What is your current assessment of our chances in November?

[coloradodem2005]

I know that the polls show an increase for Bush, but I think that the Clarke testimony, in a series of damaging events to the administration, will be damaging. Do the Dems have shrub's number? Will we have a president named John Forbes Kerry at this time next year? Will the Shrubs finally be completely discredited? I hope so, what about you. I have the feeling we will win the election. Bush will lose the Presidency, we will get the senate back. We will make significant gains in the house.

[The Lone Liberal]

1. It is going to depend upon the economy

If everyone is up then he is in, if the economy sours between now and then, I don't mean the numbers because they will jack with the numbers, but if consumer confidence, which up at the moment sours, then we will beat him.

[rockymountaindem]

4. Consumer confidence is already down.

www.pollingreport.com

[Waverley_Hills_Hiker]

2. tossup

its going to be close. Im not even going to guess. 2000 all over again.

[jfxgillis]

3. A little better than 50/50. Because ...

... More than any election since '68, events outside the control of the candidates will affect the outcome, and I think Bush has a less than 50/50 chance having Iraq settled by then to the extent that the public will agree is satisfactory.

Our election hinges on Ayatollah Sistani, in other words.

Ironic, innit?

[kera]

22. wishful thinking

in all the polls Iraq issue doesn't come close to 1o percent or so don't count on this one

the big problem is psychological, * outlook seems to empower masses some how, they instinctively identify to him , this link is so powerful as to override any other consideration. this reasoning might seem a bit off the mark to you but just think about it a minute, this is the reason why nothing has so far damaged his credibility no matter how serious, OWL, O Neil Revelation Clarke and so on, on the contrary damaging news will only increase the sympathy for him, the masses have an instinctive connection to him,and if you don't believe me, watch his ads, his wife smiling in the background , it compels masses's vision of the world , soft voice that make him almost look like any nice average amiricain, It is the look stupid! because if economy and job loss were the main issue, and it is at this point in time at it worse, the polls would have already told the story . it is even not about security....fear always subsides after a while ,

please consider my argument before laughing , I don't want to add to your desappointment , but we must face the reality in order to act

And not to mention that voting maching if not fixed in the meantime.....

[molly]

5. We will win

[whistle]

6. It's going to depend on whether or not the touch screen...

...voting machines are uncertified. BushCo could steal this election also. And then there's the wild-card that Bush has to just suspend the election due to a national emergency of BushCo making.

[chillwindblowing]

7. the bogus war in Iraq

Larry King on now .... I think I just heard the other shoe about to drop.. Economy.......the lies on going to Iraq...
cheney and Halibuton.... the wilson affair. the list goes on and on. It is looking good for Democracy in November.... Now the
voting is another story.......:donut:

[osaMABUSh]

8. We have a 60/40 chance - focus on Ohio and Fla if polls

continue to show Kerry up in these two states then it looks good. I think we only have to win one of these states to win the election.

[mtnester]

9. 50/50

If he wins Ohio, we win. If he loses Ohio, 4 more years of hell and generations of consequences.

[unblock]

10. kerry has a 60% chance

i don't think it will be a blowout, but i do think kerry will win.

a LOT of republicans will sit this one out, and a LOT of democrats will show up this time.

[Junkdrawer]

11. Well, let's put it this way...

When the stark choice between Bush and Kerry is made, the vast majority will choose Kerry.

And that being said, it's a million-to-one shot.

[swag]

12. Victory is worth fighting for

It would be nice to take a first step out of this hell-pit we have been led into by the greedheads, warmongers, and insane theocrats.

Let's do it.

[kalian]

13. Rigged elections...no chance....

and that's my final answer.

[HEFFA]

14. The media needs to be reeled in.....

They are playing an enormous role in helping to shape public perceptions of the race.

Here's a good example of what I'm talking about. You've probably heard from someone about how voter turnout was so low during primary season. Lot's of repukes are using this as an indication that voters are complacent or perhaps even pleased with Bushco. If you examine the available evidence, however, this assertion is questionable at the least. Take this article in the USA Today for example.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-03-09-voter-turnout_x.htm

The headlines declares that no one cares about the election, but READ the article. It's full of good news about how many Dems are showing up to the polls (mainly because we're PISSED), and how united they are.

With the real numbers making their way out to the people, there's no doubt in my mind that the pretzeldent is on his way out. Of course, it takes the people to hold the media to their responsibility of actually reporting the facts.

[calimary]

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[charliebrown]

28. I am upset to admit the truth but read the article you linked too

It is said right in the 1st two paragraph's. If the hate is party wide then this wouldn't be the turnouts. It is sad to say but I don't think the average Dem has the hate that is apparent in DU.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-03-09-voter-turnout_x.htm

WASHINGTON — Only 7.2% of American voters participated in the presidential primaries through March 2, according to a report released Tuesday.
Democratic turnout — at 11.4% — was the third lowest on record, although it was higher than in the past two presidential election years. Democratic primary voters were united by their intense dislike of President Bush, but seemed to see little difference in the policy positions of the competing Democrats, according to the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.

