CNN Money: Stock market points to Bush loss in November

[Worst Username Ever]

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. That's good news for President Bush, because if past stock-market patterns hold true this year, he will lose his bid for re-election in November.




http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/23/markets/election_stocks_bush/index.htm?cnn=yes

[aquart]

1. Because Republicans are so goooooood for business.

[Worst Username Ever]

2. Replying to my own post like a loser

snip

In fact, Tower said, of sitting presidents, only Franklin D. Roosevelt has been re-elected, in 1936 and 1940, after a worse stock market performance than Bush has suffered.

"It would seem that the Republicans desperately need a summer rally to bolster their chances," Tower wrote.


snip



My take:
I would like to point out that as the fed raised the discount rate, stocks will generally fall. A summertime rally is unlikely. Those that trade in individual stocks, might I recommend selling call options? It is unlikely that the market will sky rocket this summer given political strike and rising rates, you might as well make some sideways money.

[mopinko]

3. i, personally

cannot imagine that stock traders did not look at the selection of w and think, this place is going to hell in a handbasket. i know they are thought of as republicans, but when your money is on the line, you don't want a moron at the wheel.

[denverbill]

4. Recall that in 2000, the market started to sink as the campaign heated up.

And people started to realize that it was possible the idiot would actually get elected.

[radfringe]

5. stock market and bush*

it's sort of a running observation on the stock market thread that everytime bush* opens his piehole the markets take a dump

well, this phenomenon was similarly observed during the summer of 2000, when the campaign between bush* and Gore was heating up. During that time period, when polling results were announced - if Gore was ahead the markets went up, if bush* was ahead markets went down.

it will be interesting if we see the same thing happens over the next couple of months...