Kerry, victory, and numbers - Democratic Underground

Gom Jabbar

(66 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Thu Jun-17-04 12:03 AM
Original message

Kerry, victory, and numbers

Edited on Thu Jun-17-04 12:39 AM by Gom Jabbar

Right away, you should know that the premise for this thread is that the most important task ahead of us all is getting John Kerry into the White House. By this I mean putting Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Cambone, Feith, Rice, Rove, Powell and the rest of the Wild Bunch out of government.

I am a great admirer of Kerry; he was my candidate during the primaries, and I think we'll be lucky as hell to have him in office. But I am also one of the guys who would have happily supported Dean, Clark, Edwards and indeed each and every and any of the candidates we had in the primaries, should any of them have won through.

Yes, even Big Joe. Why? Simple. Putting Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Cambone, Feith, Rice, Rove, Powell and the rest of the Wild Bunch out of government is, without doubt, the most necessary and immediate requirement for the future viability of the country and the planet. Should we accomplish this, we can deal with the larger PNAC influence, the War on Drugs, the environment, and even the DLC, with a degree of home field advantage that seems utterly fantastical compared to our curent estate.

If that's not your bag, the rest of this will bore you.

That's the Electoral College map from 2000. Uuuuugly. The score, if all that red hurts your eyes, was 271 to 266.

This is the Electoral College map for 2004. Note well the additions and subtractions. Known Republican strongholds - Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado, Texas - have gained Electoral College influence. Known Democratic strongholds - New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan - have lost Electoral College influence, offset partially by the one-vote gain in California.

We lost Florida in 2000 for reasons well known by now. Today, Florida remains lost. I think Kerry would be a fool to spend energy and funding trying to win Florida. I know that's painful for Floridians to hear, because the debacle unfolded in their front yard, and that's still raw. But Jeb Bush is still dealing the cards, and only a total gomer puts money down at a table well known to be crooked.

We lost West Virginia because the Bush campaign convinced the coal workers that Gore was en environmental extremist who would utterly annihilate the industry they worked in. Today, West Virginia is back in play.

These are states Bush will win in 2004:

Texas
Florida
Georgia
Mississippi
Alabama
Tenessee
Kentucky
Indiana
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
North Dakota
Colorado
Arizona
Utah
Idaho
Wyoming
Alaska
Montana
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Louisiana
Iowa

These are the states Kery will win:

California
New York
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Illinois
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Massachusetts
Maine
Vermont
Connecticut
Rhode Island
New Jersey
Maryland
Delaware
DC
Hawaii
Oregon
Washington

Put those in the bank and the score is Bush 209, Kerry 203 (if my math is correct. If it isn't, it's close enough to support my point, I hope).

States in play:

New Hampshire: 4
West Virginia: 5
Missouri: 11
Arkansas: 6
New Mexico: 5
Nevada (5)
OHIO: 21

-------------------------
= 57 up-for-grabs Electoral College votes.

Missouri and Arkansas lean Bush, though we have three spokespeople (Gephardt, Clark and Clinton) who can help there. New Hampshire leans Bush definitely, but Kerry's proximity might help. Nevada leans Bush, but a lot of people seem to think Yucca Mountain will play a big role in 2004. New Mexico and West Virginia lean Kerry, but need to be fought for.

Ohio is the ballgame. Period.

The purpose of all this is twofold:

1. We are positioned well at this point to win the Electoral College, though Osama, Diebold, the media and/or any number of Bush allies could deliver the prize to him in a day. The polls favor Kerry, the war goes poorly, and wouldn't you know it, Michael Moore is about to stick a pin in the Bush-9/11 hero veneer with Oscar-level skill. The game is yet afoot, but I do like our chances.

2. It has been said again and again and again here (I've lurked for well over a year, and read voraciously here while I did), but I wanted to say it again. Win first. Nothing whatsoever is improved by losing. Is Kerry a savior? No. Is he a start? Yes.

Food for thought:

That isn't going to happen without the first victory. This is the first victory, and we have it within reach.