I don't see what you are saying in this article. I see that 11% of 40% are showing up. That is same the as what the headline says. And it is even worse if most that have gone only care about being mad and have NO Passion for Kerry.

I want shrub gone but I don't think the hate is as widespread as it is conceived here at DU.

[solinvictus]

15. If the Chimp loses

It'll be recorded as the last American election. Prepare for the worst, but work for the best. Dubya's handlers have abrogated so much power that such a scenario's not unlikely. Arm yourselves while you can.

[napi21]

16. Depends on how much sticks to Shrub.

So far there have been 2 books, but there are more to come. At least one each month from now till Sept. O'Neil & Clark have taken their toll, and I heard the Woodward book is tougher yet.

If this kind of stuff keeps beating the drums, we'll win.

[sal]

18. Elections suspended - martial law

It sickens me that I feel so strongly that * will not relenquish power if he feels he is losing in the polls. It makes no sense to me that he would do otherwise given what we know about him. Events have been building towards this for the last half century. They know that 25% of the people are "good nazis" and would fight to keep the regime in power. If things turn out any other way, I will be the first to breath a great sigh of relief as I pay off all the small wagers I have with my friends and colleagues who believe it will be just one more election just like the others.

[mr_du04]

19. There wont be a repuke in the WH for years to come.

too many people are seeing him for what he really is the rethugs are doomed.

[mmonk]

20. I'm too tired to think

Thinking for the portion of the nation that doesn't is hard work.

[BillZBubb]

21. Our chances are slim, but there is a chance

Too many in the public seem more than willing to buy the Bush* spin on every problem and screw up that happens. The corporated media helps insure that they get the spoon fed all the spin all the time. Bush* has unlimited cash to put out bullshit ads. We'll never match that.

He'll get Osama, and the public will go nuts. Hooray, three years late, but who cares!

The economy will be growing and jobs might actually start getting created. With Greenspan holding rates down for Chimpy and the Repugs spending borrowed money like there was no tomorrow, there will be short term good news--but longer term it's a disaster. The public will pay attention to the short term--as always.

No matter, we've got to keep fighting the good fight. If Shrub gets elected, this country is heading for a major disaster.

[sweetheart]

23. if you had a crystal

and you saw yourself dead, and all of your cause, dead and destroyed...
Would you still fight?

This is the question the Silesian pirates pose Spartacus in the film
when they first meet him.

He answers them that for a slave, death is freedom. There is no
choice but to oppose the evil of bush and his anti-christian satanism.

[arewethereyet]

24. we have a chance if Kerry starts projecting a plan of his own

as opposed to pointing at things and saying how sucky they are and what he might do differently.

He is not imparting a vision as Clinton and Carter did. Or as Edwards did but, of course, that ship has sailed.

[kodi]

25. nearly nil. & its Kerry's own god damned fault

i know, i know, Kerry is traditionally a late closer, but this is not a fucking horse race, and he's not Secretariat either.

if Kerry doesn't soon get his shit together he will be 20 points behind Bush and wondering why people think he is a skinny version of Al Gore.

my biggest problem is with who is running his campaign, it seems like i am seeing in Kerry's campaign the same blunders that plagued Al gore. viz., slow counter-attacks in the media, a lack of support in the media from other democrats (and not just a frigging dinner where Dem's hold hands),

and worst of all, no competently voiced narrative that Kerry espouses upon which he can hang his policy stances.

there is no there there when it comes to over-arching fundamentals of belief from Kerry. its amorphous bullshit that is just as easily shaped by the busheviks for public consumption as by Kerry himself.

having Kerry drone on about jobs, fair trade and the like is a somnambulist's dream. but where is the fire in the belly that is expressed as a "dont tread on me motherfucker!" attitude that let's all of us know that Kerry will actively engage the foe and try his damnest to gouge their eye balls right out of their sockets?

it ain't there, and it had better be, or Kerry will look like whatever the busheviks want him to.

if Kerry wants to win, he had better start reading Al Gore's recent speeches and learn to put his heart on his sleeve.

[JCMach1]

26. 40% chance and shrinking

The spin that has been puked by the media is that Clarke is a partisan attack.

Few understand that he is a Repug...

Even fewer actually look into it.

Not only that, Clarke's testimony keeps alive the dumbass theory of 9/11. The AWWWWW shucks routine can continue with Repugs saying "He may be a dumbass, but he's our dumbass..."

[Nlighten1]

27. It is our's to lose...Ralph Nader is right!

We should be heaping scorn on the Republicans. No WMD...No new jobs...you name it...Bush has fucked up...

[David Dunham]

29. I think the economy slows in the fall and we will win!!!!

[kodi]

30. a wonderful right wing talking point about how democrats hate people

nice work, buckaroo.

[fujiyama]

31. Ultimately...

I think we have about a 51% chance of winning. It is shrinking though, as Kerry is getting pummeled by negative ads, and almost a quarter billion dollar warchest. He's also lost the excitement he had in the first week and made a blunder with the "more leaders" thing. Granted that's old news, but stupid shit piles up.

Kerry has to give clearer and more concise answers. Nuance is good when governing, but NOT in campaigning. Be clear, forthright, and appear decisive.

