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My crystal ball says--
1. Abu Ghraib is not the third rail, it is the triangle shirtwaist fire. After it happens, it does not matter who we run. Kerry needs to consider that when choosing a veep. Play to the base. I have a really bad feeling about the new Iraqi government's longevity.
2. Saudi Arabia is collapsing. We will be fighting a war on the ground in SA by the end of the year, beginning of next to support the Royal Family. Two words-- President Diem. Will Kerry go in? I am afraid so.
3. In SA, we will be fighting the war of half a dozen Fallujahs all the time, every day. We shall see how the new privatized military performs fighting UbL in his backyard with 75% of the Saudis on his side. Three words-- Ho Chi Min. With Americans fighting in Mecca, all bets are off, in terms of terrorism. We will find out how many nukes our Pakistani allies sold the Saudis. Indonesia will go off the reservation, we will be too busy to deal with it, or indeed care.
What would we do at that point if Pakistan or Afghanistan collapses?
4. World oil supplies will plummet as transport and extraction are through a burning war zone/environmental disaster. Think GWI, only much bigger. How much will gas cost? How much you got? There will be price fixing, rationing and black market gas -- $6 gal. Hummers will still get a tax break though.
5. December draft announcement, regardless of who wins, unless it's Kooch. In which case, all of the above will happen in SA, except we won't be there.
The Wahabbists will own the joint sooner or later. Prices will go up and SA will go through the same nightmare that Iran went through in the 80's, except that they won't even be able to pump their own oil for a couple of nightmarish years, and the economy and society is not as vital as Iraq. Nor is it ready, on other terms than oil, for anything business but theocratic tourism. Really, I am not kidding.
6. I support Kucinich because he is the candidate I believe can actually think outside this Armageddon shaped box. Sure I will vote for Kerry, but I assert that we will be asked to commit to a far grander presence in the region, fighting main force in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. If we do so, visualize Vietnam as a holy war with a massive stream of martyrs, and Ho Chi Min with nukes.
I have to hide the crystal ball from the nurse who brings the thorazine.. ciao.
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