9/11 issue had nothing to do with these new polls (new stats & not good)

[BabsSong]

Late this afternoon I ran into some stats on CNN that rather set me back on my heels---if you wait long enough, eventually they reveal other statistics within polls that get to the deeper truth of an issue. Please note that all the polls show an increase in Bush support (not just CNN) and now I know the reason. (The CNN poll was one that had a 51-47% Bush lead).

In those states where Bush does NOT HAVE ads the statistics from a couple months ago stay absolutely, dead the same at a 1% difference between the two. Now look at the other side of the coin:

Here’s the stats from those states where he DID have ads. These states just weeks ago showed a real good lead for Kerry - they had Kerry ahead by 7-8 points. Now they show 53-47 Bush. The change is huge--like around 12 points (and I’m sorry to say that this is without the Nader factor). This confirms to me something I’ve thought all along: If you look at those states that remained unchanged because of no Bush ads, you realize that this 9/11 stuff is really changing basically nothing out there (i.e, people like us support our respective corners and the rest don’t even know what the hell is going on). But here’s what is so depressing to me...

These ads are pathetic. There is the pathetic ‘nothing’ ads of his leadership with Pickles in the background. Then there are attack ads that are comical---i.e, Kerry’s going to raise your taxes by 900 billion; Kerry ALONE kept protective gear off of your GI’s and now Kerry’s solution to the gas problem is a 50 cent tax per gallon (something people talked about a zillion years ago and never even proposed). Folks, you can’t talk to DUMB and we have a nation of DUMB. My suggestion as much as it rips my guts is this. We don’t have the money to go after him right now. I would suggest they save up the cash and about late June start hitting and then throw it all at them from after the convention on---and forget about spending a dime or a visit on these Southern States and others that are hopeless. We don’t really have any other choice..do we??

[childslibrarian]

1. Yep, I live in Pennsylvania

The ads are incredibly dumb. I shout back decent answers at them every time they come on.
But obviously, they work...

[progressiverealist]

2. with Bush's tremendous financial advantage and the media

being basically in his back pocket, he really can't lose.

My call would be to concentrate on damage control- in other words, protect vulnerable senate and house seats and try to pick off a few on their side.

I'm afraid spending money on the presidential race is, while admirable in principle (never give up, fight them all the way, etc.) probably a futile proposition.

[samsingh]

3. we too can put out ads

lots and lots of ads.

it works both ways. especially now that people are not as afraid to challenge repugs.

[BabsSong]

6. sam--we don't have any money that's why we can't put out lots and

lots of ads. Or not at the pace this guy can. America buys whatever they see the most on Teeeeveee..their god. We have to be wise and not only pick our spots but they have to be stinging when we put one on the air...and they have not been.

[BabsSong]

4. We have them in my state and a few 'puffy' Kerry ones

Kerry's ads are basically like "a new morning in America" while Bush's attack ads are being listened to. This crap won't work. We need Bush attack ads in these states and we need them now. I could see no Kerry ads because of lack of money; BUT for Christ's sake if you're going to put a goddamn ad out here, then make it a memorable one---learn to play the damn game. Can we not ever learn???

[GiovanniC]

14. I Live in Michigan

I see Bush and Kerry ads fairly regularly. Several weeks ago, Kerry had ads attacking Bush. Everyone whined that he was "too negative", he was being too harsh on Bush, etc.

So Kerry went positive, started putting out ads about his future for America, about jobs and health care and the economy and foreign policy. Now he seems weak as Bush continues to pound on Kerry with bullshit ads: "Kerry's weak on defense", "Kerry wants to raise your taxes by $900 billion", "Kerry flip-flops", "Kerry wants to raise gas prices by 50 cents a gallon".

The guy can't win in this kind of climate.

[Trajan]

5. Werent you just whining the other day ...

about how all is lost and there is NO WAY we can win ? ...

Is this a daily thing ? ..

What is up with your constant negativity ? .. are you driven by negative thinking ? ... does it make you feel better when you think everything is going wrong ? ..

Honestly: ... Eeyore is not a proactive motivator ... he is hardly a good leader ....

[BabsSong]

8. I'm so sorry Trajan....I really lied about those stats--never saw

them. In fact it was just the opposite and I came here to lie. It really showed that these polls lied and that there is a swarm of Americans hearing our message, marching to our drum beat. Why they are shouting give me KERRY< KERRY......they really showed that the true stats were 98% Kerry and zip for George. It's this idiot polyanna shit that loses us elections. We need to get some real hard messages out there and we need to either do it now or put all our money in one big mother fucking bang come July. But they gained ground. It was all in states he had ads. Ads ARE working--stop thinking the American people can see through them. They can't even see if their own kid is high on pot much less what the hell is going on in their nation. We have problems and this 9/11 shit isn't going to fix them. We have to give all we can to this campaign and they have to use it wisely. In the future I will try to only post "we are going to bury Bush in the elections" posts--will that make you feel better. Or may the 1,000 posts here tonight on goddamn cigarette bans---that seems to be much more important than what's happening in our government.

[FlemingsGhost]

7. Posts like this used to make me feel hopeless, defeated...

Now I just laugh.

Stop reading polls, Babs.

[Trajan]

9. But ... BUT ....

The SKY is falling ! ! ! ...

Chick N. Little said so ....

[BabsSong]

11. You guys sound JUST like the people who are attacking Clarke

KILL THE MESSENGER AND FUCK THE MESSAGE. It's not the CNN overall poll; it's the sub-poll of showing where these numbers changed. It's the ADS, STUPID. And that's where the Dems need to wake up. I live in a state that has these ads and we have Kerry's too. Kerry's are on like 1 to 10 of Bush BUT Bush is great smear ads and Kerry's one is, well, stupid. If he can afford ONE ad then goddamn it, make it something hard hitting.

[BabsSong]

10. Dems Unite - it wasn't "the polls" -- it was the breakdown within

the polls that showed where these numbers changed. No ads = no change. Ads = 12 point swing. Hopefully the guys in the Kerry campaign are not ignoring the "stats"---in fact, I believe that's why campaigns spend zillions on polls (wouldn't if they had no relevance...would they??)

[JanMichael]

12. I would certainly lay off the big spending until late summer.

Because, the simple fact is, they will have a quarter of a billion dollars to spend by the Bush campaign alone. That doesn't even count the so called issue ads that'll still outspend us.

It's insane to run butt outta money right before the election when we know how unstable the "independants" are.

[BabsSong]

13. That's why I think right now those people like MoveOn need to

fill in the gaps until Kerry gets the money. THEN Kerry needs to put out ads that are very like those we see on MoveOn. These "morning in America" type ads of his we see here where both of them are advertising are totally forgettable. But Bush's 900 billion tax increase, etc. ads, I can see sinking right into the people's brains. We don't have one cent of ad money to spend on these blah blah type ads. Hit them now and hit them hard. OR just plain HIT them.