Please email the experts regarding the Bush job numbers.

[Eric J in MN]

I wrote an article titled "Fake Job Numbers from the Bush Administration Paint a Rosy Picture," questioning the Bush job numbers.

http://www.moveleft.com/moveleft_essay_2004_06_07_fake_job_numbers_from_the_bush_administration.asp

While I can raise questions, it would be better for someone like Paul Krugman, NY times writer, or Robert Reich, former Clinton Labor Secretary, to investigate.

Is the "CES Net Birth/Death Model" a valid estimate?

Does the Bush Labor Dept. use it accurately and consistently?


I've written each of them, but because they may get hundreds of emails a day, they are more likely to take note of the questions about the "CES Net Birth/Death Model" if more people write them.

Please ask Paul Krugman and Robert Reich to investigate the Bush Labor Dept. job numbers, especially the "CES Net Birth/Death Model."

[e-mail]

[e-mail]

[DeepModem Mom]

1. kick

[althecat]

2. hey Eric J... I didn't realise you were that Eric J.....

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0406/S00092.htm

of BBV and DU fame... it is amazing who you meet around here...

we ran this too...

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0406/S00129.htm

which has a stab at emplaining some of the descrepancies..

al

[leftchick]

3. This article says unemployment near 11%! yikes!

http://www.currentconcerns.ch/archive/2004/02/20040201.php

Virtual US Recovery in Trouble

<snip>
But, you say, unemployment is falling? That depends how you count. Under US Labor Department methods, you are not counted as unemployed unless you are actively looking for a job. If you have given up finding one, you simply disappear as a statistic. Hundreds of thousands of jobs have vanished in this way, yet official unemployment is listed as 5.6 % of the active workforce.
The government has different measures of employment. If we add underemployed who would take a full-time job if offered, and add those who simply have given up finding any job, total US unemployment would be 10.9 %, not the headline 5.6 %. And that is only using official US government data, Table A-12, 'Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization.' But that number is never reported to the press. Private economists suggest the real number is even significantly higher. And even using other official measures of new job creation, the job gain is lower than in any post-recession since the War.