Okay, I'm really worried that Jack Ryan's Going to Withdraw

[liberalpragmatist]

If that happens, bet that the party leaders will work furiously to get Jim Edgar to reverse his earlier decision. He's the former Governor, a pro-choice moderate, and he's quite popular. I worry that he'd be formidable and Obama would lose.

Can somebody reassure me?

[Padraig18]

1. Edgar won't touch it.

Bad ticker, happy teaching and spending time with the grandkids, and Brenda would divorce him--- seriously. Not gonna happen.

[liberalpragmatist]

2. I hope you're right

I assume Judy Baar Topinka's got her hands full enough trying to prevent the party's implosion to actually herself run for the seat. She's the only other candidate I think would be a threat.

[AP]

3. IL republicans strategy might be NOT to compete in this race.

I know. It sounds crazy. But hear me out. Obama is a formidable candidate. He's going to win. They run anyone else, it's just going to get the black vote out in Chicago, which is going to help Kerry win the state.

Maybe Republicans are thinking that if Ryan stays in, people will not show up to vote. Obabma will still win, but it will give Bush a chance to win with by drawing all the non-chicago R and moderate voters out of the suburbs and southern part of the state to offset the low Chi. turnout. The non-chi vote will still vote for Obama over Ryan, but they'll split the ticket with a vote for Bush, and the sure-Kerry voters will have stayed home because they would have seen Obama as a sure thing.

[Tatiana]

4. Obama has really energized the IL Dems.

He's polling well all over the state. Not just metropolitan Chicago, but downstate as well. Kerry will win this state solidly and Obama will win in a landslide.

[AP]

5. If he's polling better than Kerry, then there are ticket splitters out...

...there, and those are the people who might still show up to vote if Ryan stays in.

The ones who stay home might be the Kerry-Obama voters (Black voters in Chi., specifically).

Do you know the Kerry numbers and the Obama numbers for IL?

[Padraig18]

7. Last poll I saw was

Obama 54, Ryan 38. Sun-Times, I think...

[AP]

8. And how's Kerry doing in IL? 45-44? That would explain when they

wouldn't want chicago black voters to be excited about the senators race. It could be the MOV for Bush.

[Padraig18]

13. No, no, no! Kerry was doing VERY well in IL, last poll I saw.

Chicago Tribune had it at 55-42, or something...

[AP]

16. Well then nevermind.

[Padraig18]

6. Bush won't be on the IL ballot.

He will miss the Aug 30th filing deadline, and the Leg isn't gonna budge on changing it.

[AP]

9. More details.

I've heard this said before, but I think it's impossible that Bush wouldn't be on that ballot.

[Robbien]

12. The GOP convention misses the Illinois ballot deadline

The Democrats will not amend the voting regulation without adding extras on to the amendment. Illinois Dems never give something for nothing. The GOP refuses to sign off on all the extras.

The squabbling goes on and on.

[LTR]

22. Check this out

http://www.illinoisleader.com/news/newsview.asp?c=15467

Bush still not on Illinois ballot

Wednesday, June 02, 2004

By The Leader-Chicago Bureau

SPRINGFIELD -- The name "George W. Bush" or "Dick Cheney" may not appear at the top of Illinois' November 2 General Election ballot.

As the Illinois General Assembly went home on Tuesday warned they could receive a 24 hour notice to return if a budget agreement was made, there was no agreement to modify the state's election law to allow President Bush and Vice-President Cheney on the fall ballot.

“The Republicans will have to go to a federal judge and get a declaratory judgment to get Bush on the ballot,” Kris Kray, legislative liaison for the state's election board, said.

That is exactly what may happen, State Senator Wendell Jones (R-Palatine) told IllinoisLeader.com today.

"I think the federal judges would put the President back on the ballot," he said. " are not going to vote for it when it comes to the floor. We want a bill that puts Bush on the ballot without loading it up.”

[Robbien]

10. No one is going to ruin his career by getting into the race against Obama

There is not enough time. Anyone going in this late against such a strong contender would just end up being cannon fodder.

[salin]

11. There is ALWAYS someone vain enough to ruin their career

think... Daryl Issa - throw all that money at the recall... assume YOU will be the guy... hang in the race even when the PTB select a *gasp* moderate movie star... then after proclaiming he would stay in the race one day - he tearfully gets out of the race. What a bafoon. But there is always some vain rich fool around who can be talked into "that he really has a chance if he spends his money" - IF the GOP thinks it is better to have a different candidate - in terms of helping shrub... They did the same thing with Michael Huffington to lure him into the Cal senate race a number of years ago... promised him if he self-funded... that the national party would kick in a million or so (and guess what - that national money... never was kicked in...)

[Robbien]

14. The GOP didn't expect to have to spend all this money

on other state Senate races which they thought were locks for their guys. Now that those races are in play, the GOP has to pick and chose which ones to throw money at. Ryan was a good choice for Illinois because he is funding his own campaign. Anyone going into this race in his place will know up front he will have to supply the support himself.

