Latest Gallup has Kerry ahead of * by 6, even with Nader!!

[MoonRiver]

Is this the beginning of Kerry's surge? :bounce:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. But is it too soon?

Don't want him to peak too early.

[MoonRiver]

4. My feeling is that this is just the beginning.

We may really be looking at a landslide! Kerry's ads are starting to hit home, and * is looking more and more like the inept warmonger he is.

[lancdem]

5. Don't worry

He hasn't even picked a VP yet, or been officially nominated at the convention.

[GreenPartyVoter]

6. True, those two things will keep the momentum going.

[K8-EEE]

14. Up On Bush At This Point Is NOTHING BUT GOOD!!!

Who woulda thunk it when the Saddam-Propaganda machine was in high gear last Dec??

Nobody ever pays any attention to the incumbant until the conventions, Kerry is doing good.

[lancdem]

2. Some other posters noted that Bush's approval rating

of 49 percent seems high, but that's adults, not likely voters. Also, this poll covers the first two days of the Reagan coverage.

[MoonRiver]

13. I'm wondering what effect chimp's hiring an attorney re: Plame

will have on his numbers. He hasn't retained an attorney, just talked with one, but he's admitted it is likely he'll use him if need be. Maybe that hasn't quite sunk into the public consciousness yet, but it sure will when the guy is on retainer and the media hounds are trying to get statements day and night.

:evilgrin:

[livetohike]

3. No bounce for Bush??

Reagan's death apparently didn't give Bush any points in the polls. Or maybe it did and Kerry's lead is actually wider. :shrug:

[lancdem]

8. It migbt be a little too early to tell

Bush is giving the euology at the funeral, so that will be his "big moment."

[CrispyQ]

15. Think he'll pronounce all the words correctly?

He better start practicing now.

[K8-EEE]

16. This Will Backfire On Shrub!!

GWB has NONE NONE NONE of RR's charisma....he will look like a fool and an opportunist to everyone but the wacko freep types who are a minority, he's goin' DOWN!

[MoonRiver]

9. Yeah! Let's wait until the Reagan effect wears off,

about 2 weeks I'd guess, and then watch Kerry fly! :kick:

[Gman]

7. Does 3 weeks in a row ahead make a trend

I think I read something about that if a poll reflects one of them ahead 3 weeks, or 3 polling periods in a row that a trend has started. Also, note that this poll has Kerry's lead outside the MOE. If Kerry continues this with a lead consistently bigger than the margin of error, Kerry may be truely pulling away.

But, like GreenPartyVoter said, he can't peak too early. That's a big danger right now with Bush blowing up everywhere he turns.

[qazplm]

10. call me a gloomy gus

but I think odds are that Kerry wont be able to break away anytime soon and that Bush may even pull ahead sometime soon for awhile.

Or maybe I am just prepping myself for the worst so I can be pleasantly surprised if the best happens? :D

[NewJeffCT]

17. I'm a natural pessimist

So, I tend to agree with you. The first campaign I was able to vote in was 1988 (I turned 18 a month after the '84 elections....), so I remember Dukakis being up 18 points in August of 1988 only to end up getting whomped on election day.

If * declares victory on June 30 & pulls the troops out of Iraq by September 30, will anybody in America care if civil war there breaks out? As much as * claims to care about bringing democracy to brown skinned people, I honestly don't think most Americans would bat an eyelash if a million Iraqis got killed in the ensuing civil war. The media will just blame Clinton, anyhow.

[MoonRiver]

18. But there's no way * can pull our troops out. He's stated this.

I believe he and his cronies estimated 5 more years of our being there, but I'm real vague on the number of years. I just know that * and Rummy claim we'll have to remain there as a "peace keeping force" (lol). And we will probably be largely alone unless Kerry is elected. He can pull the international community together to help. * can't.

[okieinpain]

32. I'm going to start putting together my survival kit. the repugs are

not going to give up power easily. we've got news stories about bushies mental frame of mind, he's already on record of being afraid of being a 1 term pres like his poppy. I'm pretty sure none of the supreme's resign because of the election in 2000, so are they going to wait 4 more years to see if a repug can beat kerry, I don't think so.

sorry folks but some shit is going to go down in nov04.

[gratuitous]

11. Naw, this ain't no surge

Wait for the convention and the naming of a running mate. Then you'll see a surge. But yes, be still all you beating hearts out there, Chimpy IS in trouble.

Let that be the spur to your efforts! Less than five months to go until Election Day. Run the race set before you, and don't stop until you've broken the tape at the end. This is an historic opportunity to oust an incredibly crooked regime, one that has brought unbelievable shame on our beloved country.

[Frances]

12. The first coverage o f Reagan's death

included Reagan's most famous speeches.

I think seeing Reagan speak and then Bush speak at D-Day ceremonies hurt Bush.

There are important differences between Reagan and Bush. Reagan was not nearly as socially conservative as Bush. And Nancy has spoken out against Bush's policy on stem cell research.

I hope that some religious people who are not total nut cases will prefer Kerry to Bush.

[beyurslf]

19. And Reagan was such a good speaker. You didn't have to agree

and you liked hearing him speak. You knew he understood what he was saying and had a principled stand (even if you didn't agree with his principle). I think all the Reagan coverage could hurt Bush because concervatives will yearn for the day when they had that kind of leader... instead of the yahoo they have now.

[Kahuna]

20. Kerry is running a very smart campaign. I'm glad he's our nominee..

Oops! Did I say that? YES! I did. We need a "smart candidate" to beat the evil bushistas. Kerry seems to pacing his campaign very nicely so that he won't peak too soon. Go Kerry!

[jackstraw45]

21. We have to accept that Friday will be a POLITICAL rally for Shrub

And he'll get a 8-10 pt bounce. That's my sad guess but he's got his speechwriters writing a eulogy and I'm sure it will only contain small words he can pronounce.

