Why I think the Dems will keep the Governorship in California

[CMT]

Not necessarily win the Recall. I mean People are mad (wrongly) at Gov. Davis, but it is very conceivable that Davis could lose the recall vote but the Democrats retain the Governorship. Why?

Right now the most recent polls indicate that Davis would lose the recall by 52-38 percent. Lets assume this trend continues and undecideds split and Davis winds up losing on the Recall quesstion garnering about 43% who vote NO. Bad news for Davis, yes, but 43% is a significant minority and it is hard to believe that people (including strong partisan Democrats who oppose this recall) would then vote for A Repuke to replace Davis on the second ballot.

In a crowded field 43% is enough to win this thing all together if they united behind a viable Democrat such as Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. I doubt that John Garamendi will be considered viable. Now it is conceivable that some of that 43% who vote No on recalling Davis will vote for an Independent such as Huffington or the Green Party candidate--but in my opinion that would be counter balanced by the people who vote YES to recall Davis because of the prospect of having Cruz Bustamante as Governor--and reports are that many Latinos are genuinely excited by the prospect of having a Latino Governor in California and will come out in droves to vote.

My prediction: Unfortuantely Davis loses the recall but still gets around 40% who vote NO. Much of this 40% will be from partisan Democrats who hate the recall and it is doubtful that they will vote for a Republican on the second ballot--Add to that the people who are excited about Cruz being the first Latino Governor--I think Dems will end the day still occupying the Governors mansion in Sacramento.

[tedoll78]

1. A theoretical question:

Suppose Davis loses the recall.
Also suppose the Bustamante wins the election.
Does the Governor get to appoint the new Lt Governor? Because if he's able to do this, he can put Davis in the Lt Governor spot. And then he can resign, in which case Davis would once again become Governor. And then Davis could re-appoint Bustamante.

Boy oh boy.. if that's possible and if it were to happen.. boy would that majorly piss some people off. Especially the CA GOP, lol!

[JustJoe]

2. You just blew my mind.

ka-powee!

[FatbackSlim]

3. Neat idea

But it won't happen.

Why would Bustamante give up the big chair just to get Davis back in power? And why would he risk his future political career by participating in such a blatant finger-in-the-eye to the people?

If he wins, he's staying.

[T Roosevelt]

6. I understand where you're coming from, but...

which people?

participating in such a blatant finger-in-the-eye to the people?

Keep in mind that the majority of Californians ELECTED Davis last November, so this recall is a finger-in-the-eye to them...and they FAR OUTNUMBER the number of people who signed the recall ballot.

Do I think he could get away with it? No - he would be crucified by the SCLM, but it would certainly be in line with the decision California made last November.

[FatbackSlim]

10. The finger

A lot of people who voted for Davis in '02 are supporting the recall...yes, the recall is offensive to a lot of diehard party loyalists, but for many of the people for whom politics is something they only really think about at election time, they're okay with having an opportunity to take out the trash early. I think far more people would be offended at the blatant gamesmanship of the described maneuver than are offended by the notion of a recall in the first place.

[dansolo]

17. And remember a little detail

A lot of people held their nose and voted for Davis because of who he was running against. If the Republicans had backed a more moderate candidate, Davis wouldn't have had a chance. Davis' unpopularity is not a recent thing.

[Perky]

11. The Election Math

If you look at where the votes will go based on the response to the recall question, It should be a slam dunk for the dems. Look at the math:

.............................Overall % of No Vote
No recall…..45%.....Bustamante……31.5%......70.0%
……………………............Schwarzenegger…5.9% ...13.0%
……………………............Simon……………0.5%..........1.0%
……………………............McClintock………0.5%.......1.0%
……………………............Ubberoth…………2.3%........5.0%
……………………............Camejo…………...2.3%.......5.0%
……………………............Huffington……….2.3%......5.0%
……………………………………….................45%........100%

.............................Overall % of No Vote
Yes recall…..55%....Bustamante……6%...... 10.0%
……………………............Schwarzenegger…22%.....40.0%
……………………............Simon……………14%..........25.0%
……………………............McClintock………11%.......20.0%
……………………............Ubberoth…………..3%........5.0%
……………………............Camejo…………...3%.........5.0%
……………………............Huffington...3%.........5.0%
……………………………………….................55%........100%

This puts Cruz with 37.5% and Arnold nest at 27.9.

One thing to keep in mind there may be alot of disaffected Dems who will not vote for Gray but will vote for Bustamante.

But even if Gray drops to 40% or more those votes go to Cruz anyway.