I really think a lot of people dislike this president, but Bush is scaring the shit out of people with terra, and raising doubts about Kerry with taxes, and other issues. I still think a large majority of Gore voters aren't going to be voting for Bush -- granted there are exceptions (those believing he's doing a good job on terrorism). But I think it's important for Kerry to stress how out of touch Bush is with ordinary Americans. Bush is the extremist. This is what has to be stressed. His policies are not helping America become safer, and he sure doesn't care about the interests of ordinary people over those of big business.

[jeanmarc]

32. We'll take Ohio and that's all she wrote. [nt]

[The Night Owl]

33. The 2004 election will be close, which means that it won't be close...

If the 2004 election looks like it will be close, Smirk and company will do something underhanded to persuade the voters to reinstall Smirk. I don't think the Bush gang will do anything as severe as many here are claiming they will do, and that is not to say I put anything past the Bush gang, but I do think they have a variety of relatively small dirty tricks at their disposal. In other words, the Bushies will take the minimum necessary action to ensure the reinstallation of Smirk.

Bill Clinton, in his most recent speech at the Democratic unity dinner, was exactly right. Unfortunately, these people, the Republicans, know how to grab power and they know how to keep it.

[IronLionZion]

34. keep our hopes up and fight the good fight

I feel that Clarke, O'Neil, etc. are just the tip of the iceberg. Woodward and Wilson look promising and there is more stuff that we don't know about.

I'm guessing the debut of Air America will help us but Michael Moore's movie probably won't.

Meanwhile, we better be out there helping Kerry. There are lots of strategies to win, but to win big we need a huge Democratic turnout and a small Republican turnout. There's no point trying to get conservative to vote for a Massachusetts liberal. We need them to stay home on election day. If enough shit hits the fan, they will be shocked into abandoning Bush and boycotting the election. Then Dems will sweep Senate and Congressional elections as well. Then once they see how awsome Democrats are, the tide will shift left-ward in America (because now it is towards the right).

I'm optimistic.

[Wapsie B]

35. Chimpy has failed upwards his entire life.

He has nowhere else to go but down. It's too early to tell about our real chances considering BBV. Ask me on Inauguration Day, '05.

[Yupster]

36. Little better than 50-50 is my bet

but it's so early.

[doc03]

37. Hope I'm wrong (slim )

[quinnox]

38. Bush is toast

Kerry will win convincingly in Nov.

Bush facing too many battles over too many fronts, and the defense his team has shown is making it even worse.

[Sparky McGruff]

39. I think bush is toast, too

The election is many months away, and the Bushies are on defense every day.

Sure, they dumped $25 million into carpet-bombing a few markets with ads, and got a temporary bump in the polls. But, it's a long time until November.

They're going to be defending themselves every day against new attacks -- not made by Kerry. And, it's really really early to start with the attack ads. By starting now, people are going to get used to them, and there's time for people to figure out that the attack ads are full of crap. Normally, attack ads come out at the last minute, because the point is to keep people from thinking about them too hard. They're running attack ads at the same rate as Budweiser commercials. I think people are going to get viscerally annoyed by them.

I think he's toast, unless Kerry really f's it up.

[Sugarbleus]

40. 50-50

Even though we have all the facts (or the facts came out after we told them so)........THEY have all the clout and money.

I'm nervous but still hopeful. I just sent some more money to Kerry. I will totally freak out if Bush wins. :scared:

[SarahB]

41. If votes were counted properly...Very good, but....

I don't think they will be. We have to landslide this to overcome the voter fraud that will take place.

[Lorien]

42. I don't have a good feeling about it

and I really hope I'm wrong, but the odds are stacked against us. BBV, the conservative corporate news, the endless intellectual laziness,cowardance, ignorance and greed of at least 60% of Americans (who still can't seem to grasp the fact that they always make more money with a democratic president). I'll still work as hard as ever to defeat *, I just wish I felt a bit more optimistic.

[grannyfran]

43. It's Gonna Be Tight

if Dems don't all get a tag-team effort going on the media. There's books, scandals, Iraq-about-to-be-civil-war, Plamegate, 9-11, etc. -- plenty of ammo to shoot at *. But convincing the sheeple? Not unless it's all being brought forward on a 24-7 basis by any and all living, breathing Democrats.

[Lexingtonian]

44. It's gonna be a bumpy ride, but we'll win

To state the obvious, there are going to be two parts to the General Election campaign- the present March to June stretch and then the full bore (so to speak) July/August to November run. It's the messy streetfighting of the first part- now- that is trickier. Still, I really think Bush will not have much left to run on than a Chicken Little ("The sky is falling! The liberals, uh terrorists, are coming!") theme for the second part. Kerry's fall campaign is obviously going to be Four Years of Bush Scandals.

I'm sorry I don't share your optimism about retaking the Senate this time around- breaking even seems the most realistic outcome to me, but 2006 looks excellent for about a six or seven seat gain. The House is a bit more mysterious but I think you're right- gain of a handful- and very good prospects for '06 too.

[Piperay]

45. 50/50

I'm not overly optimistic but I am not overly pessimistic either. I think we have a shot if everything lines up correctly for Kerry and if the election is fair. :shrug: