By the 1992 election hadn't the economy pretty much completely recovered?

[ButterflyBlood]

The recession that brought Poppy's numbers into the sewer was over, but Poppy still lost. Does this mean people vote mainly on the economic numbers a year ago and not at the time, and thus * is screwed no matter what happens now?

[Caution]

1. no it hadn't recovered IIRC

but that was the spin poppy's campaign was trying to put on it. Pretty much the same spin they are putting on now. Being in the midst of recovery is NOT the same as actually recovered.

[troublemaker]

2. Yes, there's at least six month lag in public perceptions

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. Unemployment in 1992 was 7.5%. People were having much more....

trouble finding jobs back then and we still are.

The fact is the REAL UMEMPLOYMENT RATE is 10% and at the rate that "new" jobs are being made, Bush will still have a deficit of 550,000 jobs by the time his term is up.

[seabeyond]

4. numbers turned a good 6 months before election

but the people were still in the flavor of a poor economy. and the single snippet of bush buying a pair of sox, and being out of tune with the average person did it to him. he couldnt shake the economic woe the people still felt

i feel the same with bush II. regardless of them saying numbers are going up people arent agreeing and gas and grocery going up, and seeing the schools have more problems, i feel he will carry economy bad regardless of the numbers he produce

still want the skinny on the job numbers. i am one of those that dont believe it. my husband and fatehr owns businesses and i am not seeing businesses spend more

[Skarbrowe]

5. Ross Perot

Didn't Ross Perot pull a heck of a lot of votes from Bush Sr.? I know at least 4 Republicans that voted for Perot in 1992. Personally, I think people simply didn't like Bush Sr. But, I'll never be sure if Clinton would have beaten Bush if Perot hadn't got a lot of the "protest" vote. And god, did the Bush team destroy Perot. Remember? They went after his family and all kinds of things. They actually had him backing away with his tail between his legs. Republicans are VISCIOUS.

Skarbrowe

[seabeyond]

8. ya he did

thanks for reminder. perot telling him he could fix economy, yes. that is why they didnt let it go. clinton kinda slid in there

[leftyandproud]

6. 4th quarter 1991 growth rate was 5.6%

so yeah, the recession was over...but the perception lagged as it always does. Even with indicators looking up now, most people think the economy is bad...this will be good if Kerry wins, because they will start noticing the bounce early next year I think.

[Yupster]

9. And Clinton's campaign was brilliant

"The worst economy in the last 40 years," was nonsense of course, but by drumming it in for a full year, no matter what this months numbers looked like, people had already made up their minds.

[Pepperbelly]

10. "Growth" is a misleading measurement ...

The things that have an impact on people's lives --unemployment, rising wages, low inflation, comfort levels -- mean a hell of a lot more than the abstract of "growth".

[leftofthedial]

7. the worst of it was over

but it hadn't recovered.