"Economic recovery could largely be a statistical illusion...."

[DeepModem Mom]

Heard this report on British tv, quoting a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, but could find nothing in print until today -- right here at DU. Papau posted it in the Economic Forum. Some excerpts:


U.S. Economy Recovering at Only Half Official Rate, Research Shows

By Allister Heath, Sunday Business, London Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News

Mar. 21 - America's buoyant economic recovery could largely be a statistical illusion, according to research released this weekend.

Last year's growth may be half the official figure, which would explain the lack of job creation which is damaging President Bush's re-election chances.

A growing number of discrepancies are emerging in America's economic numbers, including a dramatic over-estimation of manufacturing output. The latest analysis from Goldman Sachs suggests that the US economy may have grown by only about 2.2 percent in the year to the fourth quarter of 2003, considerably less than the official 4.3 percent.

Jan Hatzius, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, has added his voice to a growing band who believe that the growth figures are overstating the true recovery of the US economy. Errors in calculating manufacturing output and income growth explain why unemployment, on all measures, has consistently disappointed the markets in recent months, the research claims.

Hatzius said: "Over the last year, the official data show real gross domestic product (GDP) growing a sturdy 4.3 percent. Yet, non-farm payrolls are up only 0.1 percent. It is hard to overemphasise how unusual this combination is."...

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/business/national/8258155.htm

[lindashaw]

1. And here you have the explanation of why the polls show

Bush rising in the polls. There is evidently a science which uses a false basis for skewing outcomes. Truth: When things aren't adding up, they probably aren't. Common sense rules!

[TacticalPeek]

2. Enron economics. I'm . . . . . surprised?

:evilgrin:

[The Backlash Cometh]

3. "Statistical illusion"

I love the british. They have a way with words that just cuts to the chase, while we rely on, er, idioms and other shortcuts such as Sam Shepard's style of Fox-talk that removes verbs from his language because it gets in the way of the clock.

[MarianJack]

4. A Lie,...

...from the halliburton administration?

I'm shocked! Shocked, I tell you , SHOCKED!

[baldguy]

5. 3.2 million unemployed.

That's not an illusion.

[ClintonTyree]

6. Who would.................

do such a thing? Just who would manipulate data and just plain lie about the economy? Anyone...........anyone............anyone?

[kalian]

7. LOL!

No kidding.