assumes that there are more Republicans than Democrats or Independents, which is just not the case.

On the number of people who are more likely to believe Bush* or Clarke, how is it that the Repub and Dem numbers pretty much cancel each other out and the Independent number is inclined to believe Clarke and yet the Bush* Administration gets a higher percentage? I guess they interviewed an extraordinary amount of Republicans.

[atre]

47. You're exactly right- Republicans overstated in this poll

The standard voter break-down, I have been told, is roughly 33-33-33, roughly a third each of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. There are slightly more Democrats than Republicans, and there are more Republicans than Independents.

By plugging in the numbers in my spreadsheet, the 33-33-33 assumption results in exactly the opposite result as the one they've posted. 46% would believe Clark and 44% would believe Bush, with 10% giving no answer. Very suspicious, no?

As best as I can tell, it looks like 40% of their respondents were Republicans, 37.5% were Democrats, and 22.5 were Independents. This formula has multiple variables, so it cannot be estimated with a reasonable degree of accuracy.

Regardless, they've clearly overestimated the number of Republicans, since any accurate distribution would give Republicans no greater numbers than Democrats, and it certainly would not give Republicans over 40% of the total voter pool pie.

[qanda]

57. Thank you

I'm not a math person, but I guess common sense kicks in even when math skills don't.

[VolcanoJen]

21. Everyone: Be Patient.

It's hard, since we've been plugged into this 9/11 stuff far, far longer than most Americans.

Most Americans want to hold onto their view that Bush did a great job that day, and led America strongly. Their views are now being challenged, under oath, for the first time since that horrible day. It might take awhile to filter down. The timing is good, and Kerry is doing well to continue hammering Bush on the Economy (clearly our strongest issue) while letting others hammer on the second front.

It's just going to take a little bit of time for this BIGGEST and MOST CREDIBLE of "Drips" to filter-down to less-politically-savvy-news-junkie-types. We're on the right path... and Richard Clarke is the King of Credibility.

These numbers will flip-flop, and then some, come early summer.

[Beetwasher]

27. Nope, Gallup is Bought and Paid For and Rotten to the Core

Their numbers will NEVER reflect reality.

They've done some very suspicious things in their polling. I wrote this post about them a while back, and this latest poll just confirms my suspicions even more:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=534560

Gallup is a corrupt propoganda arm of the WH. They are rotten to the core, I'm thoroughly convinced of that.

[VolcanoJen]

30. Gallup or not, we'll still see positive Bush numbers on the Clarke issue.

It's not all about Gallup. It's just that we need to be realistic here, and understand that Americans want desperately to believe that their leadership took good care of them on 9/11. It will take a little more push, a little more time, and a little more evidence to seperate them from what they wish was true.

It'll be ok...

[Beetwasher]

34. I Agree With What You're Saying

However, I don't expect Gallup to EVER reflect that reality in their polls...Other polls, yes, Gallup, no. I've just seen too much evidence that Gallup has no more credibility at all. They might as well be making up their polling numbers from whole cloth.

What your saying is totally true about the psyche of the American public. However, I'm talking about this specific poll by Gallup and essentially, we shouldn't be concerned about it because I'm almost certain that it really IS bullshit...

[59millionmorons]

22. So 2% are undecided, I think not

This poll smells funny.

[ElementaryPenguin]

24. THAT'S IT!! That's the LAST fucking poll I'm looking at! TOTAL bullshit!

We are all of us at WAR with Corporate America! We're not in a lot different boat than the Iraqis!! FUCK THESE LYING ASSHOLES! The revelation by a Republican that Bush was totally negligent in preparing to avoid 9-11 - hurts KERRY'S chances?????

I have fucking seen it all now - and I am ready to blow a FUCKING FUSE!!!! We are truly Germany in the 1930's!!

:spank:
:mad:
:argh:
:wow:
:beer:

[markses]

33. This is to be expected

Kerry has been off the trail for the better part of two weeks now, and Bush has been throwing everything but the kitche4n sink at him. It is a surprise that we haven't seen a deeper erosion.

The correct analysis is that Bush has been hurt by the Clarke revelations, since he has basically been campaigning alone for two weeks and has made only modest and really barely modest gains, in large part because the Clarke revelations have pulled the fire out from under his campaign. Bush can no longer run on his national security record without evoking the memory of this embarrassing period in his presidency, with the obviously lying Dr. Rice flailing like a grounded fish on more television shows than we care to remember.

The previous poster who hailed the erosion with independents is also correct. More than half of the independent likely voters believe Clarke, and only 36% believe the Bush administration. Not bad, seems to me. Bill Schneider's analysis is the desperate spin. These numbers are in fact not very troubling at all.

[59millionmorons]

37. only two numbers I care about Ohio-Florida

Every Ohio and Florida poll has Kerry leading. That is all I care about at this point.

[VolcanoJen]

40. Excellent post and analysis, markses!!!

DUers: Read markses post for a brilliant view of what the numbers truly reflect!!

[Tummler]

50. Good point

To express it in a metaphor which may or may not be apt:

If this were a game of basketball, Team Bush just retook a small lead over Team Kerry.

However, Team Bush's star player has fouled out of the game.

Smart money's on Team Kerry. :)

[soup]

35. and yet 53% say *bush admin is covering something up-

these numbers are completely out of whack. I think the bubble in the level they're using is broken.