Joe Sheeple LOVES to love the shrub. He makes them feel "smart" and "safe."

Remember, George Bush is HERO of the STUPID.

A 90% approval rating tells you something, doesn't it?

[MoonRiver]

22. Actually jack, I don't accept that.

In fact, don't believe it will happen. * is just acting as a figurehead and I guarantee he'll bungle it. He's on the edge psychologically and his learning plus other mental problems will be exaggerated under those conditions. I expect him to flub, big time. Even if he pulls it off, I doubt anybody will be too impressed that he can actually read his teleprompter.

[jackstraw45]

24. My response:

I really do hope I'm wrong. I just know that a lot of people FEEL they should love Reagan because they've been told he was so "wonderful."

If Bush* wrote his own material, I'd be less concerned. But he'll spend 2 days practicing a well written speech that will be seen by MILLIONS of moderate, swing voters.

Now, I'm quite confident they can be won back but it will take time and money.

I REALLY hope I'm wrong. We'll see a week from now.

[MoonRiver]

26. You may be correct, although I think any bump will be short lived.

And Reagan's death is nothing like 9/11, at least I hope Americans are not so crazy as to make any parallels between the two!

[jackstraw45]

30. Why would you think that?

Americans were crazy enough to believe the 9/11 Iraq link that was proven TIME and TIME again to be false. I'm sure almost 50% still believe it.

It's not about 9/11 but about the Shrub using people's emotions for personal political gain.

On Friday, tens of millions of Americans will watch an emotional service with Shrub delivering a well-written eulogy and watch him hug Nancy Reagan.

Like I said, I believe Kerry can even the bounce back but I still believe there will be a significant bounce from the last gallup poll.

[MoonRiver]

33. It's just my gut feeling. Could be totally wrong though!

I'm feeling very good about this polling trend for Kerry. Maybe I'm getting too carried away though. :pals:

[Walt Starr]

27. After seven days of nonstop Reagan crap

the public will be weary of Reagan and may blame Dumbass* for a week of pre-empting their Soaps for this crap.

[calimary]

34. Here's what you can do:

Remember our old friend, the ACTIVISTS' RESOURCE THREAD...

PLEASE NOTE MY SIG LINE – TO CALL YOUR REPS, TOLL FREE!!!

OR, TRY (877) – 762 – 8762. It’ll get you there, too! (Thank you, DUer redqueen!)


Please note, here, The World's Greatest Lists of Media Contacts – updated May 5, 2004– in the following thread:

LINK:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=1533796#


IF THEY THINK WE DON’T CARE, THEY WON’T, EITHER!


WRITE A LETTER TO THE EDITOR, OR A LETTER TO ONE OF THE TV NETWORKS OR CABLE OUTLETS.

These people NEED to know that the folks out there in consumer-land do NOT agree that bush is the rightful "son of Reagan." A Letter to the Editor will help point out that bush can't even touch the hem of Reagan's garment.

Besides, I STILL believe that lots of folks will watch bush that day, making a speech (Reagan's forte) and Just. Not. Measuring. Up. They'll watch him shuffle and mispronounce stuff (chew on his words like somebody who's drunk or drugged, who decides that if you REALLY WORK HARD at enunciating, you'll fool people into thinking you're sober), and they'll be left shaking their heads. The prevailing sentiment gnawing at all listeners/viewers that day, deep down, that they'll try like hell to ignore, will be - "and so, we've come to THIS." Or "My GOD, how far we've fallen..."

[wabeewoman]

25. Gotta agree, Saywhat

I think shrub has met the 'cry wolf' threshold. He has lied too many times, appeared like a bumbling idiot and has lost the confidence of most of the people. There is nothing he can say or do to get it back. That isn't to say he won't try to steal the election again but he won't win it and if he does steal it I think dems are going to take over Congress and then we'll see an impeachment. Likely to be interesting times ahead.

[MoonRiver]

28. Stealing is their only option now. It won't be as easy as in 2000 either.

I for one, and there are millions of "mes" out there, was totally blindsided by *'s compassionate facade (although I still hated him and voted for Gore), and my naivete about how far the Rethugs would go to steal an election. Now Americans and the entire world knows how dubious at best, and dangerous at worst, the * cabal is. Plus we're ready for a dirty election.

[GiovanniC]

23. People Are Skeptical of Bush Now

He's being compared to Reagan, which isn't flattering for Dubya, and every time the moron opens his mouth -- even to say something that's obviously been heavily scripted -- his poll numbers (and the stock market) do a Hindenberg.

Let the boy king speak.

[calimary]

35. Uh-HUH! I seriously believe this assessment is correct.

Observers cannot help but watch bush on Friday and shake their heads to themselves, about what a poor comparison he makes to Reagan. After all, did we not all, fans and foes alike, know Reagan as "The Great Communicator"? I have visions of the old Peggy Lee song wafting through the backs of people's minds... "...is that all there is?" In this case it will also VERY likely be "Is THAT what we've come to?" Reagan will remind everybody of THE glory days - and how VERY long-gone they are by now. bush can't compare. He Just. Doesn't. Measure. Up.

A good meme to be repeated, by the way. Write those letters to the editor, and make sure this inpression gets out there on the record. See post 34 for contact info details...

[okieinpain]

29. so should kerry start refunding all of the money he's collected.

because it starting to appear that the best thing for him to do is not campaign, bush is doing it all for him.

[MoonRiver]

31. Whatever he doesn't need he can donate to other Dem candidates!

That way we can have a real sweep of all governmental branches except the treasonous high court. Kerry can deal with that one later. If we get the correct Congressional composition I plan to start putting on the pressure for Scalia's impeachment.