The last thing is I have a lot of friends on the religious right and they are pretty torqued at Bush for showing any support for Arnold.

They consider Arnold completely unacceptable and think it would be hypocritical when they bashed Clinton so hard for being a potsmoking womanizer,

[w4rma]

21. What is your source for that information, Perky? (n/t)

[Perky]

19. It would Piss me off too.

It is enough of a carnival as it is


If they ever thought of a stunt like that I would sign the recall petition which would be sure to follow...Follow...hellll I'd sign people up myself.

[UrbScotty]

4. I think it will be VERY close...

...but Busatamante will win. Maybe by only 1-2% over Ah-nuld, but I think Cruz will win.

Also, I think John Garamendi dropped his bid to run for Governor.

[JCMach1]

5. Garamendi bowed out last night

IT should be clear for Bustamante.

[slackmaster]

8. Did the Democratic Party suddenly develop a brain yesterday?

Sunday morning and there is only ONE significant Democrat on the ballot. Am I dreaming? What planet is this?

[AP]

7. A few things that make me worry

I doubt the people being polled are LIKELY voters. It's one thing to ask the public at large what they think. It's another to gauge how people who will show up at the booth on election day. The nature of the recall is that it's just going to attract people who are pissed and want their voices heard, while not attracting people who are happy with the status quo. And the circus nature (which must be intentional) compounds that problem. It's very possible that the NO vote will be less than 33%.

The other problem is that there are 130 candidates among whom the yes and no vote will be divided. Cruz is going to have to fight for the Democrats who like sports (Uberoff), and like the Terminator movies (at least 1 and 2), and who like Huffington's attacks on Bush, and who like porn, and who like Gary "What you talking about, Willis" Coleman, etc. etc.

[papau]

9. Arnold will hit 35% today - if it stays that high, he wins

A 60 day campaign with no issues

just attitude

Sounds like Reagan to me.

I just hope I am wrong and you are correct that a Dem is the Gov of CA in December.

[CMT]

12. saw an AP poll which showed Davis losing recall ? 53-37

and Arnold ahead of Cruz by 25-15--but that is good news in a sence. All the news the past few days has been Arnold and he still only attracts a quarter of the vote. He will be under alot of scrutiny now and with Cruz now having the Dem field to himself I think Dems in the end will vote Democratic.

[David__77]

13. Democrat Bustamante will get more than 35%

Don't worry about that. The point now is to make sure the right knows how "liberal" Arnie is, and rally around Bustamante and against the recall. We still have two months. Time is not on their side. Each day the "Arnie bubble" gets more unstable.

[MoonAndSun]

14. I believe that the latino voters will go all out for Bustamante,

and that should be enough to bring the Dems over the top.

I have relatives in California, latinos, and they like Arnie, but are loyal to their own, so Cruz does have the upper hand in this race.

[CMT]

15. True becuz right now Larry King is showing excerpts of

Arnold's various appearances on his show. The media is going wild for this charade.

[wellstone_democrat]

16. The media sees endless stories in an Arnold reign

its all money and all 'stories' not real issues that real people have to live with. They will beat the drum and give endless coverage that is non-critical to Schwartzenegger which will help not hurt him. the key is to get some issues talked about---California is a mess and the recall is based on saying that it is Davis who did it and can't fix it. Isn't anyone out there going to ask these zillion candidates HOW they will fix things? Do that seriously and you sink that inarticulate and inexperienced Schwartzenegger (and his other incompetent show-boat companions on the ballot) to the bottom of the bay in short order.

But, if no one has to answer anything substantive, the TV in particular will promote "The Terminator!" as the hero of California. Why not, its in their interest to do so.

(BTW, I have a colleague whose large religious and conservative family lives in LA , they are horrified by Arnold's candidacy. They don't seem to think Republican on the bumpersticker cancells out all sins. They are looking elsewhere to place their votes and they do indeed vote! I suspect they are not alone)

[jiacinto]

18. Garamendi dropped out

The Democrats are going to need to get out the vote strongly here as whoever brings out their base the best will win this race.

[Perky]

20. Geesh People Grow a brain!!!

Any one who votes no on the rcall is going to vote for Cruz 8 out of ten times.

Say on 40% vote no on the recall that means Crus gets 32% for not imploding.

There are 6 other candidates running each with a guarantee of 5% of the vote and three with a guarantee of 15% that is 60% that is split.


that is 92 percent committed right off the bat. That leave 8% up for grabs. That means the most the second candidate can get is 23 to 25%

This is over.