CA Election Math---its a lock

[Perky]

If you look at where the votes will go based on the response to the recall question, It should be a slam dunk for the dems. Look at the math:

.............................Overall % of No Vote
No recall…..45%.....Bustamante……31.5%......70.0%
……………………............Schwarzenegger…5.9% ...13.0%
……………………............Simon……………0.5%..........1.0%
……………………............McClintock………0.5%.......1.0%
……………………............Ubberoth…………2.3%........5.0%
……………………............Camejo…………...2.3%.......5.0%
……………………............Huffington……….2.3%......5.0%
……………………………………….................45%........100%

.............................Overall % of No Vote
Yes recall…..55%....Bustamante……6%...... 10.0%
……………………............Schwarzenegger…22%.....40.0%
……………………............Simon……………14%..........25.0%
……………………............McClintock………11%.......20.0%
……………………............Ubberoth…………..3%........5.0%
……………………............Camejo…………...3%.........5.0%
……………………............Huffington...3%.........5.0%
……………………………………….................55%........100%

This puts Cruz with 37.5% and Arnold nest at 27.9.

One thing to keep in mind there may be alot of disaffected Dems who will not vote for Gray but will vote for Bustamante.

But even if Gray drops to 40% or more those votes go to Cruz anyway.

The last thing is I have a lot of friends on the religious right and they are pretty torqued at Bush for showing any support for Arnold.

They consider Arnold completely unacceptable and think it would be hypocritical when they bashed Clinton so hard for being a potsmoking womanizer,

[realFedUp]

1. Do you work in Las Vegas?

kinda interesting. I imagine this recall will be on the big board
in Vegas et al.

[GOPBasher]

2. That's awesome!

I'm so happy for that good news. Where is this poll from though?

[Perky]

3. Actually not a poll

Just my logical sense of how the breaks down.


Inles the Dems self drstruct it seems like it impossible for anyone else to win.

The Riigh wingers have to attack Arnold.for being pro-choice.. to pull the base back into line. Gray Davis has to pick a fight with Arnold on issues of competnce. so my guess is that Arnold has nowhere to go but down.

THe Repukes are going to split their base. Labor is going to be out in strength and Cruz mught get a big Latino bump...I am not sure if we can count on Davis winning.. because Latinos my vote against Davis so that they could give a boost to Cruz.


But I think Crus will certainly win a plurality

[CaptainMidnight]

4. we havent' counted on the "unexpected"

Check out my tinfoil hat theory below.

I can't think that Rove had Arnie enter the race without some kinda "master plan."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=156846

Captain Mike

[Perky]

5. Bush had better not

sho his face on the same platform as Arnold. The Righwing would have a cow.

[knight_of_the_star]

6. Be nice though

I have no problem with him shooting himself in the foot.

[AP]

7. That's exactly what Republicans want Democrats to think...

If Dem's think it's a lock, they won't sense the urgency and they won't go vote. This recall election is all about TURNOUT. Dem's have to feel like it's serious and they have to get out and vote. There's no way they're going to get 50%, so they got to show up to vote for Cuz.

Seriously.