June Polls for Last 6 Presidential Elections Involving Incumbents

[tritsofme]

Bush is not in the range that Clinton, Reagan, or Nixon were at when they went on to win reelection handily, but he has neither slid down to the level where Carter and Bush41 were at when they lost big. However, his approval does slightly mirror Ford in 1976, where the race in the popular vote went on to be very close. I say this election will stay true to the conventional wisdom, and be a nail biter.

These are the May/ early June approval ratings and horse race numbers for the last 6 presidential elections involving incumbents.

(all info from the Gallup Organization)

June 3-6 2004
Bush Approval: 49%
Kerry 50% Bush 44%

May 28-29 1996
Clinton Approval: 53%
Clinton 47% Dole 30% Perot 16%

June 6-8 1992
Bush Approval: 36%
Perot 35% Bush 30% Clinton 22%

June 1-3 1984
Reagan Approval: 52%
Reagan 50% Mondale 42%

June 10 1980
Carter Approval 32%
Carter 33% Reagan 30% Anderson 21%

June 8 1976
Ford Approval: 45%
Carter 55% Ford 34%


June 13 1972
Nixon Approval: 59%
Nixon 42% McGovern 31% Wallace 19%

[Frodo]

1. I get a kick out of that 1992 poll

With Perot in front.


They called it exactly backwards.

[tritsofme]

4. This was Perot's peak.

And I believe it was before he "left" the race for several weeks.

[2Design]

6. I voted for perot......and always wondered if he had not

pulled out...shortly after that and then re entered...if he would have done so much better...he lost a lot of people with pulling out...

so we got clinton....the next time...I did not vote for perot.... because of his lack of commitment the first time.... I voted for clinton...

[theboss]

8. That election is going to be studied by political scientists for decades

I still think Perot could have won it if he had not dropped out. But I don't think he wanted to win. When he realized that his lark of a campaign actually had a chance to win, I think he pulled out. He also managed to do it at a time when Clinton was just beginning to get some traction.

1992 may have been the second-most bizarre political year of the century next to 1968 (which was more tragic than anything else).

Buchanan challenging Bush. Jerry Brown coming back from obscurity. Clinton fighting bimbo eruptions then becoming the Comeback Kid. Perot being recruited by Cher on the Larry King Show. His fiasco at the NAACP. His accusations of Republicans trying to ruin his daugther's wedding. Just insane all around.

[lancdem]

2. Looks like the guys under 50 percent lost

and the ones above 50 percent won. Bye, Shrub (hopefully)!

[tritsofme]

7. Don't take solace, yet.

Because bush's approval numbers have been creeping back toward their pre-Abu Ghraib levels for the past few weeks, even as his standing in the horserace decreases.

An approval rate 49% could actually be 52% or it could be 46%, or anywhere inbetween. Either way he has not yet sunk to the level of his father and Carter who were beat handily, and that is troubling. He is right in the middle, and this election can still go either way.

[lancdem]

10. Keep in mind that the CNN/Gallup approval numbers

are about 5 points higher than anyone else's. I think the Reagan thing may be giving him a respite because he's not in the news much, but there are other issues on the horizon (such as Plamegate indictments) that are potentially quite hazardous. Also, one's share of the vote can be less than one's approval rating, so that's why he's only getting in the low-to-mid 40s against Kerry.

[tritsofme]

12. At this point approval ratings are probably less volatile and

more reliable than horserace numbers.

However it is very encouraging that for the first time since April 16 a candidate has taken a lead outside of the MOE.

Besides approval improving while *'s standing in the horseraces declines, I also find it odd that this poll has Kerry doing best in "likely voters" while bush doing best amongst "national adults."

Conventional wisdom says that Republicans should fare better among likely voters.

Also I have always considered Gallup to be the gold standard in national polling, and I put them far above the other outifts.

It is also interesting to note that Zogby shows the race tightening as well.

(edited to say that I meant to reply to post 10)

[lancdem]

16. In the Zogby poll, the only fluctuation is in Kerry's

share of the vote, not Bush's. He's still at 42 percent, which isn't very good, frankly.

[tritsofme]

18. But dubya's approval rating edged up to 46%

in that poll IIRC

Also, Zogby's special sauce always makes me wary of his results.

[notadmblnd]

13. I think they want this election to be as close as possible

the closer it is the easier to steal the votes.

[Kolesar]

3. 1976: Carter 33% Reagan 30% Anderson 21% ? ..... never mind

edit: I was thinking those were final numbers, not mid June numbers.

[2Design]

5. thanks

[PROGRESSIVE1]

9. ...

[LTR]

11. Got the 2000 numbers?

That would be interesting to see.

[lancdem]

14. No incumbent was running then

[LTR]

17. Doh!

"...involving incumbents"

I see, said the blind man.

[tritsofme]

15. 2000 Graph:

[tritsofme]

19. kick nt

[BrotherBuzz]

20. Interesting

With all the media hype I hear lately, I would have thought Reagan would have been ahead of Clinton by a country mile....

Clinton Approval: 53% (May 28-29 1996)
Reagan Approval: 52% (June 1-3 1984)