[salin]

17. Good point... perhaps HE was/is the Daryl Issa/Michael Huffington

candidate - just even more self-destructive...

[ItsMyParty]

15. I know nothing about your Illinois politics....but

..when I heard it, and saw that certain republicans called for his withdrawl, I wondered what might be in the wings. Perhaps something like this cropping up in October would mean a slam dunk Dem victory; but now I wonder who they would put up that might be exciting to republicans. I hope this doesn't backfire (apparently he was not doing very well against the Dem to begin with).

[salin]

18. Any big ego GOP Congressmen

who might let their ego get ahead of themselves and jump into the race?

[Padraig18]

19. Ray LaHood (R-Peoria)

He also despises Ryan, btw...

[salin]

21. Noticed how quick he was to rebuke Ryan and call for his stepping

out of the race.

So why does LaHood despise Ryan?

[Padraig18]

27. LaHood despises him because he's a slime ball...

Same reason we do.

[salin]

28. I don't know LaHood

if he is disgusted by slimeball repubs - but slimeball repubs who (at one time) had a (long) shot at retaining a senate GOP seat... that would suggest that LaHood has some decency... something that is getting harder and harder to find in the younger crop of GOP congressmen/women.

[Robbien]

29. Maybe you might want to hold off on that determination

You are of course aware that Chris Bell filed ethics charges against Tom DeLay. Well, LaHood tried to ram through (possibly unconstitutional) legislation in the House to stop Bell's charges. It failed, but LaHood is going to try again next week.

[salin]

32. then there must be another reason LaHood seems to be

against Ryan - the "sleeze" problem shouldn't be an issue if he is protecting DeLay - can't get much slimier than the bugman.

[Robbien]

23. Do you really think he will give up his powerful seat on the

House Appropriations Committee for an iffy Senate seat run?

Plus, I just checked with open secrets where it doesn't appear that LaHood has the kind of money to self-finance a campaign.

[terrya]

20. I have this nasty thought...Jim Thompson?

Think of it...Thompson has new visability because of the 09/11 commission. He's still popular in Illinois...God only knows why....

Is this even possible?

[davsand]

24. I doubt they would run Thompson or Edgar either.

Thompson may have some dirty laundry out there in the form of his work after he left office. I'll grant you, none of what I've seen has been confirmed in regular sources--but if you do a Google on Big Jim, you will see some stuff that links him to Steve Neal's death as well as money laundering for drug lords.

I hate to admit this--but I wondered what they had on him when the Bush cartel put Thompson on the 911 panel...

As for Edgar, do a Google on his name and the name Kemper (as in the insurance company) and you may realize why he never ran for the Senate in the first place. There was an article in the Illinois Leader (the GOP rag) about the fact that Edgar doesn't want to face questions about his time on the Kemper BOD after he left office.

To be brutally honest, I'm wondering just who the GOP has got to put in that race if Ryan does step down... He may well be about the best they could do.

Laura

[terrya]

26. You know, what you said about Edgar is food for thought. I wondered...

how he could resist Karl Rove's blandishments to enter the race after Fitzgerald announced he wasn't going to seek re-election.

I just bought that "Brenda doesn't want it and I don't either" stuff Edgar always said about seeking office again.

I'll do the Google search. Thanks. :-)

[Padraig18]

30. Two of his nephews are friends and customers of mine.

Jim seriously wants no more political offices. He's quite happy teaching, traveling and spending time with his grandkids.

[dansolo]

31. Oberweiss

Didn't he finish second in the primary? He is very conservative, which the faithful will like, and he has the money to pay for the campaign himself. If they are going to put up a sacrificial lamb, he seems like a good enough choice. I can't see Edgar jumping in now.

[davsand]

33. The Dairy guy would be the kind to do it, that is true.

The Conservatives will push Raushenburger, however, and then you have that same split in the Repub. party coming back to bite them on the backside. It killed them in the Primary, and would most certainly kill them in the General.

I can see either of those guys going up against Obama, however. They certainly have egos that are big enough that they'd be tempted. It would still be a race that favored Obama, however, simply because I think the GOP in IL will not turn out. Especially if Bush isn't on the ballot, (think of the image of NO top end on that ticket!) I can't imagine them flocking to the polls in numbers strong enough to offset Obama and his strengths.

It is an interesting idea, however.


Laura

[salin]

25. mr try to make there appear to be no discrepency between cheney

and bush's misstatements about saddam being involved in 9-11, and the commission's finding that there were no collaborative contacts - after an attempt at discussions in 1994? That Thompson?

If there is anti-bush sentiment in Illinois - that final act as COmmissioner as "cleanser" for bushco - may have just linked him a little to tightly as a bush appologist and enabler... enough to be a bit of a liability.