So what's the October Surprise going to be?

[Bossy Monkey]

Poll question: So what's the October Surprise going to be?

I assume I don't have to tell anybody here what an October Surprise is at this point, but what the hey... The October surprise is what a losing, failing, or otherwise very worried president (or in this case nearest local equivalent) pulls when faced with defeat, a superior candidate, war crimes tribunals or in this case (if there were any justice) all of the above.

My own shrewd notion is that the October surprise will come in September; once such a phrase has made its way into the English language, the surprise is somewhat obviated, isn't it?

[CharlesGroce]

1. John Kerry Concedes!

Bush is slightly better at representing the corporate class than Kerry.

[bushwakker]

8. Your asshole pal Nader hopes to give Bush a Nov surprise

by helping him get another 4 years in the WH. How very progressive of him and you.

[VolcanoJen]

2. I picked "some other heinous shit"

I think it's going to be political. Cheney off the ticket, Ridge or Guiliani on the ticket.

I don't believe their denials and oaths of "loyalty." As soon as it becomes clear that Dick's affecting the numbers, he's out. He's been handsomely rewarded already, and has little left to accomplish now that everyone's on to his games... Cheney won't fight the golden parachute.

[Bossy Monkey]

10. #2 doesn't make much of a difference to a ticket; witness Quayle

I suspect if you stopped 10 people on the street, 8 wouldn't be able to name the vice president.

[VolcanoJen]

11. It's an age-old debate, but a change to the incumbent ticket midstream...

... would be absolutely headline-grabbing, and would generate excitement, especially if Cheney left for "health reasons" and Bush didn't actually have to fire someone for the first damned time in his entire administration.

I'm one of those who puts more stock in #2 than some other amateur pundits. It's a split camp. I do think it matters this election cycle more than ever.

[Yupster]

17. Good guess Volcano

That would be a good way for Bush to shake up the race if he's going down in flames.

I'd guess hed pick a woman VP though. Want the first woman VP? Have to vote for Bush then. A way to change votes in a dying campaign.

Watch Kay Bailey Hutchison closely. If she changes her voting registration to Nebraska, then she's the one.

[bushwakker]

3. Reagan croaks

a week-long GOP love fest ensues.

[VolcanoJen]

4. I hope that's all the October Surprise ends up being.

We can endure that, politically... and Nancy hasn't acted like she's willing to play ball lately.

I have a feeling Ronnie's going to hang on a bit longer though... and while I'm no supporter of his, I certainly am not advocating his death. (disclaimer)

[bushwakker]

6. I hope he lives to 200

Nancy has been pretty good lately but I don't think even she could put the brakes on this one.

[Wapsie B]

15. Nancy has no love for the Bush's.

She didn't trust them even before they tried to kill Ronny. I'll bet she's got a tell-all book on the BFEE ready to go to print after Ronny does buy the ranch.

[Deja Q]

5. US economy utterly implodes, * claims neocons should take over

After all, they are the "part of fiscal responsibility". :eyes:

[roach23]

7. i think

it will be Bin Laden, but I don't think it will be the real Bin Laden, just some poor guy that looks just like him.

[Journeyman]

9. Why can't it be an October Surprise from the DEMOCRATS?. . .

Why should the Republicans be the only ones capable of late election campaign surprises?

Too many on this board are too willing to concede all the hardball play to the other side. With all that's come out so far this year -- no WMD, torture in the prisons, pre-9/11 invasion planning. . . the list seems near endless -- but with all this, why shouldn't there be more held in reserve? Why shouldn't we expect another anti-Shrub bombshell in the closing days of the campaign?

Start thinking positive. . . which can sometimes be in the guise of negative vibes for the other side.

[VolcanoJen]

12. But the original, US "October Surprise" was invented by Republicans...

... more than a handful of whom are still hanging around Penn Ave today.

I'm feeling more exhuberant and positive about our chances in November than I've felt since December 2000. I think this is just one of those fun smoky back-room kinds of threads... ?

Journeyman, I honestly can't think of too many ways in which Kerry could lose this thing. :D

[Bossy Monkey]

16. Sort of serious, sort of fun smoky back-room

Mainly just wondering what people think

To answer Journeyman's question (and partly echo your answer), October surprise only refers to the incumbent. Kerry can trot out any number of surprises, and hopefully will. Could produce foreign leaders publically endorsing him, though in this country at this time in this environment, I'm not sure how much that will help.

Generally though, I am thinking positive. Mainly just worrying that eventually the Busheviks are going to figure out that they can only win with the backdraft from another 9/11. Though I'm not much of a conspiracy theorist, I don't see these swine shrinking from anything if it'll let them hold on to power.

[Yupster]

14. Best two were by Democrats

1. Judge Walsh indicts Secretary of defense Caspar Weinberger the Friday before the election in 1992.

2. Release of Bush's drunk driving arrest the friday before the election in 2000. Completely drowned out Bush's surprise endorsement by Perot the same night.

It's a game both sides play, and Democrats have had great success.

[Yupster]

13. Bush cocaine arrest

will be even better than the drunk driving arrest last time.

[Bossy Monkey]

18. Let's see what prime timeans have to say (kick) n/t