When you say to non-Duers, "I knew RR would die this year"

[ursacorwin]

what do they say?

i had a long conversation with my sis, a good liberal but not a news junkie like me. i said to her about st. ronnie's death, "well, a lot of us in the online community have been saying that as soon as the scandals heat up, you can bet he'd die and block out important information from the news cycle." she said this was silly, and totally CT.

i also told her to expect a terrorist attack near convention/election time, and some dude they'll call OBL to be paraded around as well.

she took it all with a grain of salt, but i was put off by the fact that she immediately rejected the idea that anyone could've have easily predicted RR's death.

[sniffa]

1. i

i speak of the 'scheduLing mix-up' invoLving his death. he wasn't supposed to die untiL octoberish.

pLan C time.

[Walt Starr]

2. I predicted a June 2004 death for Reagan to my friends

over a year ago.

They scoffed then.

They are in awe of me today.

[ursacorwin]

3. walt, what's your prediction

for OBL and the attack?

hee hee, it's good to know we have our own nostradamus here!

[Walt Starr]

4. I've predicted both long ago

OBL will be "killed" during "action with troops on the ground in Afghanistan" during October. No real surprise there.

The attack will come late November 2004, but only if Kerry wins the election. Martial law will be declared and the handover of power will be "postponed" due to "national security concerns".

[slipperduke]

6. Perhaps not,

The cynical, nasty side of me predicts a summer disaster in London, an opportunity for you chaps to stand shoulder to shoulder to us in a glittering display of unity so far removed from the 'Stinking Spanish Surrender Monkeys' (copyright Free Republic)

Upshot: Plucky Brits stand firm behind Blair, CNN and FOX provide stirring coverage of the Special Relationship, Bush then Blair romp to victory in elections having promised to take a tougher line with Syria, which oddly enough 'is' the new centre of world terrorism. And they've got Saddam's WMD, besides which, what a terrible human rights record....

Don't mind me, long day at work listening to endless tributes to The Gipper. I am rapidly losing faith in mankind....

[Seemann For Congress]

10. Can you predict a Congressional race in Ohio for me?

Seeing your prognostication proficiency, we'd appreciate it.

[Walt Starr]

13. Hmmm, let me look into the future....

I predict in a surprise win, the 16th Congressional district in Ohio will see an upset of the Republican incumbent and a major win for the Democratic candidate.

Does that help at all?

[tom_paine]

7. I was busy predicting his Conveniently Timed Death

as I have been for 3+ years.

In fact, I was predicting it this weekend, on the back deck drinking a beer. We walked in the house and surprise surprise! Raygun coveniently "dies".

Good timing. But then, the Imperial Family is ALWAYS "lucky" in their timing.

[Yupster]

22. You think this was good timing?

For Reagan to die in the dog days of summer when no one is paying attention to politics and Bush is out of the country? Maybe during the Democratic convention wouldn't have been a little better timing?

Next time I find a 93 year old man with Altzheimers and pneumonia, I will predict his imminent death, and I can be a great prognosticator too.

[tom_paine]

24. You make a good point, but could you predict it to the 3 months period

from 3 years prior?

That's what I have been doing, here at DU, since January 2001. There is ample record of this.

If I had been predicting this for a shorter span of time, I would acceed to the correctness of your point.

But I predicted Raygun would "conveniently" die in June-Oct. 2004 for THREE AND A HALF YEARS

So give it a try and let me know how it turns out. Find a 90 year old man who has Advanced Alzheimers, then THREE YEARS IN ADVANCE, select the three months period in which he is to die.

My guess is that you will find my "feat" (not a feat really, just the intense lifelong study of Totalitarianism and Its Ways) difficult to reproduce.

However, when you do reproduce it, let me know.

Plus, Bunnypants* is reading the eulogy for his funeral, and WATCH the Soviet-style Dead Stalinfest in and around THAT!

[Unperson 309]

26. Here's Another Deadbang Prediction...

You can probably take *this* one to the bank...

If the Bushistas have *any* input into the terrorists' actions, the attack will be successfully "prevented" that would have happened June 11th. Either June or september 11th.

If the terrorists are in control of themselves and their own actions, the attack *will* occur on June 11th.

Why June 11th or September 11, for that matter?

Well, the *original* reasoning I had was the numerical thing. 9/11 3/11, etc. They seem to have a tropism toweard that day in the calendar. Whoever "they" is...

In addition, those dates are FAR more significant now. Long range, the numerological thing is going on, medium range, the sept 11 anniversary of the terror attacks, PLUS being just 8 weeks before the election. *Short* range, because June 11th is going to be a National Day of Mourning and an attack would stir up a veritable hornets' nest!

So you have the two possible dates. Times? June 11th: 11:00 AM EDT if it's the East Coast, 6:00 PM PDT if it's the West Coast; Sept 11th, anybody's guess.

My rationale for the times on 6/11 are thus: 11:00 Eastern gets folks midday. Everyone's in their offices. 6:00 PM western happens JUST as they're beginning preparations for the sunset interment of RWR.

Also the numerology thing, again.

Someone save this and whack me in the face with it when it does/doesn't happen, eh?

309

[tom_paine]

27. Interesting. But I have serious doubts about predicting dates/times

of individual events.

I'll try to remember this. But my predictions are most accurate when they predict trends and trend-based events.

Since the Bush* took over and I started viewing Amerika as a Third-World Dictatorship, my predictions have been 90% correct, up to and including the "summertime 2004 Conveniently Timed Death of Raygun" which I had made in January 2001.