[seabeyond]

39. i go with feel of republican husband

to the average republican on the street. he works all day, and watches the news at nite and reads the net before bed. priority though is to feed and clothe family.

watching the primary, ed got enthused with the democrat party. but i left him alone to take the clarke information in without my mouth, and i saw him getting quieter and not wanting to talk politics with me. last nite i finally said soemthing and also about all the people that have spoken up about bush, and he says, gotta make the money off the book. totally dismissed clarke. i told him, ooosh, this is hard now for you to let go of the republican, his lifetime party

i think this is a painful time for the party and loyalties automatically come in to play to protect their party in attack.

i am hoping that enough time, and more information, he can get beyond the protecting to the seeing.

he still isnt voting for bush

just odd thing i am seeing with him. and republicans friends

[rocktivity]

53. Kerry MUST reach out to people like Mr. Seabeyond

Originally posted by Seabeyond:
...(I) left him alone to take the Clarke information in without my mouth, and I saw him getting quieter and not wanting to talk politics with me...(He) totally dismissed Clarke. I told him...this is hard now for you to let go of the republican, his lifetime party...this is a painful time for the party and loyalties automatically come in to play...

People like Seabeyond's husband are no different from any other kind of junkie--they have to accept reality before they can start to let go. They've managed to figure out that they should hate Bush, but either their loyalty or their egos will prevent them from acutally voting against him. Wether through commericals, speeches, blogs, or support groups, THAT'S what we have to fight!

:headbang:
rocknation

[seabeyond]

58. you are right

let them make the move over and not rub in their face, they are already feeling uncomfortable, cool thank you for clarifying my thought. something they have to get the feel on, all these people jumping ship, are them, are lifelong republicans and will continue after this election to be republicans. but they have taken the veil or cleared the fog,.....

these are the people we would think would reach the republican the most, but the mouthing of the media and bushco warp them to disgruntled and unloyal.

i am understanding the psychological of it. i also think, after the initial mess of clarke, this will stay with the republicans and they will be more aware in their looking and listening to bush

[seabeyond]

59. duplicated

sorry

[VolcanoJen]

41. Look at the COVER-UP Question, added at 4:00!!!

Now, why the hell didn't "I Love Candy" Crowley mention this question, which seems to pertain directly to the Clarke question, at 3:30?

Slipped in, at 4:00:

Is Bush Administration Covering Up Something About 9/11 Intelligence?

Yes: 53%
No: 41%

[RobinA]

42. De Nile

Not just a river in Egypt. The tide is turning? Notwithstanding all evidence to the contrary? Smell the roses, people! It may yet turn, but it ain't right now.

[Zynx]

44. Those previous numbers that had Kerry up huge were not correct.

No other poll corroborated those numbers. These are likely more in line. Kerry has to attack Bush hard on national security right now to wear that advantage down. We can't let Bush claim that issue.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

49. Most other polls DID show Kerry leading...

...and now we're supposed to believe that Junior, after a rather huge thrashing from the Clarke revelations, is now leading??

LOL.

The phrase for the day is "data manipulation".

[Woodstock]

48. They trust AWOL more to send soldiers to war?

Trust More on Sending Troops Into War

Bush: 52%
Kerry 41%

This is quite simply, astounding. A stupid man who dodged service vs. a smart one who fought bravely. Astounding.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

51. Some would call those numbers an outright lie...

...consider me as solidly entrenched in that group.

[rocktivity]

54. The mainstream media has a direct stake in keeping the race close

it will keep keeping people tuning in, which is easier for the sheeple to do than read a newspaper or Web site. Also, keep in mind that NBC/MSNBC/CNBC's parent company is a defense contractor.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Karenina]

62. HALLO, Rocknation!

REALLY. What a senseless diversion these polls all are. The ONLY ONE that matters is the EXIT POLL. Unfortunately IT is in the ER and there's no word of a bed available in the ICU. What a fuckin' mess. :yourock:

[Oddman]

55. Blows my f%@#ing! Mind!!

Can this country be made up of so many nincompoops and fools? Maybe it's just that Kerry has not defined himself yet. I know he is slipping back into that wooden, technocratic democrat that speaks senatorese and bores the hell out of everyone within earshot. Let people read your policies don't state them verbatim and put everyone asleep. Get the big Democrats to start speaking out loud and proud in the words of the late Paddy Chayefsky -

I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore!!!

"Don't say anything stupid or chimpy gets it!"

[Zomby Woof]

56. "I Love Candy"!

:spank: ;-)

[mtnester]

60. It's sickening that even 13%

Of Democrats believe Bush' credibility over Clarke. How does this happen?

[Catherine Vincent]

61. The Zell Miller type.

[peacetalksforall]

64. Candy foot-washing and kissing Crowley?

She who gets down on the ground to honor the king, wash and kiss his feed and ermine robe. And Bill Schneider, who holds her purse while she adores.

[BabsSong]

65. Face reality, folks. Kerry's gonna raise taxes 900 billion and that's

all they took in over these last weeks. It works every time. That's why they own all three branches of government. THAT is the reason and not all this figuring out how they reacted to Clarke. This is the way the dumb fuckers in this country have voted at all levels of government for the past several years. They don't look at things like their jobs are going bye-bye, etc. They are just so afraid someone might raise their taxes and give it to welfare queens. If Kerry was smart he would recall Papa's "read my lips..no new taxes"...and then he raise them. Kerry has to point out that junior won't say that now but that junior has to pay for his mess soon and that once he gets into office he will raise the taxes of average Americans. God why can't we ever figure a way to answer these people??--just level the same type of goddamn charges at them.

[Poor Richard]

67. Don't sweat the small stuff

This poll is not important. Kerry has yet to really come out swinging.

Bush* and co. just put their fist in the tar baby. Give it some time. Someone said somewhere that this could be the "tipping point" - I believe that is the case.

The house of Bush* is about to fall!

but the job is far from over.

[leftofthedial]

66. Schneider's "analysis" is always horrible.

he knows nothing about statistics or logic. he constantly draws unsupported conclusions.