w/ economy "improving" and no core diff. w/ Iraq, should Kerry go Populist

[digno dave]

It's quite obvious he is having trouble formulating a message up until now. I am afraid he may have missed his opportunity to jump ahead of Bush for good with all the bad news Bush has had in the last 2 months. I honestly don't believe there will be a bigger, more deafeating story than the Abu Ghraib fiasco, so Bush may have weathered the worst of it as far as Iraq is concerned.
Regarding the economy, whatever lies beneath all the numbers, the fact remains that on the surface they look good for Bush. On the other hand, Bush has had a three month stretch of good job numbers but the polling #s still show that he lags behind Kerry in regards to the economy.
This brings me to my point...
Kerry has no defining message. The populist messsage worked for Gore in that he got more votes than Bush. Should Kerry try the same tactic? Could a man like him convincingly sell such a message? I am afraid that Kerry is having a tough time connecting with our base and a populist message would go a ways in stirring up that base. It qwould also take some steam out of the Nader message. I just don't know if Kerry has the makings to sell such a message.

[BayCityProgressive]

1. ???

He's already talking about universal college, healthcare for all children and making it harder for businesses to avoid taxes and outsource...what more do you want?

[bleedingedge]

7. But it doesn't matter...

If those messages aren't reaching the populous at large. Sure, a lot of people at DU know about these policies but then we have a vested interest in knowing them - Kerry's our guy.

The population at large, I don't think they know a lot about Kerry's initiatives beyond his general war and economic stances. So in that regard, I gots to side with the original post in the concept that his policy messages are not effective. His message isn't getting out.

While the poll numbers are good for Kerry right now, what concerns me is that, in my gut, I think it has become a "vote against" phenomenon, rather than a "vote for". If that's true (and my gut is rarely wrong, owing to the fact that it is large enough to have its own bubble of psychic energy), then any sort of "good news", be it from Iraq or the economy, will swing votes to Bush.

In the end, I think Kerry's got to find a succinct message - the easy little slogan that can sum up his candidacy. Something like Bush's "Uniter Not A Divider" which, while being a bald-faced lie, was easy for people to grasp hold of. Last night, I had this idea that his convention/acceptance speech should be "America Is Fractured", essentially telling people that his candidacy, while about issues and policy differences, was largely about mending fences, both at home and abroad. The problem with that as a message is that it's negative wording. So it needs to be turned. Something like "Reuniting America", only less corny.

Once he can galvanize his efforts around a sort of "unified field", then all of the policy stuff can be circled around it, demonstrating how his policies support and uphold his "mission".

Or something. Maybe not.

[digno dave]

8. well said

There are plenty of other things that can go wrong for Bush(Plame investigation, Iraq), but this whole concept of leaning on your opponents mistakes is risky and desperate.

[David Dunham]

2. Being to populist may cause him some swing voters.

[lastknowngood]

3. Forget it Kerry is not a progressive and doesn't sound like he

believes anything he is saying, unless the shrub decides to get out before the collapse of the empire it's already over. Try to spend your energy on keeping our losses in the house under 25 and in the senate under 10, that way we will at least keep the "party" from falling into third party status. If we can survive in this gulag long enough the evil bastards will fall.

[theboss]

4. What is a "populist" message in this era?

Every Democrat at every level has been campaigning on expanded health care coverage, universal education, and protection for the middle class for over thirty years. Gore's message in 2000 was mostly just warmed-over Kennedy-isms (the problem being that it tended to ignore where he was working for the previous 8 years). And Kerry is doing that.

But you are hitting on something close to the truth. Kerry's problem is that he has been a Senator forever and Senators aren't good with bold visions. They compromise.

Hence, Kerry's whole platform is couched in those terms. "I'll get out us out of Iraq....eventually." "I'll end the Bush tax cuts....sorta." "I will stop outsourcing....if I can."

He just needs to be bolder.

[digno dave]

6. Gore's populist message played to differences in class

and the broadening gap between the the rich and poor.

[Alerter_]

5. only if Kerry wants to win

If Kerry wants to lose he should starting making speeches praising James Madison CEOs and telling us the answer to unemployment is to outsource more jobs. Fortunately for all of us, Kerry is a smart guy :)

[theboss]

9. The bottom line is policies don't win elections; candidates do

Kerry could come up with "white papers" and "policy initiatives" from now until the end of time, and it really won't really matter. People have to connect with him, more than connect with his policies.

[zbdent]

10. Funny how people can't do the obvious math

"Jobs rose" but unemployment stayed the same.

Meaning, the number of jobs created roughly equaled the number of jobs lost. In other words, one step forward, 1.5 steps back. That is true when you consider that people are exhausting their eligibility, and are not counted in the "unemployed" numbers.

[mhr]

11. The Economy Is Not Improving Only Creating Low Wage No Benefit

jobs!

[soca]

12. Could Bush and Co. manipulate data to falsely prop up the markets?

Then issue revised numbers after the election?

[mhr]

13. 195,000 of the 248,000 Thousand Jobs For May Were Based

On The Birth/Death Model.

This is a mathematical model used by the BLS to "estimate" the number of jobs created based on economic growth.

These jobs were not actually counted and there is no way to determine if they actually exist.

The BLS says the following about the B/D model and suggests why the numbers should be treated with a high level of suspicion.

"The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend."

As an engineer with dozens of math classes behind me, steady state models are not accurate when conditions change. Yet many here and elsewhere treat these numbers as ground truth.

[w4rma]

14. Yup. I agree with your observation, mhr. (nt)

[newyawker99]

15. Hi soca!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[seabeyond]

16. i'd be pulling the last three months of job increases.

find out what it was in, the actual number, and did bush change the formula in feb like he said he was going to do

no one has asked those questions. i think the debunking the numbers in truth will just be another example of bushco not capable of truth

[wuushew]

17. I agree with your premise

Bush had a very rough stretch of things in April and May. People need to look at the facts.

1. Deaths in Iraq are down to the acceptable(for the general public) of one a day or so. The long term Bush strategy in my opinion is continued stop-loss in preparation for an eventual cut and run.

2. Tenet will now be the fall guy for faulty rationale/WMD debacle and boost Bush in the polls a few points. Unless Tenet goes public against Bush like Zinni did the scandal will die down.

3. Gas prices are too unstable to be a reliable political weapon. By all accounts gas should of gone up memorial day weekend, but strangely did not. Adjusted for inflation the price of gas really is not that high. The crises of 73 and 79 hurt more for their time. Perhaps if the price was $2.50-$3.00 and Bush staunchly refused to open the strategic reserves we could get him. As it stands now especially with the Prince Bandar angle he is not that vulnerable.

4. The Electoral college does not favor us. Since 2000 we have lost 10 EV. It is often said that everyone who voted for Gore would also vote Kerry. By the same token *'s devoted fundie base is not going anywhere and they will come out in their historical numbers to support him. Ohio is dangerously close as is Florida. Can Kerry win VW,NH,NV,AR or someother close state?

5. The general level of energy is down since the primaries. People were fired up back in Feburary and March. I don't think the political momentum has lasted and further points to weaknesses in the front loaded primary strategy put forward by the DNC. It will pick up again but by then people will have had months and months of slow uniteresting summer news cycles that do not build antipathy towards Bush 43.