Other (but not neraly all, multi-year correct predictions based on the simple question "What Would Ferdinand Marcos Do?", which, based on my increasing correct % from 60 before 2000 to 90% from 2001-now, is about the best question a person could ask if they want to understand what the Imperial Family Bush will do next) predictions:

1) Said in early 2002 that Bush will unilaterally attack a non-threatening nation like Hitler did.

2) Said Hans Blix won't find anything (maybe a little bit was what I said and he didn't even find that).

3) Said in late 2002 that it didn't matter WHAT Blix found, Bush was going to attack like Hitler attacked Poland.

4) Instantly knew that Colon Foul was lying about everything.

5) Hell, even in early 2001, I said "Bush will shortly drop his phony mask of Moderation and behave as if he'd won the 'election" 90%-10%.

And on and on and on. Oh, I have been wrong about a handful of things, but if we lived in a Free Country, there's no way that ANYONE could be 90% correct in their predictions.

On the other hand, once freedom is crushed beneath Tyrant's Bootheel, as it has been every since December 12, 2000, making predictions is very easy for the same reason the Old Soviet Union was predictable in their lies or why one could astutely fvigue out which lie Hitler was going to tell before he told it.

My 90% figure does not reflect credit on me, except the fact that I've read a lot of history books about Totalitarianism.

My 90% correct prediction figure couldn't be made without the Totalitarianism itself. Thus, I have the Imperial Family to thank for my newfound "skill".

[in_cog_ni_to]

12. Walt,

Would Nancy Reagan do this for the repubs though? For the "chimp"...specifically. She hates the Bush family, doesn't she? That confuses me. Why would she want to help him?

[Walt Starr]

14. Actually, the timing hurts him

Early June is the absolutely WRONG time for this. It's too far from the elections and happens during the NBA finals, which will piss off any and all NBA fans if they pre-empt even a second.

The perfect timing to help Dumbass* would have been one day before the Democratic National Convention.

Rove is in a quandary and he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.

[ursacorwin]

17. i respectfully disagree.

josh marshall and atrios have more on this, but the fact is that the investigations into all the scandal are really heating up. RR's death doesn't necessarily help shrub's election hopes, but it DOES get all the media and thus most americans to stop talking about why Shrub and Dick need lawyers...the bonus of conflating bush with RR is just gravy- and don't think for a moment that we won't have RR stuff at the repub convention.

[tom_paine]

25. Who says she has to help him?

Like asking if Angelo Bruno's wife's assistance was needed for him to get whacked.

http://www.gangland.net/philimafia.htm

Or Marcellus Caeser?

http://24.1911encyclopedia.org/M/MA/MARCELLO_BENEDETTO.htm

(scroll to the bottom)

All that was needed is one Bushevik Operative, and there are 100s of ex-spooks in the Bushevik Private Security Forces, and a "real" Fake ID (that's what happens when a Hitler or a Bush gets control, now everyone who needs a "Fake ID" gets the Real Thing...no problem).

[Minstrel Boy]

5. There's a predictability to a fascist state.

That's why so many of us feel like we've become "seers."

[tom_paine]

8. Exactly. I've been right about 90% of predictions.

Prior to 12/12/2004, I was quite proud of being correct in my predictions about 60% of the time.

Yes, Totalitarian Nations like Imperial Amerika are as easy to predict as Stalininst Russia or Nazi germany.

hell yes, there is a predictability.

And we are NOT seers and I am NOT that brilliant to guess 90% correct. (I'm not brilliant at all, in fact)

It is something else at work here.

[Minstrel Boy]

16. I think it was you, tom, who made me realize this dynamic.

I wanted to quote an earlier post of yours about the predictability of life under fascism, but the archive search function is temporarily disabled.

If there's any stunt we can imagine the old Soviet hardliners pulling - say, the convenient death of a "dear leader" milked for propaganda value - there's no reason we shouldn't expect the same from their counterparts in Amerika.

[ClassWarrior]

9. I don't say that...

I offer a more rational point of view, i.e.:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x1733019

[SpaceCatMeetsMars]

11. People with alzheimer's live an average of eight years after diagnosis

I don't believe for a second that his family would do anything to manipulate his time of death, especially not to help Bush! Ron Jr. has already said many times how much he dislikes Bush.

[ursacorwin]

15. i know that, and actually have gained a little (tiny) bit of

respect for nancy, for when she came out against the dime idea.

but i don't think it would be hard at all to have hastened his end, in the sense that nancy couldn't watch over him 24/7, and as old and sick as he was there must have been a thousand really easy ways to make it happen.

i wouldn't wish his disease on anyone, nor would i endorse what the rethugs are doing with his 'legacy' now. but given that nothing but the worst has turned out to be true of the Shrub Cabal, i'm still very suspicious of the timing here. it's just too convenient.

[sandnsea]

18. cynicism is not knowledge

You didn't know anything. Except that Reagan was likely to die any time because he's old and sick. I really get nauseated by people who are so cynical that literally everything is suspect, then claim to have been prescient when something occurs in the natural order of things. It's as big a load of bullshit as anything that comes from the Limbaugh or O'Reilly.

[Minstrel Boy]

19. And denial is not wisdom.

"I really get nauseated by people who are so cynical that literally everything is suspect"

Literally, everything is.

[sandnsea]

20. No, it isn't

Every single thing that happens is not a plot by the RNC. It's just absurd. The man died, that's all. Nobody "knew" anything.

[Yupster]

23. Agree sand

some people seem to have lost all ability to discern. They claim that others are stupid when they trust everything regardless of evidence, yet they are just as bad when they trust nothing regardless of evidence.

[TrogL]

21. He was 94(?) - what did you expect?