Why didn't Reagan address PEAK OIL?

[Deja Q]

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm

AIDS, iran contra, 1980 hostage crisis, ketchup, you name it - there's too much for me to repeat. The Smoked Gipper never addressed the worst crisis of them all: The depletion of oil.


The global oil production curve is simply a composite of the contributions of individual nations. However, different countries are in varying stages of production. Some peaked long ago (the USA peaked in 1970 -an event predicted by Dr. Hubbert in 1956), some will peak very soon (the UK in 1999), and some are a long way away from peaking - see graph below. These latter countries will soon find themselves supplying an ever increasing proportion of the world's oil needs as we pass the global Hubbert Peak.


www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net is another good resource, except it's dropped all the subpages, condensed them into one dreary long page with big advert's for the lawyer author's new shiny book. (I won't pay the sod to read about how we're going to die... it's all freely available to the internet, he even says so himself.)

[garygnu]

1. PEAK OIL

Possibly cause he thought there were bigger fish to fry, and as far as peak oil, my brother in the military just informed me that CHINA has purchased assloads of fuel consuming military equipment and that and its growing capitalism is the buzz in the military on why oil will skyrocket.

Sorry, a little off the subject but just happened to see the thread

[Deja Q]

2. You think he can think? As for China...

His actions proved he was either thoughtless, naive and/or lacking in foresight (which should be the trait of ANYBODY in that Oval Office, therefore all fish are equal size - how the hell is oil LESS important when our whole impirial expansionist society rather depends on the slime...), or just plain hateful (obviously forgetting his "Christian" heritage)...

As for China, no surprise from me. They need all that oil so they can build their little cheap plastic American flags for us. The War that truly will end all wars is nigh.

Welcome to DU. :bounce: :party: I love your name... from an early 80s kiddie show I used to watch... Great Space Coaster as I recall, I'd mentioned it a couple weeks back in someone's post in the Lounge...

[ContinentalOp]

12. re: great space coaster...

No Gnus is good Gnus for Gary Gnu :)

On a more topical note though, I wonder how much gas that "Great" Space Coaster guzzled?

[Massacure]

3. One thing about peak oil

Ethanol production is increasing yearly. Won't ethanol production grow faster than oil production declines? Especially as prices begin to rise right as we hit the peak? Especially in the U.S. and perhaps Europe.

[Deja Q]

5. Ethanol = corn. Farmland being sold by poor farmers. Land sold is torn

up to make houses. Land can't be reused to grow crops without considerable effort.

One drought destroys a lot of potential fuel.

Most damningly, it's not pure corn juice, there's plenty of fossil action goin' on in it too...

Besides, all the SUVs will make up for the difference in no time flat.

As our population grows and need continues.

Not to forget petrochemical fertilizers. O8)

Our economy is based on debt and growth in order to sustain itself.

There is no way we can continue to sustain ourselves without a massive paradigm shift that has to happen in about 34 years ago. I'd say 24 but we should have woken up before the early 1970s oil crisis. We sure as hell didn't and we're worse off than ever before. It just hasn't killed us. Yet.

And who is that massive paradigm shift going to hurt the most? THE WEALTHY because they're the top of the economic heap BASED on our expansionist oil-hungry culture. And they're not going to change their lifestyle for the 99% of us who are poorer.

[Massacure]

9. Corn is good food, but it can go to hell in terms of fuel

There are many better crops for fuel, for example switch grass, willow trees, or suger cane. Switch grass and willows are natural to the envrionment, and don't need extensive use as fertilizer or irrigation like corn.

Currently there is construction underway that when finished will bring ethanol production capacity to 400 billion gallons a year. That would translate into about 1.09 billion gallons a day. How many gallons are in a barrel? 55? That means about 19.8 billion barrels a day of ethanol will be produced.

It would takes a little bit of restructuring, but I think the U.S. could switch to ethanol efficienctly within a decade. Make more extensive use of railroads instead of semi trucks for carrying goods. Then increase fuel efficiency of cars.

[gbwarming]

11. 42 gallons/bbl.

Energy content of Ethanol is lower than gasoline or diesel however.

[Deja Q]

15. Sounds nice in theory, but what about motor oil?

(and while it's good that grass can be used (will the cost to turn it into fuel be just as cheap though??), we still need to grow the stuff at high rates. Once again, it simply is not sustainable.

We also need to lower our rate of consumption, regardless of what can be done. And that's going to cause big problems with our (utterly naff) economic system.

[Fenris]

6. Ethanol production won't out pace oil consumption.

Prices will continue to rise. It's inevitable. Ethanol production would barely make a dent in the price.

[gbwarming]

10. Ethanol production is TINY. 90 million bbl/year. We use 20 million/DAY

Ok, Ethanol production projections, including plants under construction, is for 3745 million gallons/year. That requires something like a Billion Bushels of Corn, not to mention the energy costs of diesel and fertilizer for production and distillation

http://www.ethanolrfa.org/eth_prod_fac.html


This site says that Ethanol production in 2003 used 10% of the grain crop. It only produced ~1% of the liquid fuel we use.
http://www.ksgrains.com/ethanol/useth.html

[struggle4progress]

4. He was an "optimist." Talking about limited oil is "pessimistic."

Carter tried to address it. The couch potatoes heard him, felt bad, didn't like feeling bad, and voted for Ronnie.

[Deja Q]

7. Then we, as a society, deserve our destruction.

"We, the people" we are not.

What's left to say? If people are too (remained unsaid in a vain attempt to maintain civility over the (ditto) inhabitants of American society) scared to face the truth, they deserve no less.

Am I cynical and cold-minded? Yup. They'll just blissfully whine when gas prices get up to $4 with our media playing them up as the (ditto) moronic fools as they are.

On the other hand, knowing the end, being ignorant may have been preferable when you add in how the mainstream public just doesn't give a (ditto). :shrug:

[Nay]

13. Exactly, Struggle. No one wanted to hear the truth from that

depressing old Carter guy. They wanted smoke blown up their asses, and that's what they got.

[Deja Q]

8. Some more FRIGHTNING news:

The likelihood of a global crisis similar to that of 1973 is very high. The precise timing is dependent on the durability of Saudi Arabia's pro-Western stance, and hence on the stability of the current political regime there. This is because Saudi Arabia is pumping more oil than it needs to, in response to Western (mainly US) political pressure (see graph below). In fact, it is highly likely that if Saudi Arabia were to cut its oil output by 20%, it would actually increase revenue from sales, as the resulting supply shortfall would push prices up significantly. This must be very tempting for a country whose debt to income ratio is approximately 2:1. It is highly conceivable that there will be a change of government in Saudi Arabia within 5 years. This will serve to bring forward the onset of a crisis which, as it stands, is coming anyway.

[leftofthedial]

14. he was distracted by a troubling premonition

of Clinton's penis

[Deja Q]

16. Well, he was a bit loopy back then, that's for sure...

LOL