Did the Bush Campaign Just Admit That Dems Are Ahead by 10?

[liberalpragmatist]

Check out this quote:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5181338/

LOS ANGELES - Democratic candidate John Kerry leads President Bush 51 percent to 44 percent among American voters in a two-way race for president, according to a Los Angeles Times poll published Thursday.

Kerry’s margin of 7 percentage points shrinks only slightly to 6 percentage points, 48-42, in a three-way race with independent candidate Ralph Nader getting 4 percentage points, poll results show.

(snip)

Bush campaign officials blasted the poll as "a mess."

"Bush is leading independents by three, ahead among Republicans by a larger margin than Kerry is ahead among Dems, and we are down by seven. Outrageous," senior adviser Matthew Dowd told NBC News in an e-mail.

"And it gets worse," Dowd continued. "They have Dems leading generic congressional ballot by 19. This means this poll is too Democratic by 10 to 12 points. Apparently the Los Angeles Times has uncovered a Democratic revolution in this country that has happened in the last 10 days."

***

Maybe I just misunderstood, but it looks to me like Matthew Dowd just admitted that Dems should be ahead on the Congressional ballot by *only* 7-9 pts. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[geek tragedy]

1. Republicans again complain that the

facts are biased against them.

I hope Kerry has a "You're no Ronald Reagan" saved up for the debates.

[w13rd0]

2. MoMo Dowd...

...is saying that since Congressional races Dems are up 20, but Kerry is only up 10, it means that it's Dem biased by 10 pts. Yeah, it's a "what the f**k" moment as MoMo's head explodes. No MoMo, people trust Democrats more, but Kerry is still working on convincing them. Independents are breaking for Dems in congressional races big time. Dowd is just an idiot.

[gasperc]

3. 10% scares them less than 19%

they are getting terrified that alot of working class republican voters that they have clinged to by thread are ready to jump ship on a colosal scale. Dowd is desperately trying to "downplay" the results before panic sets in. Hopefully, they keep themselves safely isolated in their cocoons until well after election day. the only shock is that they are shocked that a majority of people have caught on to their snow jobs and smoke screens. Let's not be deluded, they are feverishly concocting new "themes" to keep their voters in the fold.

[lancdem]

4. I have seen nothing in the L.A. Times article

about Bush leading independents by 3 in the poll. Does anyone have a link? How does Dowd know that?

BTW, did the Bush campaign complain about the CNN/Gallup poll that also has Kerry stretching his lead, to 6 points?

[SheilaT]

5. At least some Democrats who ought to understand this stuff,

are more worried of Kerry having a very large lead going into the general election, than merely 5 or 6 points. The reasoning is that if it's at all close, all the Democrats and all those who want Bush out of office will come out and vote for Kerry. But if Kerry seems to be ahead by 20 points, all the Nader people will think, Oh good, I can vote for my guy. and all the Dean die hards will think, Screw this, I'll stay home. Or maybe even write in Dean's name. It's a much scarier scenario than a closer election.

My source is Joe Trippi, whom I sat next to at last Thursday's barbecue at the Take Back America Conference in DC.

[lancdem]

6. Very good point

although a close race will be very nerve-wracking!

[KittyWampus]

7. In Kerry Ahead By 20 Scenario, What Would Help?

[SheilaT]

8. Don't know.

It did seem to me that Trippi was saying that Kerry out too far ahead was a possible nightmare scenario. It could be a little like 1948, when Republicans were so utterly convinced that Dewey would win, that many of them didn't bother to vote.

At the table, when that was being discussed, we got on to the problem of the Diebold machines. Everyone, naturally, thought they boded ill. I tried to make them understand that there were who knows how many other ways to steal the election, and I just could not get through. There was a lack of understanding that with a Republican Congress still in power through January 20, we have much to be worried about.

[andino]

9. I really don't think that after Florida

any democrat would contemplate not voting this election...

But then again Americas attention span is about as short as a .... What was I saying? Awww nevermind...

[SheilaT]

11. (Smiling) How right you are.

I was saying that one of the ways the election can be stolen is this: Since the state legislatures certify the slate of electors who actually cast the ballots for President and Vice President, all it would take is a couple of Republican dominated legislatures to decided, to certify the Republican slate even though the Democrat carried that state.
The discussion I got into that evening centered around this. The woman I was talking with did clearly remember that the Florida Legislature was going to certify the Republican slate no matter what, but since the count was stopped with Bush was ahead, it didn't matter. She was absolutely convinced that if that were to happen, the Congress would reject the Republican slate of electors, and I couldn't convince her that the current Republican Congress would NOT reject that slate -- I think she thought the electors actually go to DC and that the Congress wouldn't themselves accept the wrong group.

What I'm not sure of is what states which are likely do go Democrat (Kerry) actually have Republican legislatures and this could be a problem. I think Missouri, already considered a swing state, is one.

[John_H]

12. LOL! I think Kerry is safe from a 20 pt lead--this race will be close.

All those Chimp Bucks and ruthlessly dirty campaigning will make sure of it. Sounds like Trippi was just shooting the shit.

[radfringe]

10. it's their M.O.

if they can't spin the message they attack the messenger
if they can't attack the messenger then they pull a Sgt. Shultz

if the poll showed bush* ahead -- would it still be a mess?